MacKenzie Gore: 2026 ZiPS Projections and Cubs Trade Fit ...Middle East

One way or another, the Chicago Cubs are expected to supplement their rotation this offseason. The question is whether that addition will come via free agency or trade.

Even here in the middle of December, both markets remain ripe with options, and I tend to believe their path could be dictated by what happens elsewhere with free agents like Michael King or Alex Bregman.

In any case, one of the pitchers often connected to the Cubs is Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore. So that’s who we’ll talk about today.

MacKenzie Gore, Cubs Trade Rumors

The Cubs were consistently connected to Gore at the deadline, but ultimately backed down because the Nationals’ ask was said to be absurd (reportedly including Matt Shaw *and* Cade Horton, which … let’s be real, Washington). So why would I think anything has changed?

Well, for one, the Nationals have an entirely new front office now. That, alone, is a pretty gigantic difference maker. A change in the guard means different priorities/preferences in negotiations and targets. That doesn’t necessarily mean anything will be easier (maybe they love Gore even more than the old group), but it would reopen the possibility of a more fruitful conversation, even if nothing else changed.

Of course, a lot has changed since then.

MacKenzie Gore, Edward Cabrera to the Cubs?@SahadevSharma expects Chicago to be involved in trade talks for a starting pitcher. pic.twitter.com/oKsyzMa8tk

Specifically, Gore had a rough finish to the season, with just a 5.40 ERA (4.53 FIP) over his final eight starts after the deadline. He also has a half-year less of control. Plus, in the offseason, asking prices can vary without the pressure of a deadline or teams willing to pay a premium with the playoffs on the horizon.

Normally, you’d point to a wider market in the offseason as a reason for prices to get a little bit higher, but with so many legitimate options available this winter, I don’t think that’s quite the case this time around.

For all of those reasons, I suspect the asking price on MacKenzie Gore should be lower now than it was in July. So, assuming he’s more realistically available, how does he project? Let’s turn to the recently released Nationals ZiPS projections for some help!

MacKenzie Gore Projections

Here’s a general overview of Gore’s projections via ZiPS:

Clearly, ZiPS remains relatively unfazed by Gore’s late-season slump. And frankly, I think I am too.

Gore, 26, is still a very young pitcher (with an elite prospect pedigree), who has only just finished his third full big league season. And in that season, despite a weak final eight games, he increased his strikeout rate to a career-best 27.2%. He was hit harder throughout the year, but he also generated fewer swings on pitches in the zone (and less zone contact overall) than his breakout 2024 season, which makes me think there’s some positive regression coming.

On top of that, Gore improved his swinging-strike rate and posted a career-best in first-pitch strikes and CSW% (called strikes + whiffs %).

On the flip side, MacKenzie Gore is another lefty, which would give the Cubs a whooooole lot of lefty starters in their rotation (Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Justin Steele), but that might be by design. We talk about this a lot, wondering if something about hitting at Wrigley Field is tougher on batters when they face lefties (meaning it would make sense for the front office to target southpaws for their own rotation). It’s just a theory, but the Cubs sure do like to get lefty pitchers. Also, two of those current lefty Cubs starters are going to be free agents at the end of the year, while the third won’t be ready to pitch until midseason. So … how much overlap is there, really?

But let’s say that left-handed preference is untrue and, all things equal, the Cubs would prefer a righty. There are still other characteristics embodied by MacKenzie Gore that make him an attractive, diversified piece of a theoretical Cubs rotation.

Namely, he throws hard (95.3 MPH fastball last season), and he strikes guys out.

MacKenzie Gore's 3Ks in the 5th. pic.twitter.com/GulaiUQAdK

MacKenzie Gore, Filthy 84mph Curveball. ?8th K pic.twitter.com/oLrhVude32

MacKenzie Gore, Dirty 81mph Curveball…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/0yt1MciD0R

Among all pitchers with at least 450 IP from 2023-2025, MacKenzie Gore’s 25.9% strikeout rate ranks 12th in MLB. If the Cubs are looking to add velo and whiffs, Gore can help.

And let’s be honest, he comes with a TON of upside. That’s partly why the Nationals were so reluctant to deal him at the deadline. He hasn’t fully achieved that next level yet, but he’s right on the cusp, flashing it occasionally over the last two years. In fact, he demonstrated his full power when he faced the Cubs this June: 7.0 IP, 2H, 0ER, 1BB, 7K. If you remember that game, you remember that he was NASTY. That’s probably because it was the second-best start of his career by Game Score, but still. That was the peak version of Gore, something everyone knows he has inside of him.

I don’t think MacKenzie Gore, under control for two more seasons*, is my top target for the Cubs in free agency or trade, but he is among the realistically obtainable pitchers with the greatest upside. And it is for that reason (well, and his optimistic ZiPS projections) that I remain open and excited about the possibility of a deal.

*As an aside, there’s a theory out there that any players with two years of control might be a little more available this winter than usual because of the impending lockout in 2027. Put simply, teams cannot count on next offseason (or the 2027 Trade Deadline) as another off-ramp for any trade assets. It’s basically now, this coming deadline, or you keep him.

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