Read our Ashes Fourth Test preview and prediction as Australia look to win a fourth successive Test in this series and compound the misery on England.
The series is done, the Ashes urn is locked away for another 18 months, but can England at least salvage some pride and avoid a whitewash? The Boxing Day Test is as much a part of an Aussie Christmas as Boxing Day football is a part of English festive sporting tradition.
If England can overturn the odds and steal a win at the MCG then it would provide at least some cheer for those Barmy Army fans arriving for what was expected to be a pivotal part of the series.
Moving on to Melbourne
Since the start of the 2013 Ashes, Australia have won 16 of their 18 home Test matches against England, the only blemishes in that record being a pair of draws, one in Sydney in 2022 and one in Melbourne in 2017.
That draw at the MCG in 2017 saw Alastair Cook hit a famous 244*, however the tourists were denied a rare victory by a belligerent Steve Smith (102*). When the sides met four years later in 2021 normal business was resumed as the hosts won by an innings despite accruing just 267 first innings runs and an 82-run lead.
Scott Boland cleaned up England’s second innings with figures of 6/7 from just four overs – no bowler has ever taken 6+ wickets in a men’s Test innings having bowled as few balls.
England’s last win at the MCG came in 2010. Australia were bowled out for just 98 in their first innings, one of just two occasions they’ve been dismissed for less than 100 at the iconic Melbourne venue (83 v India, 1981). England surpassed that total without losing a wicket and thanks to 168* from Jonathan Trott, went on to accumulate 513 and set up a fourth-day win in front of just 18,899 fans (84,345 watched day one).
Since England’s 2010 victory, Australia have won 10 of 14 matches at the MCG, all of which have been Boxing Day Test matches (D2 L2). Their only two defeats in that time have come against India (2020, 2018).
Third Test Recap
Once again, England had their chances in the third Test but could never create those match-winning moments.
A resilient second innings chase left them still 82 runs shy of an unlikely victory, with shot selection being one of the main talking points of their downfall. However, across this series it is actually Australia who have seen a marginally higher ratio (59%) of their dismissals come from attacking shots (England 58%). So maybe England aren’t being any more aggressive than the hosts?
Both sides have had a lame duck at the top of the order for this series. Jake Weatherald has just 131 runs from six knocks, while Ben Duckett is yet to reach triple figures cumulatively (97). Jofra Archer (102), Will Jacks (113), Ollie Pope (125), Jamie Smith (134), Ben Stokes (165), Harry Brook (173), Zak Crawley (214) and Joe Root (219) all have more runs than the much maligned Duckett.
Archer has been probably England’s most reliable player of the series, a five-fer in the third Test to go with a first Test half-century capped off a fine match. England will need more from the batting department however, and better support for Archer with the ball if they are to challenge for a win in Melbourne.
Player Form
Scott Boland has taken 123 first-class wickets at the MCG since making his debut in November 2011, at least 49 more than any other player at the venue in that time. In fact, since the beginning of 2021, he has taken 46 wickets at an average of 16.8 at the venue, including match figures of 6/96 against India in his last match there, and the aforementioned 6/7 versus England.
Joe Root has scored four Test centuries in 2025, the second-most of any batter behind only India’s Shubman Gill (5), but is yet to reach triple figures in a Test innings in Melbourne (five innings); only at the Adelaide Oval (eight innings) and Rose Bowl in Hampshire (six innings) has he batted more times and never logged a century.
With Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon set to miss this Test, Boland will be critical in supporting the indefatigable Mitchell Starc as the hosts look to torment England’s batters once more. Root is England’s talisman, more often than not when he plays to his best, England rise and are more likely to win.
Player of the series considerations are probably already surfacing and two names jump out so far, Travis Head and Starc. Both will want to press their claims for that accolade as the final two matches come around.
Ashes 2025: Fourth Test Prediction
England can only really get better from here, but that still seems fanciful. Australia are on cloud nine, even their most ardent fans probably wouldn’t have expected such a comfortable series to date. As mentioned, Cummins and Lyon look set to miss the fourth Test, offering a little hope for England, but Starc and Head could possibly beat England on their own at the moment the way they are playing.
We predict that the Aussie juggernaut will roll on through the Christmas hangover and tick the scoreboard over to 4-0. Steve Smith was ill for the third Test but looks set to return for the fourth. We expect him to want in on some of the glory, and with an average of 78 at the MCG, we predict that he’ll be top run scorer.
Australia vs England Squads
Australia: Pat Cummins (captain), Steve Smith, Sean Abbott, Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Brendan Doggett, Cameron Green, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Mitchell Starc, Michael Neser, Jake Weatherald, Beau Webster.
England: Ben Stokes (captain), Harry Brook (vice-captain), Jofra Archer, Gus Atkinson, Shoaib Bashir, Jacob Bethell, Brydon Carse, Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Will Jacks, Ollie Pope, Matthew Potts, Joe Root, Jamie Smith, Josh Tongue, Matthew Fisher.
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Ashes Fourth Test Preview: Series Is Already Lost, but Can England Salvage Anything in Melbourne? Opta Analyst.
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