We look ahead to Wednesday’s EFL Cup quarter-final at St. James’ Park with our Newcastle vs Fulham prediction and preview. Can Eddie Howe’s side bounce back from their loss in the Tyne-Wear Derby and keep up their defence of last season’s title?
Newcastle vs Fulham: The Key Stats
Newcastle United defeated Fulham inside 90 minutes across 60.3% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-game simulations of this EFL Cup quarter-final match. Holders Newcastle are looking to reach the semi-finals of the League Cup for the third time in the last four seasons, and for the first time ever in consecutive campaigns. Fulham have been eliminated from five of their six League Cup quarter-final ties, though the exception was a victory on penalties over Everton in their last appearance at this stage (2023-24).The third of four EFL Cup quarter-finals this week pits Newcastle United against Fulham at St. James’ Park, and the current holders have a point to prove as they plot a swift return to Wembley Stadium.
Eddie Howe’s side have been near-faultless in their EFL Cup defence with comfortable victories over both Bradford City and Tottenham Hotspur, but they suffered a huge blow in the league on Sunday.
Newcastle lost 1-0 in their Premier League’s first Tyne-Wear derby against rivals Sunderland since 2015-16 courtesy of a Nick Woltemade own goal early in the second half at the Stadium of Light.
Between them, Sunderland and Newcastle managed the fewest shots (11) and lowest xG total (0.54) of any Premier League match this season. Those 11 shots were the fewest in a single game in the competition since Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace in March 2023.
Newcastle’s opponents in this tie haven’t had such a straightforward path to the EFL Cup quarter-finals, with Fulham beating both Bristol City (2-0) and Cambridge United (1-0) at home, before edging Wycombe Wanderers on penalties after a 1-1 draw in round four.
Fulham have the one-day advantage in terms of rest on Newcastle having also taken on newly-promoted opposition at the weekend, but Marco Silva’s side came away from Turf Moor victorious after a 3-2 win over Burnley on Saturday.
In stark contrast to the mere 0.24 xG that Newcastle managed against Sunderland, Fulham’s 2.23 xG at Turf Moor was their highest in a Premier League match this season.
The Cottagers raced into a ninth-minute lead through Emile Smith Rowe and took a 2-1 advantage into half-time following Calvin Bassey’s header, which came 10 minutes after Lesley Ugochukwu had equalised for Burnley.
Having already set up both Smith Rowe and Bassey’s goals, Harry Wilson continued his purple patch of form by firing home Fulham’s third in the 58th minute, and the visitors were able to see out a 3-2 victory despite Oliver Sonne’s late consolation.
Wilson’s strike was his third in the last four games, and the Welshman has now been involved in eight goals across 17 competitive appearances this season (five goals and three assists), one more than he managed in 27 games last term (seven).
Burnley producing their own season-high xG of 2.46 against Fulham will give Newcastle some confidence, particularly given the Magpies have won their last eight EFL Cup games – their longest winning streak in the competition (since at least 2014-2015).
The start of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations on 21 December will disrupt many a Premier League squad, but Fulham will feel the pinch far more than Newcastle and Marco Silva’s starting options are limited for their trip to the North East.
Yoane Wissa had been expected to join up with DR Congo ahead of the tournament, but the former Brentford striker has instead stayed put at St. James’ Park to work his way back to full fitness following cameo appearances against Burnley and Sunderland. After Woltemade’s misfortune at the weekend, Howe could choose to rest the German and opt to start Wissa in attack instead.
Fabian Schar has contributed to goals in his last three home games in the EFL Cup, with two goals and an assist – including the opener against Tottenham in round four – and he’s likely to start in central defence.
Dan Burn was taken to hospital after being withdrawn in the first half of Sunday’s derby and will miss this game, with Howe predicted to ring the changes after an underwhelming display.
Selection for Nigeria’s AFCON campaign rules Bassey, Alex Iwobi and Samuel Chukwueze out of contention for Fulham. Chukwueze already has four Premier League assists this season – the most of any Fulham player – and youngster Josh King is likely to replace the Milan loanee after scoring Fulham’s equaliser at Wycombe in round four of the EFL Cup.
Kevin could also come into the starting XI for the Cottagers after his own display in their penalty shoot-out victory at Adams Park, with the Brazilian winger firing off seven shots and creating five chances for his teammates in that game.
Newcastle vs Fulham Head-to-Head
Newcastle and Fulham have already faced off in league action this season, with Eddie Howe’s side winning 2-1 thanks to a 90th minute strike from Bruno Guimarães at the climax of an end-to-end encounter at St. James’ Park. Jacob Murphy had put the Magpies 1-0 up within 18 minutes, with Sasa Lukic netting the equaliser for Fulham early in the second half.
The hosts will be keen to make another strong start, particularly given that in the EFL Cup, Newcastle have avoided defeat in their last 17 matches when scoring first, since a 3-2 loss to Nottingham Forest back in August 2017.
Newcastle vs Fulham Prediction
Newcastle haven’t lost a home game in all competitions since Barcelona won 2-1 at St. James’ in their UEFA Champions League opener on 18 September, with Howe’s side winning eight of the nine matches since.
Although Fulham only scored once through King and required seven penalties to beat Wycombe in a shootout, they attempted 21 shots over the course of the fourth-round tie – their most in a single EFL Cup match since the start of last season.
Despite their disappointing derby display at the Stadium of Light, the Opta supercomputer is tipping Newcastle to continue their run of recent good home form with a victory in this EFL Cup quarter-final.
Across its 10,000 pre-match simulations, the Magpies ended on the winning side in 60.3% of them, with Fulham trailing by some distance and given a mere 18.9% win probability rating.
Newcastle vs Fulham Predicted Lineups
Newcastle United: Aaron Ramsdale; Tino Livramento, Fabian Schar, Malick Thiaw, Lewis Hall; Lewis Miley, Bruno Guimaraes, Joe Willock; Jacob Murphy, Yoane Wissa, Harvey Barnes.
Head coach: Eddie Howe
Fulham: Bernd Leno; Kenny Tete, Joachim Andersen, Jorge Cuenca, Timothy Castagne; Sander Berge, Sasa Lukic; Harry Wilson, Josh King, Kevin; Raul Jimenez.
Head coach: Marco Silva
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Newcastle vs Fulham Prediction: Can Magpies Make Amends for Derby Defeat and Continue EFL Cup Defence? Opta Analyst.
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