UNC will open conference play Tuesday night when it hosts Florida State at the Smith Center. The Tar Heels are currently 12-1 and ranked No. 12 in the most recent AP Poll.
As it stands, Carolina is far from the NCAA Tournament bubble, where the team resided for much of last season. Here’s a quick rundown of where UNC is in other analytical rating systems as of Dec. 29:
Why so low?
Notably, in some (or all) of these metrics, 12-1 UNC sits behind four-loss teams such as St. John’s and Florida, as well as teams like Kentucky and Kansas which the Tar Heels defeated in head-to-head matchups. Why is this the case? One major reason is that Carolina has not been completely dominant in its “buy games,” that is, games against mid-major teams at home. UNC hosted Radford, Navy, USC Upstate and East Tennessee State at the Smith Center, yet failed to win any of those games by 20 or more points. It should be noted that in each of those four games, the Tar Heels led by 20 or more points in the second half before taking its foot off the gas.
The NCAA’s NET ranking takes margin of victory into account. Take Illinois, which is 9-3 overall but sits above UNC at No. 10 in the NET. The Illini and the Tar Heels both have three Quad 1 wins, but Illinois has been much more convincing in its lower-tier games. Illinois beat Missouri (Quad 2) by 43 points on a neutral court and, of its four Quad 4 games, has won three by margins of 40, 43 and 58 points. Illinois has also played six Quad 1 games compared to UNC’s four.
The “quad” metric relies on the NCAA’s NET ratings, which are updated daily. Quad 1 games are the most valuable for a team’s rating and can be acquired in three different ways: playing a team ranked No. 30 or higher at home, playing a team ranked No. 50 or higher on a neutral court, or playing a team ranked No. 75 or higher on the road. Quad designations fluctuate with the NET’s daily updates, so a Quad 1 game today could turn into a Quad 2 game later in the season if the opponent goes on a losing streak.
UNC’s four Quad 1 games so far were against Kansas (No. 16, home), Michigan State (No. 13, neutral), Kentucky (No. 27, road) and Ohio State (No. 43, neutral).
The NET plays a direct role in determining a team’s seed in the NCAA Tournament. If Selection Sunday were today and the seeds were meted out solely by NET (other factors are taken into account in actuality), UNC would be a No. 4 seed. The latest “Bracketology” compiled by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has UNC as a No. 5 seed.
Where does the rest of the ACC stand?
The good news for UNC is that the ACC is much improved this season, with several more Quad 1 opportunities to be played. As of Dec. 29, UNC has eight more Quad 1 games remaining and five more Quad 2 games. Of the eight Quad 1 games, six will be on the road (SMU, Cal, Virginia, Miami, NC State, Duke). Why is this important? Road games have the loosest restrictions for Quad 1 designations (NET No. 1-75), meaning it is far less likely a potential road Quad 1 win for UNC sinks to Quad 2 or lower later in the season.
Currently, 11 ACC teams are in the NET’s Top 75. UNC is the second-highest conference team in the NET behind No. 3 Duke. Other notable teams include No. 17 Louisville, No. 24 Virginia, No. 32 NC State and No. 36 Clemson. And while the ACC is still far from the height of its powers, the league performed much better in the non-conference slate than it did last season. League members notched several key wins in the ACC-SEC Challenge, including Duke (vs. Florida), UNC (at Kentucky) and Virginia (at Texas). It was a far cry from last year, when league won only two games in the Challenge.
The ACC is done with non-conf major conference opponents until Feb. 14 (just 3 left overall). Here is a comp of the last 2 seasons at this point:
2025-26Major Conf W-L: 38-39Q1 W-L: 16-31NET Top 75 teams: 10
2024-25Major Conf W-L: 16-50Q1 W-L: 10-50NET Top 75 teams: 6
— Bryan Ives (@awaytoworthy) December 22, 2025
Teams to keep an eye on
Obviously, UNC would be well-served if its four Quad 1 non-conference opponents – Kansas, Michigan State, Kentucky and Ohio State – continued to play well to keep their Quad 1 designations. Fortunately for the Tar Heels, the Jayhawks and Wildcats appear to have shaken off some early-season struggles, while the Spartans are rock solid national contenders. The Buckeyes will be the wild card. At No. 43 in the NET, Ohio State is near the cut-off for Quad 1 wins on a neutral court (No. 50). Any slip by the Buckeyes in the Big Ten could cost the Tar Heels a key resume booster.
UNC (and the ACC at large) should also hope the league’s middle-of-the-pack teams, such as Miami, Cal, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, don’t fall victim to upsets from basement-dwellers such as Boston College and Georgia Tech.
Statistical leaders
Freshman Caleb Wilson has his fingerprints all over UNC’s early-season success. Wilson currently leads all ACC players in rebounding (10.8 per game) ranks sixth in scoring (19.6 points per game) and fourth in blocks (1.5 per game). Wilson’s teammate Henri Veesaar isn’t far behind on the glass, with his 9.2 rebounds per game ranking fifth in the league. Veesaar also ranks second in the ACC in field-goal percentage at 64.1. Ironically, Veesaar only trails former Tar Heel Ven-Allen Lubin, now playing for NC State.
Veesaar and Wilson both also rank in the ACC’s top 25 in minutes per game: Veesaar checks in with 30.6 (the only Tar Heel averaging 30 minutes per game or more), while Wilson sits at 29.3. Kyan Evans is UNC’s leading assist man with 3.9 per game, which ranks 14th among all ACC players.
Featured image via Todd Melet
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As ACC Play Begins, Where Does UNC Men’s Basketball Stand? Chapelboro.com.
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