What About Ranger Suarez for the Cubs? ...Middle East

We knew the Tatsuya Imai posting would move the market – as in, necessarily, because one of the top starting pitchers had to sign by January 2 – so it’s only reasonable that, in the wake of his signing, we have a lot to discuss on the pitching side today.

Because of the previous rumors, it does make sense that Zac Gallen would pop back up in discussions about where and how the Cubs pivot. But he’s not the only free agent starting pitcher attached to a Qualifying Offer to whom the Cubs have been at least loosely connected this offseason.

There is also outgoing Phillies lefty Ranger Suarez, whose market was discussed by a couple insiders after the Imai signing. Figured it was at least worth a mention, given the hard looks at pitching today.

Mark Feinsand writes, “Like [Framber] Valdez, Suárez has been linked to the Mets and Orioles throughout the winter, which is hardly a surprise given their respective needs for starting pitching …. The Braves, Cubs and Angels are also looking for pitching help, with Suárez – another player who rejected a qualifying offer – among the potential targets.”

The Cubs get the mention there, though you’ll note that he’s described as among the “potential” targets for the Cubs. Not necessarily a big reveal.

Jon Heyman writes, “The Orioles, Giants, Mets and Cubs are among teams linked to Suárez. He has elite command — he was judged having the best command in MLB and above-average location with six different pitches — but he hasn’t logged the enormous number of innings of Valdez.”

“Linked” is a little more active, though that doesn’t remove it from the world of speculation, as opposed to definitive pursuit.

Ranger Suarez, 30, is less of a front-of-the-rotation guy, and more of a very, very good 2/3 guy. Consistent, too, and it’s going to get him a deal likely north of $100 million, even in spite of the draft pick compensation angle. I have my doubts about the Cubs going to nine figures on any starting pitcher these days, but I’m sure they’d at least be happy to hang around if the big bidders aren’t loving Suarez’s command/control/groundball profile.

Michael dug in deep on Ranger Suarez earlier this offseason when the Cubs were first mentioned in connection with the lefty, so here’s a healthy chunk of that background and analysis if you missed it:

First, the three negatives: (1) Diversification, (2) Injury History, and (3) the Qualifying Offer.

(1) Diversity (or a lack thereof): On the surface, Ranger Suarez is not the type of pitcher we had in mind for the Cubs this offseason. In fact, as a soft-tossing, contact-managing left-hander, he’s a bit more of the same at a time when we suspect the Cubs will want to diversify (which is why, for example, they were so serious about Dylan Cease). And that is especially true after Shota Imanaga accepted the qualifying offer.

(2) Injury History: Moreover, Suarez has not been a particularly healthy or prolific pitcher throughout his career.

But there are two pretty immediate and easy counterarguments/caveats to both of our first two points.

On the lack of diversification, sure, we may think the Cubs want (or should want) to diversify their rotation for the sake of protecting themselves against an unexpectedly weaker defense or more friendly winds at Wrigley Field (also just to have different looks for opposing teams). But also, the Cubs clearly have a type. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, and Matthew Boyd are all relatively softer-tossing left-handers who, when at their best, succeed by managing contact.

I could be very easily convinced that the Cubs believe that particular profile is well-suited for their current defense and ballpark. Or that they’re simply undervalued in free agency.

And as for the injuries/lack of innings … it’s not 2008.

The 104 starts Ranger Suarez made from 2022-2025 ranks 34th (of 153 qualified starters) in MLB over that stretch, between Max Fried and MacKenzie Gore. And his 588.1 IP over the same period ranks 33rd, between Freddy Peralta and Sandy Alcantara/Tarik Skubal. Would we all love it if he had no history of injuries? Sure. There absolutely are guys like that out there. Cease was one of them. But Ranger Suarez is simply not much of an outlier in the modern game.

Moreover, with a significant amount of starting pitching depth (Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad, Colin Rea, Jordan Wicks, Jaxon Wiggins, etc.), the Cubs are pretty well-suited to mix and match starters all year to keep guys healthy at the cost of a few missed starts.

And lastly, the qualifying offer. Because Suarez received and rejected the Phillies’ qualifying offer, he is attached to draft pick compensation. Which means if the Cubs sign him, they’ll forfeit their second-highest pick in the 2026 MLB Draft (plus the associated bonus pool space) and $500K in IFA funds.

But here’s the thing: Because the Cubs are expected to lose Kyle Tucker, they’ll be gaining a compensatory pick of their own. And just yesterday, they completed a trade with the Astros, acquiring $250K in IFA bonus pool space. In other words, the relative/opportunity costs there have already been mitigated.

So … how about the positives? There are a lot!

The Positives

From the widest lens, Ranger Suarez, is — and simply has been — a very good pitcher for four straight seasons: 3.59 ERA (3.57 FIP) and 12.2 WAR (19th in MLB over that stretch). And he’s arguably been getting better as he ages.

For example, look at this blossoming ratio between strikeouts and walks:

For a contact manager, his 3.75 K/BB ratio over the last two seasons (21st best in MLB) sure looks pretty good.

And then there’s the contact management stuff, wherein, despite already being among the best in baseball, he continues to improve as the years roll on.

From 2022-2025, Ranger Suarez’s 87.1 average exit velocity (t-9th in MLB) and 6.2 barrel% (t-13th) are among the very best in the game. Shrink that to just the last two seasons, and he ranks second for both. And I haven’t even gotten to the best part yet, his groundball rate.

For his career, Ranger Suarez has a 52% groundball rate. Over the last four seasons, it’s 49.3%, which is just outside the top-5 in baseball.

That, of course, is good all on its own, but perhaps especially potent in front of what figures to be a very stout Cubs infield defense, with Gold Glove candidates or former winners at every position.

And I’m just going to add a buffer line here, because I want you to sit with the previous thought for an extra second: Whether you realize this or not, the Cubs’ defense is among the very best in MLB. So there is some added, idiosyncratic value for them with pitchers that allow the ball to be put in play (but do so with control).

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