Who are the best FPL Challenge GW17 picks? In a week where players score double if they play at home, we use Opta data to find the top players to target this week in the Premier League.
We appear to have officially entered football’s holiday season, with FPL laying on a four-gameweek event centred on the festive fixtures.
The theme of the week for GW17 is Home for the Holidays, the central conceit of which is the rewarding of double points for players whose teams play at their home stadium in the upcoming round.
Taking a look at this week’s fixtures, the theme feels perfectly timed to cause maximum carnage, with the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United and Crystal Palace all playing away from home.
You are, of course, more than welcome to choose players who are on the road this week, but where’s the fun in that? FPL Challenge is all about chasing the biggest possible upside.
Goalkeeper
Bart Verbruggen: Brighton vs Sunderland (H)
You may be surprised to learn that, when only including games played at home, the highest-scoring goalkeeper in FPL this season is Everton’s Jordan Pickford, with 41 points.
Naturally, you may have used this information to place Pickford directly into your side before moving on to the next position – only to realise that Everton play host to the best team in the league this season, Arsenal.
So how about the goalkeeper who earns FPL points at the best rate in home matches? That would be Aston Villa’s Emiliano Martínez, with 14.6 minutes per point at Villa Park.
Once again, you may have then gone to place the Argentinian in your side before realising Aston Villa host the team with the second-most xG in the Premier League this season, Manchester United (30.77 to Manchester City’s 30.88).
Man City host West Ham this week, while Bournemouth host Burnley, and though they probably offer the greatest chance of a clean sheet, we prefer to attack the multifaceted scoring potential presented by their offensive options.
Considering all of the above, the wisest option for the goalkeeper spot feels like Bart Verbruggen, whose Brighton & Hove Albion side face Sunderland at the Amex Stadium on Saturday.
Sunderland have scored only four goals away from home in the Premier League this season, the second-fewest of any side, after Wolves.
That statistic alone is more than enough to suggest that Verbruggen is the smart choice.
Defender
Joachim Andersen: Fulham vs Nottingham Forest (H)
Again, while Manchester City and Bournemouth feel like tempting options given their opponents, we can only pick one player from each team in this format, and it’s best to use their attackers instead.
With Brighton players now off the board, the next best team to target for clean sheet potential is Fulham, who face Nottingham Forest at Craven Cottage.
Fulham are far from a trustworthy defensive side, but they have earned clean sheets at home to Leeds, Wolves and Sunderland this season, and they are capable of frustrating teams around their level.
Forest are much-improved under Sean Dyche, but they have nonetheless failed to score in three of his six away matches in all competitions, losing 3-0 in their last away game in the league against Everton.
The best choice from Fulham’s defence is Joachim Andersen, who ranks sixth among all defenders in FPL this season for defensive contributions, with 162.
Midfielders
Antoine Semenyo: Bournemouth vs Burnley (H)
The selection of Antoine Semenyo is as obvious as they come.
Bournemouth, and Semenyo himself, may have dropped in form recently, but their 4-4 draw with Man Utd at Old Trafford suggests they are ready to click into gear once more – in an attacking sense at least – and there are few friendlier fixtures than Burnley at home in which to test that theory.
Semenyo is the second-highest scoring midfielder in FPL this season when filtering for home matches, with three goals and three assists in seven appearances.
Burnley, meanwhile, have conceded the joint-most goals of any team in away games (23), along with Bournemouth, coincidentally.
Bruno Guimarães: Newcastle vs Chelsea (H)
In case you were wondering who the highest-scoring midfielder is in FPL this season for home matches, it’s our next pick, Bruno Guimarães.
In fact, the only player of any position with more points in home games is Erling Haaland (65), and Bruno Guimarães is only four points behind the Man City man.
The Brazilian has an astounding five goals and three assists (including fantasy assists) in eight league games at St. James’ Park this season.
Chelsea may not be a straightforward opponent, but he has already returned against the likes of Liverpool, Tottenham and Man City this season, and St. James’ Park will no doubt be bouncing for GW17’s early kick-off.
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Erling Haaland: Manchester City vs West Ham (H)
The variation in themes proposed by FPL Challenge’s format sometimes (very occasionally) allows us an opportunity to leave Erling Haaland on the sideline – this is not one of those weeks.
It’s not unusual for Haaland’s points to be doubled, given that a majority of users captain him most weeks anyway, but if you give him the armband this week, you will be quadrupling his points output. It’s quite the prospect.
Haaland would be in the side regardless of his opponent, but it doesn’t hurt that he’s facing a West Ham team who have not kept a clean sheet since the end of August against Nottingham Forest.
West Ham manager Nuno Espirito Santo was not even in charge of the club for that match – in fact, he was on the touchline for Forest.
Haaland has scored nine goals in eight home league games this season. Captain him.
Ollie Watkins: Aston Villa vs Manchester United (H)
It’s always fun to have one borderline rogue shout, and this week that pick goes to Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins.
Watkins is partway through arguably the poorest goalscoring season of his career so far, but he has far too much quality for this downturn to last forever.
Two goals away to Brighton in GW14 hinted that he may spark to life once more, but after being unlucky not to score against Arsenal in the following match, he was poor against West Ham this past weekend.
Villa have won each of their last nine games in all competitions, and they welcome to Villa Park on Sunday a Man Utd team who have the fourth-worst xG conceded in away games this season.
This will be the only game played in the Premier League on Sunday, and that means there’s a strong chance that England manager Thomas Tuchel will be in attendance.
Watkins is at risk of losing his spot in England’s squad for the upcoming World Cup. Now would be a great time to remind Tuchel of his quality.
GW17 Honourable Mentions
Phil Foden is the highest-scoring player in FPL across the last six gameweeks, with 60 points. With a maximum of one player available to be selected for each, picking him would mean going against Haaland.
Harry Wilson is the third highest-scoring player in FPL across the last four gameweeks (42), behind Foden (55) and Bruno Fernandes (46). He has a strong fixture against Nottingham Forest.
Morgan Rogers may be a more sensible pick than Watkins if targeting Aston Villa attackers against Man Utd, but it is worth noting that all five of his goals this season have been scored in away matches.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored in each of his last four Premier League matches, but Leeds host a Crystal Palace side with the best away record in the division this season, and that is enough to suggest that Calvert-Lewin will do well to continue his scoring run.
Opta Analyst’s Team Reveal: Gameweek 17 FPL Challenge Picks
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FPL Challenge GW17 Tips: Double Points for Home Players Opta Analyst.
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