On a forgettable Thursday night, the Broncos became Raiders of the Lost Art.
They won, beating Las Vegas, despite finishing with more penalties (11) than first downs (10). There is winning ugly, and there is delivering a victory while looking like Freddy Krueger.
In the six games since, the Broncos have averaged 24.5 points per game. As the excitement bubbles about the postseason, it is important to remember how vulnerable the Broncos are. They have trailed in 12 of their wins. Their negative turnover margin cannot be ignored.
But there is a takeaway as important as the takeaways: it is time for Sean Payton to shine.
The Broncos invite skepticism, though it diminished this week when Jim Harbaugh decided to play the Junior Varsity Chargers. They make it hard to believe.
The ship is currently swaying after an underwhelming performance in Kansas City. And when the waters are choppy, the captain is who you look for.
To quote Walt Whitman, “O Payton! My Payton!”
Payton always tells his players, wisely, that they will play in bigger games. It is how he has reframed expectations for three years until the Super Bowl became the only thing that mattered.
The Broncos are entering the portion of the schedule that brought him out of his one-year TV hiatus. This is when legacies are enhanced, and in the case of Payton, a Hall of Fame resume is enhanced.
Every reason for coming to Denver — strong ownership, diehard fans, terrific facilities — can make sense over the next month. Clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed, secure homefield advantage, and get the bye. Do that, and only two victories would stand between the Broncos and Super Bowl LX.
So, suddenly, and at least a year ahead of schedule — given the dead cap issues — Payton finds himself in the spotlight.
Time to goose the offense.
We know D-coordinator Vance Joseph is under pressure to produce more turnovers. That does not absolve Payton.
When the Bills smoked the Broncos in the playoffs last January, was it Joseph’s fault that Payton abandoned a plan to run, leading to quick drives and a heavier lift for the defense? Yes, James Cook riddled Denver on the ground. It is also hard to win when your offense fails to score on its final seven drives.
It’s important to remember how that game looked when the Broncos line up on Sunday.
Payton must find answers in his reading peepers; dialing up more chunk plays. There are times when, looking at the concepts and routes, he is a master. And there are times — the Raiders game, the first half of the Chiefs on Christmas — when the Broncos look like impostors, especially in the red zone.
Let’s make this simple: The Broncos will beat the Chargers. And they must build confidence in the process.
Despite facing backups, Payton views this as the start of the playoffs. OK, so no excuses for easing off the throttle.
Success depends on balance, finding a way to maximize Bo Nix, while not forgetting about R.J. Harvey, whose ability to extend drives will benefit Denver in a few weeks. That is when they will face the lowest remaining seed, with the Texans, Bills and Chargers as the potential candidates.
It is easy to find critics who believe the Broncos’ “Been There, Done That” AFC West championship gear will be replaced by “One and Done” T-shirts. It happens. Peyton Manning struggled coming off a bye as much as anyone.
And yet hope exists if Payton can get this offense to click.
Why? Nobody knows who the best team in the NFL is. Or if some of the playoff teams are any good.
The Texans could suffocate the Broncos with their defense. But they could also gift wrap a victory given how C.J. Stroud plays on the road. Justin Herbert is a miracle worker. His offensive line, however, is a dream crusher.
And for all of the praise of Josh Allen — he is the reigning MVP for a reason — the Bills lost last weekend without the Eagles completing a pass in the second half. Again, when the Broncos return to the playoffs in two weeks, the field will be wide open.
Payton cannot let the pursuit of the top seed affect the Broncos’ disposition. No time to turtle, and then ask the defense to set up a game-winning field goal. Make danger a stranger.
The Broncos need explosiveness. Nix rushing for 50 yards and Evan Engram matching him in receiving yards would go a long way in reshaping the opinion of the Broncos’ postseason chances.
It will require play-calling imagination beyond wide receiver screens and swing passes out of the backfield. Just because a team plays zone — the Chargers will feature a steady diet of the same principles the Chiefs employed on Christmas — that should not negate big gains.
It is tougher, sure. But this is where Nix’s legs can make a difference. Where Engram can help. And where repeated small chunks can open up a deep strike to Marvin Mims Jr.
That is what is missing. Think back to the Jaguars game. Jacksonville gave up three first-half sacks, and Liam Coen never lost his nerve. Trevor Lawrence hung in the pocket, took hits, and delivered dimes to multiple players who racked up yards after contact over the final 30 minutes.
Payton is at his best when he is cocky and aggressive. He was not himself last season in Buffalo. And truth be told, his team was not ready for the big stage.
Externally, doubts remain. Wins in the next three games can provide vindication.
Hiring Payton gave the Broncos buzz. Now, as the franchise enters its most important stretch in a decade, they need him to provide them with an edge.
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