How Ukrainian undersea drones blew up a Russian submarine – and why it matters ...Middle East

Ukraine has said it destroyed a Russian submarine with an undersea drone, in what appears to be a historic first that leaves Moscow’s already exposed Black Sea Fleet largely combat ineffective for the foreseeable future.

If confirmed, the hit would mark the first successful use of an uncrewed underwater vehicle (UUV), or subsea drone, as an anti-ship weapon, and would be “a significant outcome” both militarily and politically at a crucial moment in peace talks.

Kviv reported the attack on Monday, with Ukraine’s security service (SBU) posting a video showing a huge underwater explosion next to a submarine moored at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, in Krasnodar region, southern Russia.

Kyiv said underwater drones had targeted a Project 636 Varshavyanka-class diesel-electric attack submarine — an advanced subset of the Kilo class, also known by Nato as Improved Kilo class.

A Kilo-class submarine was the subject of a three-day operation carried out by Britain and Nato allies, reported last week. The Royal Navy said it had tracked Russian submarine Krasnodar through the English Channel.

Kilo-class submarines earned the nickname “black hole” during the Cold War thanks to their advanced stealth technology, including their hull’s ability to absorb sound.

Ukraine said the submarine at Novorossiysk was armed with long-range Kalibr cruise missile launchers, which Russia has used to strike Ukrainian cities and infrastructure such as ports and power grids since the start of its full-scale war in 2022.

Kyiv said its operation had been carried out by a unit of the SBU (Ukraine’s security service) and the Naval Forces of Ukraine.

Ukraine puts sub out of action – perhaps for good

“For the first time in history, ‘Sub Sea Baby’ underwater drones blew up a Russian submarine of the class 636.3 Varshavyanka … the submarine suffered critical damage and was, in fact, put out of action,” the SBU announced on Telegram.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that shrapnel from the explosion also damaged another submarine nearby.

“If the Ukrainians have indeed damaged a Kilo-class submarine, this would represent a significant outcome in both military terms and in terms of political optics,” said Dr Sidharth Kaushal, senior research fellow in Sea Power at the Royal United Services Institute. “Unlike surface ships, they cannot easily be tracked and attacked when they are patrolling.”

He added that the “notable” loss worked as “useful optics in a context where Ukraine wishes to dispel the idea that it is on an irreversible trajectory towards defeat.”

Russia has denied Ukraine’s claim. Alexei Rulev, head of the Black Sea Fleet press service, said: “The enemy’s attempt to carry out sabotage using an unmanned underwater vehicle failed to achieve its goals.”

However, the submarine has been significantly damaged, according to an assessment by the defence intelligence company Janes.

“The submarine will be out of service for a long time, if not permanently,” Janes told The i Paper. “The location of the explosion at the rear of the boat will have destroyed the propeller, hydroplanes and rudder, and there is at least some flooding, with the boat sitting heavily at the stern after the event.

“It is unclear how well the diesel engines in the fourth compartment survived the blast, but the main motor in the fifth compartment and the auxiliary thruster and shaft in the sixth are expected to be heavily damaged.

“Additionally, stiffening structures in the submarine’s inner hull are also expected to have been buckled by proximity to the blast, which was off the centre line, severely compromising the integrity of the hull and complicating repair of the vessel.”

Why Russia should be concerned

The weapon responsible for the damage, Ukraine’s Sub Sea Baby, appears to function like an autonomous torpedo, steering itself through the submarine pen at the Novorossiysk base to its target. It may, however, still rely on external guidance from an operator.

The UUV looks to be a development of the Sea Baby Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USV) that Ukraine has used to great effect alongside missiles to attack Russian vessels throughout the war.

Soon after Moscow’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine sank the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship Moskva with Neptune anti-ship missiles, and it has since targeted vessels and helicopters with drones and missiles. In 2024, Magura V5 drones packed with explosives sunk the Cesar Kunikov landing ship.

Now underwater drones are expanding that threat beneath the surface, challenging Russia’s port defences, which protect against divers and surface attacks.

The use of the UUV is “noteworthy and a first in this conflict”, said Kaushal. An armed UUV, while not that different from a torpedo, “represents a difficult capability to control and communicate with over long distances and the means used to achieve this are of note”.

He added that UUVs were trickier to control than USVs because of difficulties communicating with them in transit. “They compensate for this, however, with reduced vulnerability to airborne systems like helicopters,” he said.

“Militarily, the most interesting questions would be whether the UUV made the entire journey submerged or only the final approach (since the former would imply considerable reliance on autonomous navigation) and how the UUV was programmed to make its final approach and identify its target.”

Ukraine’s ability to bypass Russia’s protection systems at Novorossiysk – including pontoons designed to keep out USVs – means the naval base remains vulnerable to follow-up strikes with UUVs, Frederik Van Lokeren, a former lieutenant in the Belgian navy, wrote in Naval News.

Much of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been forced away from Sevastopol and other ports in occupied Crimea over the war due to the risk of Ukrainian naval drone and missile strikes. Novorossiysk is farther west on the Russian mainland.

The vulnerability of Novorossiysk and Crimean ports will prevent the submarine from being repaired for some time. “The boat will need to be lifted out of the water to attempt repairs, and Russian options to repair the vessel are limited in the Black Sea,” Janes told The i Paper.

“Russia has floating dry docks in Novorossiysk and – even closer to Ukraine’s coast – in occupied Sevastopol, but they are large targets and Ukraine has previously successfully attacked and sunk docks, including one containing another Kilo-class submarine, Rostov-on-Don.”

Ukraine said in September 2023 that it had destroyed the Rostov-on-Don in a combined missile and uncrewed surface vessel attack on Sevastopol. Photos at the time showed extensive damage to the submarine.

“There are options to move the warships even further away from Ukraine by basing ships in Sochi and Poti in Abkhazia [in Georgia],” said Van Lokeren. “None of these harbours, however, have the necessary infrastructure to sustain the warships in their operations, thus rendering the Black Sea Fleet largely combat-ineffective.”

Ukraine estimates the cost of the submarine at about $400m (£298m), rising to $500m (£372m) for a replacement, given international sanctions and gaps and delays in the supply chain.

The strike on Novorossiysk comes amid an escalation in Ukrainian maritime operations, including use of Sea Baby drones, targeting Russia’s shadow fleet in the Black Sea.

Ukraine could next look to target the Kerch Bridge, which Kyiv has previously attacked with underwater explosives in its attempt to cut Crimea off from the mainland, said Van Lokeren.

“Sub Sea Baby drones could, in theory, allow the Ukrainians to bypass the defences put in place to protect the bridge against maritime attacks as these defences are deployed with USV attacks in mind,” he added.

However, he doubted whether the drone would be able to cause enough damage to bring down the whole bridge.

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Western countries are not developing similar capabilities to attack static submarines in port, focusing more on tracking and engaging submarines on the move.

“That said, UUVs will likely have a role in future systems such as Nato’s smart ASW [anti-submarine warfare] barrier and the Royal Navy’s Atlantic Bastion as a means of tracking targets and perhaps engaging them under some circumstances,” said Kaushal.

“They are typically a bit too slow to track a nuclear-powered submarine at sea but could lie in wait as ISR [Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance] assets in known transit areas. Larger XLUUVs could also act as minelayers.”

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