I cannot underscore how much this outcome sucks. Happy freaking new year.
After a months-long wait, with very little in the way of actual rumors, it is perhaps no surprise that Japanese ace Tatsuya Imai is signing with a team no one expected:
Star Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai and the Houston Astros are in agreement on a free agent contract, sources tell ESPN.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 1, 2026Tatsuya Imai's deal with Houston is for 3 years with opt outs every year, sources tell ESPN. When terms are announced, it'll be the largest AAV for a Japanese pitcher coming over outside of Yamamoto.
— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) January 1, 2026Sucks for lots of obvious reasons, but also because the Astros weren’t known to be for sure looking at the top-tier of starting pitchers. So now one of those pitchers goes off the board without taking the Mets, Phillies, etc. with him.
We’ll see what the terms are when it all shakes loose, which will allow us to better project (retcon?) how badly we think the Cubs missed here. For all we know, he never had any interest in coming to Chicago anyway, even if the deal winds up looking like a good risk on paper.
Either way, I’m still very disappointed that this is not happening for the Cubs, and I’m scrambling mentally to figure out where they go from here to add a front-three starting pitcher.
UPDATE: The deal maxes out at $63 million, though the structure will still be important to see for a full evaluation:
The Astros are in agreement with Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai on a three-year contract, source tells @TheAthletic. The deal maxes out at $63 million and contains opt outs after every season.
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) January 1, 2026Obviously, even if the structure is extremely player-friendly (I presume it is), that total guarantee is drastically lower than folks had originally been expecting for Tatsuya Imai. Clearly the concerns about how he’ll translate to MLB were prevalent among all suitors.
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