The Africa Cup of Nations begins this week, with hosts Morocco among the sides looking to dethrone Côte d’Ivoire. We look ahead to the tournament by revealing the Opta supercomputer AFCON 2025 predictions.
While the Premier League trundles on through the festive period, many other leagues – including Ligue 1, La Liga and the Bundesliga – are about to enter winter breaks.
But there will be another carnival of football to keep supporters entertained over the coming weeks, with the CAF Africa Cup of Nations running from 21 December to 18 January.
Côte d’Ivoire are the defending champions, with Sébastien Haller scoring the Elephants’ winner as they overcame Nigeria 2-1 in the 2023 final.
But they will face plenty of competition, not least from hosts Morocco, who appeared in the FIFA World Cup semi-finals in 2022 but have not reached that stage at AFCON since 2004.
His bust-up with Liverpool boss Arne Slot seemingly resolved for now, Mohamed Salah will hope to fire Egypt to a long-awaited eighth title, while Senegal and Nigeria will also expect to be in the mix.
Ahead of the tournament opener between Morocco and Comoros, we can reveal the Opta supercomputer’s 2025 AFCON predictions.
AFCON 2025 Favourites
Morocco – 19.1%
The 2023 tournament in Côte d’Ivoire was the first to be won by the hosts since Egypt triumphed on home soil in 2006.
Morocco are hoping to make the most of home advantage this time around, having only been awarded the tournament after Guinea were stripped of the privilege in 2022.
And Walid Regragui’s Atlas Lions are the supercomputer’s favourites to lift the trophy, doing so in 19.1% of tournament simulations. They reached the final in 29.9%.
It is easy to see why the predictive model fancies their chances. Morocco are on an 18-game winning run, taking the international record that had been held by Spain since 2009 (15). They have scored 50 goals during this streak, only conceding four.
In Paris Saint-Germain’s Achraf Hakimi, they boast the 2025 African Player of the Year, and even though the right-back suffered an ankle sprain during a UEFA Champions League loss to Bayern Munich, he is in Regragui’s squad and there is optimism he could play their opener.
Since the start of 2024-25, no defender from Europe’s top five leagues has more goal contributions than Hakimi (13 goals, 17 assists), while his nine goal involvements in last season’s UEFA Champions League was the joint-most by any defender in a single campaign.
Morocco can also call upon Real Madrid’s Brahim Díaz, striker Youssef En-Nesyri and Al-Hilal goalkeeper Yassine Bounou, who ranked second for saves (25) and fourth for save percentage (80.6%) at the FIFA Club World Cup.
They are assigned a 94.0% chance of escaping Group A, having been drawn alongside Mali, Zambia and Comoros.
Egypt – 12.4%
Egypt’s seven AFCON titles is the most of any nation, but since winning three consecutively from 2006 to 2010, they have gone seven editions without lifting the trophy.
The build-up to their latest tilt has been dominated by speculation about Salah’s future at club level, after the 33-year-old suggested he had been “thrown under the bus” by Liverpool.
But following clear-the-air talks with his coach, Salah returned to Liverpool’s squad and supplied an assist as a substitute against Brighton & Hove Albion on Saturday, claiming the outright record for Premier League goal involvements at a single club, with 277.
This will be Salah’s fifth AFCON, and he has scored seven goals in 19 games at the previous four – he is five away from Hassan El-Shazly’s Egyptian record at the tournament.
Egypt were beaten finalists in 2017 and 2021, with the latter occasion seeing Salah denied the chance to take the Pharaohs’ final penalty in a shootout against Senegal.
They were then dumped out in the last 16 in 2023 as Salah tore his hamstring in their second game, forcing him to watch from the stands as they lost on spot-kicks to DR Congo.
Salah has struggled for much of 2025-26, with his per-90 averages for goals (0.28 to 0.68), xG (0.36 to 0.63) and assists (0.23 to 0.46) all significantly down on his 2024-25 figures, but he scored nine goals as Egypt cruised to top spot in their 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification group.
Omar Marmoush will support Salah, though eight of his last nine Manchester City appearances have been as a substitute, so coach Hossam Hassan will hope the 26-year-old has not lost any of his sharpness.
Egypt are assigned a 12.4% chance of lifting the trophy and a 21.8% probability of making the final – they will be on the opposite side of the draw to Morocco if both teams win their groups.
They open their campaign against Zimbabwe, with South Africa and Angola their other Group B opponents.
Senegal – 12.3%
Senegal finally won AFCON for the first time in 2021, but after a disappointing defence ended in a last-16 exit in 2023, they parted ways with their long-serving boss Aliou Cissé, as Pape Thiaw took the reins.
And Thiaw has overseen some impressive performances, with his Lions of Téranga securing World Cup qualification and catching the eye with a 3-1 friendly win in England.
Senegal were also highly competitive in a 2-0 defeat to Brazil last month, enjoying 53.1% of the possession and almost matching the Seleção‘s shot count (11 to 14).
Few sides at the tournament can boast a frontline as dynamic as Senegal’s, with Ismaïla Sarr and Iliman Ndiaye supporting Sadio Mané. Sarr has provided 28 goal involvements (20 goals, eight assists) for Crystal Palace since the start of 2024-25, and he should play a full role after returning from an ankle ligament injury.
Ndiaye has also impressed for Everton this term, with only seven players bettering his nine carries ending with a chance created in the Premier League.
Senegal are assigned a 12.3% chance of lifting the trophy, while their 95.4% probability of making the last 16 is the highest at the tournament – Botswana, DR Congo and Benin are their Group D opponents.
