Outside of a stray Zac Gallen report that initially inadvertently reported a signing, I would say the two free agent starting pitchers who’ve been most seriously linked to the Chicago Cubs this offseason are Japanese ace Tatsuya Imai and outgoing Padres righty Michael King. Each offers significant upside, but comes with his own significant risk (for Imai, it’s the transition to MLB; for King, it’s his robust injury history). Each also has a contract projection that is a little tough to peg, again, thanks to the combination of front-of-the-rotation upside stacked against the very real risks of little-to-no impact contribution if things go very wrong.
When I put it that way, I suppose I’m jarred for a moment, as the Cubs don’t typically go after free agents with that kind of boom-or-bust potential, since they – sigh – aren’t an organization that is ready to paper over any financial mistakes.
Consider the Shota Imanaga signing, for example. The Cubs were in all the way, but it was only once it became clear that he wasn’t going to get a monster deal that the risk-reward calculus probably started to make more sense, and, even then, his deal was uniquely structured to protect the Cubs (and, to a lesser extent, Imanaga) if things went very badly.
That isn’t to say the Cubs don’t take risks in free agency. Every signing is, by some calculable or incalculable measure, a risk. It’s just that the Cubs have generally tended toward signings where there is a reasonable floor built in, or some other protection against a total whiff.
If the Cubs of recent vintage are going to approach or exceed nine figures on a contract – an extreme rarity for them, like it or lump it – you often can see the floor without digging too deeply (Jon Lester was established, consistent, and always healthy; Dansby Swanson was an elite defender; Jason Heyward was super young and also an elite defender; Yu Darvish might’ve been the closest to a big risk, but he was two years removed from Tommy John and clearly re-established himself as good to go).
I suppose that’s all a way of me saying that, while I believe the reports and rumors that have the Cubs tied to Tatsuya Imai and Michael King, I do wonder whether the Cubs are ready to be aggressive, or if they’re simply hanging around to see if an Imanaga-like deal materializes. We can speculate from the outside about how compelling each guy is (they’ve been my two preferred free agent possibilities for the Cubs since the start of the offseason, so I’m not a tough sell), but the Cubs will have their own internal calculations about how much upside there is, how likely the upside is to hit, what the downside risks are, how likely the downsides are to hit, and so on and so forth.
As for the latest on each guy, which is the reason this topic came to mind today in the first place, there are a couple new reports out with Cubs mentions. This is not atypical for this offseason, as the Cubs have been connected to these two pitchers several times by several sources. But I generally think it’s worth sharing when it comes up, especially since so little of the top of the free agent starting pitching market has yet moved.
First, on Michael King, this is from Mark Feinsand:
“Michael King appears to be the most likely to sign next, with suitors including the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Cubs and Mets. The belief is that King will sign a deal for four years, while the other top starters – namely Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai and Ranger Suárez – are looking for at least five years.”
That’s a pretty soft mention, and obviously there were reports this weekend that had King more closely attached to the four teams up there that aren’t the Cubs.
As for Tatsuya Imai, whose posting expires January 2, the mention comes from Jared Diamond at the Wall Street Journal:
“Naturally, he has plenty of suitors lining up to pay him somewhere between $150 million and $200 million, a group that includes the deep-pocketed New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies. He is expected to begin meeting with potential employers in America as soon as this week and has until Jan. 2 to pick a team.”
I think it’s important to point out that the article is more of a profile about Imai and his comments about wanting to beat the Dodgers, so I’m undecided on just how far to take that specific mention of the Cubs. Is that something that has been related to Diamond by Imai’s camp, or is that just reading the tea leaves about some of the larger-market clubs that could/should/do have interest?
I also think it’s important to say that, if Imai’s ultimate price tag lands between $150 million and $200 million, you also have to throw the posting fee on top of that, and it’s instantly going to be the largest commitment in Cubs franchise history. Is that really something they’re going to do for a pitcher coming over from Japan? That isn’t a rhetorical question, mind you, because Imai is a 27-year-old stud who has the POTENTIAL to be front-two option in the States. If he translates well, hey, you’d be thrilled to have spent $200 million for six+ years of his service.
Again, though, I go back to the risk calculus, and what we’ve seen from the Cubs. It makes it a little harder for me to square the idea that they would commit that much to a relative unknown. Even vis a vis King, who might cost $80 million guarantee (and the draft pick compensation cost), the risk on Imai might simply be too great.
Obviously these are not the only two starting pitcher options out there in free agency, and free agency isn’t even the only route. But these are the two guys who come up most often, and they’re the guys who got fresh mentions today. So I talked.
When will this all stop just being talk? That probable depends on who blinks first among the free agent starters, the teams pursuing them, and the possible trade partners. That could cause a ripple that leads to multiple moves within a short window. But the more time that goes by, the more you get a natural deadline in the form of the posting expiration for Tatsuya Imai on January 2. I wouldn’t be surprised if we learn that some teams (that aren’t in on Imai)/agents (for other starters) will start pushing soon to complete deals before Imai happens, fearing that there could be a cascade after the fact that leaves the team without a signing at all and/or leaves the player without as strong an offer as they have available right now.
If that were going to happen, by the way, I’d tentatively expect it this week, rather than Christmas week.
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