NFL Christmas Day Predictions: Which Teams Will Take Home a Holiday Win? ...Middle East

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NFL Christmas Day Predictions: Which Teams Will Take Home a Holiday Win?

The NFL Christmas slate doesn’t have as much appeal as the league hoped when scheduling these games. But there are still plenty of reasons to watch.

Not every present under the Christmas tree is something you’re genuinely excited to receive.

    There’s bound to be a pair of socks or a dust buster to open before experiencing the joy of unwrapping that new smartwatch.

    The NFL tried to give us three enticing gifts this Christmas, but sometimes even presents given with the best intentions miss the mark.

    Five of the six teams playing on Thursday made the playoffs last season, but four of them have already been eliminated while another is in need of a Christmas miracle to make the postseason.

    Despite the fact these games have lost their appeal, there are still reasons to watch.

    First, all the games feature a pair of division rivals, so that should give these matchups some extra juice.

    Second, some of the league’s top players at their positions will be taking the field across these three games, so there’s incentive to tune in and watch them perform.

    Third, it’s the NFL and you own a TV. Need I say more?

    This year’s Christmas trifecta kicks off from the nation’s capital.

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    Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders

    A three-game winning streak to close November helped the Dallas Cowboys stay relevant in the playoff conversation.

    Two straight losses to open December, however, put a significant dent in any postseason plans and they were eliminated with the Philadelphia Eagles’ NFC East-clinching 29-18 win over the Washington Commanders on Saturday. Then for good measure, the Cowboys’ losing streak extended to three games with Sunday’s 34-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.

    The Commanders’ latest loss was their ninth in 10 games, and the Cowboys contributed to this brutal stretch, rolling to their most convincing win of the season – a 44-22 thrashing in Week 7. Dallas (6-8-1) has won four of the last five meetings with Washington (4-11), scoring 45, 38, 34 and 44 in those victories, and is considered the favorite in this one by the Opta supercomputer, winning 64.8% of pregame simulations.

    Despite the Cowboys’ struggles, Dak Prescott is still enjoying a Pro Bowl-caliber season, trailing Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford by four yards for the most passing yards (4,175) while ranking third in passing touchdowns (28).

    He threw three touchdown passes in the October meeting and has routinely tormented the Commanders, going 12-2 against them with 30 touchdowns to just five interceptions for a 108.2 passer rating – the highest for any quarterback who has played at least 10 games against Washington.

    In Week 7, Prescott exposed the Commanders with play action, and that has been one of the best ways this season for Dallas to beat opposing defenses. Conversely, defending play action has been a nightmare for Washington.

    On the season, Dallas’ average yards per pass out of play action ranks second only to the Seattle Seahawks, while Washington’s average of 10.9 yards per pass allowed out of play action is the NFL’s second highest, with only the Kansas City Chiefs’ average of 12.2 being worse.

    Two months ago, Prescott only attempted two play-action passes, but he completed both for a total of 91 yards. He connected with CeeDee Lamb on a 74-yard touchdown with the pass traveling 37 yards through the air and checked down to KaVontae Turpin for a 17-yard pickup.

    Given both teams’ tendencies, Prescott and the Cowboys shouldn’t have trouble moving the ball through the air via play action and returning to the win column for the first time since Thanksgiving.

    Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

    Fifty-one weeks after the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings met in the 2024 regular-season finale with 28 combined wins and the top seed in the NFC at stake, these teams take the field in Minnesota bringing up the rear in the NFC North with 15 combined losses.

    Although it’s been a trying season for the Lions a year after they won a franchise-record 15 games, they haven’t yet been eliminated from playoff contention. With Sunday’s gut-wrenching 29-24 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Lions are 8-7 and needs to win their final two games and have the Green Bay Packers lose their final two contests to earn a wild-card berth. The Opta supercomputer puts the Lions’ playoff odds at 6.6% but likes their chances against the already eliminated Vikings (7-8), giving them a win probability of 65.9%.

    The Vikings, coming off Sunday’s 16-13 win over the New York Giants for their third win in a row, won this season’s first matchup 27-24 in Week 9 at Detroit by shutting down Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions’ high-powered ground game.

    Gibbs’ 13 rushing touchdowns are tied with the Packers’ Josh Jacobs for second in the NFL and he ranks third in average yards per rush at 5.3. But he rushed for just 25 yards on nine carries in the first game against the Vikings.