Algeria – 12.0%
Algeria have frequently underwhelmed at recent editions of AFCON, suffering back-to-back group-stage exits since lifting the trophy in 2019.
In fact, excluding that triumph in Egypt, Algeria have not won an AFCON match since 2015.
Expectations will still be high around Vladimir Petkovic’s team, with this Algeria’s sixth AFCON including Riyad Mahrez in their squad. The former Manchester City man has not provided a single goal involvement at the last two tournaments (in six games) after recording eight in his first three editions (14 matches).
He has scored just one goal in nine Saudi Pro League games for Al-Ahli this season, but his 28 chances created is the second-most in the division.
The 34-year-old has also struck up a strong understanding with Wolfsburg’s Mohamed Amoura, who was the leading African scorer in World Cup qualifying with 10 goals.
Marseille’s Amine Gouiri will miss a second straight AFCON due to injury, but after landing in Group E alongside Burkina Faso, Equatorial Guinea and Sudan, Algeria are assigned a 12.0% chance of lifting the trophy.
They only failed to make the last 16 in 5.4% of simulations, but depending on how the groups shake out, they could meet Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire or Cameroon in the first knockout round.
Nigeria – 7.3%
After the four teams with over a 10% chance of AFCON glory, 2023 runners-up Nigeria are the supercomputer’s next-most fancied team with a 7.6% probability.
But being drawn alongside Tunisia in Group C – which also features Uganda and Tanzania – means there is plenty of jeopardy for the Super Eagles. They are assigned a 42.9% chance of topping their pool, compared to Tunisia’s 40.1%.
Nigeria failed to qualify for the 2012, 2015 and 2017 editions, but they tend to go far when they are involved. In 10 AFCON participations this century, Nigeria have finished third five times, been runners-up twice and lifted the trophy once.
They appointed Éric Chelle as their new coach in January, with both José Peseiro and former Ajax winger Finidi George having resigned from the role since AFCON 2023.
And Chelle has plenty of attacking talent available, headlined by Galatasaray striker Victor Osimhen, whose six Champions League goals this season has only been bettered by Kylian Mbappé (nine).
Ademola Lookman is another big name to watch, though he only has three goals and one assist in 16 outings for Atalanta this term, having seen a potential move to Inter collapse in August.
Lookman netted three times at AFCON 2023, as did centre-back, captain and Player of the Tournament William Troost-Ekong. However, the 32-year-old surprisingly retired from international duty earlier this month, and with Ola Aina and Benjamin Fredrick both injured, Nigeria’s defensive options are severely depleted.
The Other Contenders for AFCON 2025
Since Egypt’s three straight titles, six different nations have lifted the Africa Cup of Nations in seven additions. So, it would be unwise to only focus on the five favourites.
Other than Egypt’s three-peat and a pair of back-to-back triumphs by Cameroon in 2000 and 2002, no team have successfully defended the Africa Cup of Nations since Ghana in 1965.
Côte d’Ivoire will attempt to achieve that feat this year, though they would probably prefer a little less drama than they experienced in 2023.
Two years ago, the Elephants sacked Jean-Louis Gasset after being thumped 4-0 by Equatorial Guinea in their final group game, which left them staring at a humiliating home exit.
They were the first AFCON hosts to lose two group games since they also did so in 1984, but results elsewhere saw them reach the last 16 as the fourth-best third-place finishers, and Gasset’s replacement Emerse Faé led them to the trophy.
The holders are given a 6.7% chance of retaining their title. Topping Group F is not an easy assignment with Cameroon, Gabon and Mozambique also present, and they are assigned a 41.2% probability of doing so.
Mali (6.4%) and Tunisia (6.8%) are also among the top eight favourites in the supercomputer’s projections for victory at AFCON 2025.
Mali have never won AFCON despite qualifying for 14 editions, with a runners-up finish on their 1972 debut still their best performance.
Tunisia – champions in 2004 – have made at least the quarter-finals at four of the last five tournaments.
The only other teams given more than a 2% chance of glory are Cameroon (4.1%), South Africa (2.2%) and DR Congo (2.1%), but the Indomitable Lions’ preparations have not exactly been smooth.
Former striking legend Samuel Eto’o, now president of the Cameroonian Football Federation, caused chaos by announcing the dismissal of coach Marc Brys and the appointment of David Pagou. Brys has argued he cannot be fired by anyone other than the country’s Ministry of Sport, labelled Eto’o “narcissistic” and selected a squad, which is different to the group chosen by Eto’o.
Some have accused Eto’o of attempting to thwart Vincent Aboubakar’s bid to break his all-time Cameroon scoring record by omitting the 33-year-old, who needs 11 goals to tie the former Barcelona man.
Aboubakar is also nine goals adrift of Eto’o’s all-time AFCON mark of 18, with Senegal star Mané level with him. Aboubakar’s nine AFCON goals have come in 16 matches (0.56 per game), whereas Mané’s have come in 22 games (0.41).
Four more teams are given at least a one-in-100 chance of going all the way – Angola (1.3%), Burkina Faso (1.2%), Zambia and Gabon (both 1%).
There are no debutants this time around, with the biggest outsiders being the nine nations with a less than 1% chance of glory: Botswana (0.2%), Zimbabwe (0.2%), Uganda (0.4%), Comoros (0.4%), Benin (0.5%), Tanzania (0.5%), Equatorial Guinea (0.6%), Sudan (0.6%) and Mozambique (0.8%). However, if there is one thing we know for certain about AFCON, it’s that surprises are highly likely.
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