A suspicious new user on the prediction market Polymarket just made bank on the Trump administration’s military strikes on Venezuela.
The account, which was created on December 27, has only bet on two things: the U.S. invading Venezuela, and its president, Nicolás Maduro, being forced out of leadership by January 31. The user bet $35,000 when the market estimated the probability of intervention in Venezuela at only 6 percent.
Thanks to their very lucky bets, they made over $400,000 in less than a day.
The timing of the account’s bets—and its creation—is certainly suspicious. According to reports, U.S. military officials initially discussed bombing Venezuela on Christmas Day, but reversed course after deciding to pursue airstrikes against ISIS in Nigeria instead. In the days following Christmas, officials held off on the attacks due to the weather.
Trump announced his strikes on Venezuela, and his abduction of Maduro and his wife, early Saturday morning. While he did a good job at keeping the attack from being leaked to the media, it seems someone on his team had no problem leaking the news to Polymarket—and making themselves quite a bit richer in the process.
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