The College Football Playoff is finally upon us. Here are the key matchups that will decide which teams move on to the second round.
Welcome to the second year of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Your first-round games include two that should be very close, one in which a Group of Five team has a low but real shot at an upset and one in which a G5 team will most likely get launched into outer space.
Below, I’ve written up the matchups that I find most compelling in every game with some help from Opta data.
We’ll start with a rematch of a game that was played just over a month ago.
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1 day ago Zach CrizerNo. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma
The game-defining matchup: Alabama’s offensive line against Oklahoma’s defensive line.
Can the Crimson Tide run the ball? They’ve barely been able to do it all year and had their ugliest rushing performance yet (minus-3 yards, thanks to sacks) in the SEC Championship against Georgia.
The Tide will get top runner Jam Miller back from injury, it seems, but Miller will only take them so far if the Bama line is overwhelmed at the point of attack.
Oklahoma allowed an FBS-best 23.4% rushing success rate, in line with its SEC-leading 27.6% overall success rate allowed.
OU tackles David Stone and Gracen Halton had a combined 38 run stuffs from the middle of the line. The Sooners are also getting back their best player, edge rusher R Mason Thomas, who missed three games with a quad injury.
Wild card to keep an eye on: Oklahoma’s special-teams advantage.
In the last meeting, Oklahoma flipped the whole game via the third phase.
Isaiah Sategna returned a punt 42 yards to set up an early Sooner field goal. Oklahoma’s Lou Groza Award-winning kicker, Tate Sandell, nailed a 52-yard field goal. OU’s Taylor Wein blocked a 36-yard field goal heading into halftime. And Bama’s Ryan Williams fumbled on a punt return, setting up the Sooners at the Tide’s 30-yard line.
All of that in a 23-21 game in which Alabama had the better of the play from down to down. In what should be another close game, with Oklahoma favored by a point, could special teams tip it again?
Opta supercomputer’s win probability: Oklahoma 55.3%
No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M
The game-defining matchup: Texas A&M’s offense vs. passing downs.
The Aggies scored a lot of points this year but got into trouble on passing downs.
On third-and-five or longer, the Aggies converted 21.3% of the time, the 122nd-best mark in FBS. Aggie quarterbacks (mostly Marcel Reed) took sacks on 9.5% of their drop backs on those downs. Every offense wants to avoid long third downs, but A&M is really lousy on them. In fact, no other playoff team was worse than 73rd in the country (Georgia) in conversion rate on third-and-5 or longer. Indiana led the nation at 47.4%.
This is an especially big problem for A&M because Miami’s two starting edge defenders, Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor, are freaks. They combined for 96 pressures and Mesidor’s 22.3% pressure rate was even higher than the 19.2% notched by potential No. 1 NFL pick Bain. A&M cannot afford to be behind the sticks.
Wild card to keep an eye on: Miami’s ability to generate explosive plays
One of A&M’s biggest problems has been explosive plays allowed by the defense, especially on the ground. The Aggies surrendered an 8.2% explosive run rate, second-worst in the SEC ahead of only the miserable Arkansas defense.
But Miami doesn’t specialize in the home-run carry, with a 4.7% explosive run rate on offense that ranked just outside the bottom 10 in the Power Four. Something’s gotta give, right? Does Mark Fletcher have a big one or two in him?
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Miami 69.0%
No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
The game-defining matchup: Ole Miss vs. distractions.
The Rebels should win this game comfortably, if not by the 45-10 score they won by when Tulane visited Oxford in September. But these are strange times.
Both of these teams’ head coaches are moving on to other jobs, but only one of those coaches has already left. Jon Sumrall will be on the sidelines for Tulane while Lane Kiffin watches from Baton Rouge and hopes his former players deliver him some contractual bonuses in absentia. I don’t think this will flip a game that Ole Miss should win, but it’s such an unusual situation that I’m giving it my attention.
Wild card to keep an eye on: Jake Retzlaff’s progression with Tulane.
Retzlaff was in over his head when the Green Wave last played Ole Miss. He completed five of 17 passes for 56 yards and didn’t play in the fourth quarter as the Rebels rolled. It was ugly.
It was also Retzlaff’s fourth game with the Green Wave after he transferred from BYU in late July. He’d been on the roster for about two months. Retzlaff has been much better as the year has progressed, averaging 4.9 yards per throw in August, 7.1 in September, 8.6 in October and 9.4 in November. I wouldn’t bank on Ole Miss getting the same overmatched quarterback this weekend that it saw back in September.
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Ole Miss 81.7%
No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
The game-defining matchup: Oregon’s size against JMU’s lack of it.
It’s a crude measurement, but I think the stat that will define this game is on the roster sheets.
Oregon has seven defensive players on its roster listed at 300 pounds or more. James Madison has two. The Ducks are just so much bigger and so much faster than the Dukes that I cannot talk myself into JMU even putting a scare into Oregon.
In JMU’s lone Power Four game to date, QB Alonza Barnett III took a sack on 17% of his drop backs. That was against Louisville, which lost four games and was one of the season’s more disappointing teams. For the Dukes to have even the smallest chance, their linemen all need to play the game of their lives.
Wild card to keep an eye on: People on the internet who use JMU’s impending slaughter to argue against Group of Five access to the playoff.
It’s your job to ignore these people or treat them with ridicule and scorn.
Do not blame the Dukes or the Sun Belt for capitalizing on the ACC having a five-loss conference champ and opening the door for a second G5 team to take an automatic bid. If anything, we should want more non-power teams to have playoff access, because that access means more people caring about their seasons for a longer period of time. The Sun Belt didn’t decide that all of college football should revolve around a playoff system.
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Oregon 96.0%
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CFP Predictions: The Four Matchups That Will Define the College Football Playoff’s First Round Opta Analyst.
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