A change of formation and more direct play have been key in Dominic Calvert-Lewin hitting the best goalscoring form of his life. Here’s how the Leeds striker has started to thrive.
Given the physical profile of so many of Leeds United’s summer signings ahead of their return to the Premier League, it is almost a surprise that it has taken this long for them to go more direct.
Six of their 10 recruits were 6-foot-1 or taller, with the club clearly focusing on brawn as they attempted to prolong their stay in the top flight beyond a single season. After two consecutive seasons of all three promoted clubs being relegated from the Premier League, the challenge looked like a big one, and manager Daniel Farke decided that big players would be needed.
But any aim to use a style of play that suited having big players wasn’t particularly obvious from the early part of their campaign. Through the first 12 games of the season, Leeds ranked 11th in the Premier League for the proportion of their passes that they sent long, with 11.5%. It was by far the lowest proportion of the promoted clubs.
There had been occasions when they had used long balls, and when they did, they started to see the better side of one of their sizeable summer signings: Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Playing direct balls up to him meant he was more involved, and he is a brilliant hold-up centre-forward. When Leeds also managed to get players close to him, he did a good job of bringing them into play.
But it was almost as if Farke wasn’t willing to fully commit to a more direct game, seemingly cautious about finding the right opportunity to test it out in a real-life game rather than just on the training ground.
It took the pressure-free environment of being 2-0 down away to Manchester City and looking very much without a hope for the German to give it a go. The results since have been remarkable, and Calvert-Lewin has been the biggest beneficiary of the switch.
At half-time at the Etihad, Farke withdrew wingers Daniel James and Wilfried Gnonto, who hadn’t been able to retain possession on the break, and switched to a 3-5-2 formation, with Calvert-Lewin joining fellow big man Lukas Nmecha up top.
Within four minutes, Calvert-Lewin had pulled one back, and Nmecha equalised 20 minutes later. Although Leeds went on to lose to a stoppage-time Phil Foden winner, it was the start of a fantastic run for the club and their new centre-forward, all centred around a tweaked style of play.
Since then, Leeds have gone five games unbeaten, picking up more points in this run (nine) than they had in their previous 12 league matches beforehand (eight). It hasn’t been an easy run, either, including wins over Chelsea and Crystal Palace, and draws with Liverpool and, on Sunday, away to a Sunderland side who boast one of the best home records in the Premier League this season. Calvert-Lewin has scored in every game.
It means he has scored in six successive Premier League games for the first time in his career, becoming only the 11th English player to do so for any club. He is the first Leeds player to score in six top-flight matches in a row since John McCole in 1959-60.
It goes without saying that Farke’s decision to switch formation and alter his side’s approach isn’t the only reason for Calvert-Lewin’s hot streak, but it has certainly helped.
Leeds have gone from playing 11.5% of their passes long before the City game to 13.8% in their last six games. They were averaging 10.3 open-play passing sequences of at least 10 passes per game, but that has dropped to 6.7 per game. Their average possession has gone from 48.3% to 43.8%. They are playing 381.3 passes per game, down from 427.8.
And with those changes, their output at the sharp end of the pitch has skyrocketed. They are scoring 2.3 goals per game, up from 0.9, and their expected goals is 2.0 per game, up from 1.2. They are having more shots (15.5 compared to 12.2) and more touches in the opposition box (28.2, up from 21.7). Calvert-Lewin has been key to it all.
With the ball coming forward more quickly, he has been able to stay higher up the pitch rather than coming deeper in search of the ball. In Leeds’ first 12 games of the season, 14.2% of his touches were coming in the opposition box. That’s up at 22.8% over the last six games.
It follows that his goal threat has shot up, too, with his xG going from 0.30 per 90 over the first 12 games to 0.86 per 90 to the last six. He has scored seven goals from just 15 shots in those matches.
He is getting into much better goalscoring positions, something that is highlighted by his extraordinary goal map, which tells a story of a player focused on finding positions close to goal. The positions of his Leeds goals almost create a line from the goal to the penalty spot.
He has never been an exceptional finisher, underperforming compared to his xG in eight of his 10 Premier League seasons. Since his debut in December 2016, only Gabriel Jesus (-17.1) has underperformed his xG to a worse extent than Calvert Lewin (-16.9).
So, rather than relying on his finishing, he has worked hard to get into dangerous positions more often, and it has worked wonders.
He has also benefitted from a greater focus on set-pieces. Leeds have been better utilising their size at dead balls in recent weeks, generating 0.83 xG per game from set plays alone in their last six games, compared to 0.35 xG per game in their first 12 matches of the season. Two of Calvert-Lewin’s last three goals have come from set-pieces: both from throw-in situations.
The effects of these changes have combined to fire Calvert-Lewin into the best goalscoring form of his career. He appears to have particularly enjoyed playing with a strike partner.
“I enjoy having bodies around me”, Calvert-Lewin said after the recent win over Palace. “It can be a lonely role up there on your own. With bodies around you, you can link play, and I think that’s why I’ve had success recently.”
However, there may be more changes in the coming weeks, perhaps back in the direction of what had come before. After Joe Rodon’s withdrawal half an hour into the draw with Sunderland with an ankle injury that Farke said “doesn’t look too good”, Leeds changed back to a 4-2-3-1 formation with Calvert-Lewin’s strike partner, Noah Okafor, moving out to the left.
But such is the confidence with which Leeds are playing at the moment, it didn’t hurt them. They generated 1.67 xG to Sunderland’s 0.16 in the second half, and did more than enough to win the game.
As well as proving that they could thrive in a different formation should Rodon’s run of 101 consecutive league starts for Leeds be ended, they also showed with Calvert-Lewin’s second-half equaliser that they don’t only succeed through long balls and set-pieces (though they did carry plenty of threat from such situations, including one direct ball up to Calvert-Lewin that he laid off expertly for Brendan Aaronson, who failed to take advantage).
The goal they scored concluded a passing move from back to front that involved all 11 of Leeds’ players – only the second goal involving all 11 players scored by any team in the Premier League this season, after Rio Ngumoha’s goal for Liverpool against Newcastle in August.
It is necessary, however, to note that this is a small sample size. Calvert-Lewin’s goalscoring run is significant, but it is also a hot streak that will come to an end. Leeds’ current run of form has given them a very, very good chance of survival, but Farke, who has been relegated from the Premier League twice before, will know how quickly things can turn at this level. Two West Ham wins – however unlikely they might seem right now – would put Leeds just one point above the drop zone. Their current position is overwhelmingly positive, but it remains fragile.
But while they have Calvert-Lewin getting on the end of chances so close to goal and high on confidence, they have every chance of extending their stay in the top flight.
After a few years at Everton when it appeared his career might be stagnating, he now has the full belief of his new manager. “I’m not surprised by Dominic’s run of goals,” Farke said on Sunday. “He’s one of the best strikers in this league.”
On current form alone, it’s difficult to disagree with him.
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