    The Lions came out with a 12 personnel on 49.2% of their offensive snaps, and on those 30 plays, Minnesota stacked the box with seven defenders more than usual at 76.7% of the time. On the season, the Vikings stack the box with seven defenders 57.9% of the time when an offense is in 12 personnel.

    Out of the 12 set with seven men in the box, neither Gibbs nor David Montgomery could find room to run, with Montgomery carrying the ball seven times for 25 yards, averaging 1.7 yards before contact. Gibbs ran five times for 17 yards, averaging 2.2 yards before contact. With Minnesota focused on stopping the run, the Lions finished the game with just 65 yards and averaged 3.3 yards per carry.

    On 43 carries out of a 12 personnel against seven defenders in the box on the season, Montgomery is averaging 3.8 yards per carry – the seventh fewest out of the 31 running backs with at least 20 such carries. This is a far cry from when Detroit lines up in a 11 set against seven defenders in the box, with Gibbs averaging 6.9 yards and Montgomery averaging 6.6, ranking them second and third in the NFL behind the Los Angeles Rams’ Blake Corum’s average of 7.2.

    Getting the ground game going behind Gibbs and Montgomery is essential for the Lions to find success, and Thursday’s winner will likely come down to if Detroit is able to move the ball by handing off. The Lions are 8-1 when rushing for at least 100 yards but 0-6 when failing to reach the century mark. The only other teams to have that many losses without a win when failing to rush for 100 yards are the 6-9 Miami Dolphins and 3-12 New York Jets.

    Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

    Six of the last seven AFC conference title games have been played at Arrowhead Stadium in late January.

    This season, however, the Chiefs’ final home game comes on Christmas.

    But there will be a team with eyes on the AFC’s top overall seed and the right to host the conference championship game taking the field at Arrowhead on Thursday.

    The Denver Broncos arrive in Kansas City tied for the best record in the AFC, though one misstep could potentially not only cost them a first-round bye but also drop them into a wild-card spot.

    Tied with the AFC East-leading New England Patriots for the conference’s best record at 12-3, the Broncos are just one game up on the Chargers in the AFC West. They lost to the Chargers in Week 3, and they’ll meet again in the season finale in a game that could decide the division and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

    The Broncos’ loss to the Chargers on Sept. 21 was their most recent setback until they were embarrassed at home in Week 16, falling to the AFC South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars 34-20.

    The Broncos’ stingy defense was gashed, but it has an excellent opportunity to get back on track against a 6-9 Chiefs team that has seen its season spiral out of control.

    The supercomputer has Denver winning 78.3% of pregame simulations.

    A week after Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL, Kansas City’s disappointing season reached a new low Sunday with backup Gardner Minshew injuring his knee in a 26-9 loss to the three-win Tennessee Titans.

    Third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun was sacked on four of his 20 passing plays and now faces a defense that leads the NFL with 63 sacks – which ties last year’s franchise record.

    Pro Bowl edge rusher Nik Bonitto and All-Pro defensive lineman Zach Allen are the leaders of the defense and are both looking for bounce-back performances after struggling against the Jaguars.

    Bonitto is tied with the Packers’ Micah Parsons for fifth in the NFL with 12.5 sacks and has an adjusted sack rate (8.8) that ranks second behind the Cleveland Browns’ Myles Garrett (8.9) among qualifying pass rushers. But he was unable to apply pressure on Trevor Lawrence, failing to get a sack while registering a pressure rate of 13.3. He entered Week 16 with a pressure rate of 27.5 – fifth among the 38 edge rushers with at least 200 pass rushes.

    Allen entered Sunday with a pressure rate of 20.7, but didn’t pressure Lawrence once on any of the five plays he was sacked. Fellow defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers was able to sack Lawrence twice, bringing his season total to a career-best 7.5.

    Minimum 200 pass rushes

    Denver sacked Mahomes three times in a 22-19 Week 11 victory, winning on Wil Lutz’s 35-yard field goal as time expired.

    The Broncos are now going for the season sweep, something they haven’t done since 2014, when Peyton Manning was their quarterback. Denver is also looking to end a nine-game losing streak at Kansas City – its longest active road losing streak against any team, as well as the Chiefs’ longest active home winning streak against any opponent.

    If Bonitto and Allen can snap back from Sunday’s subpar showing and the Broncos can apply pressure on whomever is quarterbacking Kansas City, Denver is in good shape to secure its first victory at Arrowhead since 2015 and close in on the AFC West crown.

    For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

    NFL Christmas Day Predictions: Which Teams Will Take Home a Holiday Win? Opta Analyst.

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