Britain should prepare for the increasing probability that Russia will attack a Nato country in the near future, the head of the UK Armed Forces is to warn.
Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, the Chief of the Defence Staff, will issue a rallying cry to all parts of society to adopt an “all-in” mentality, which will make the UK more resilient to both conventional and grey zone attacks like cyber warfare from Moscow and other hostile states.
He will say “our whole nation” needs to step up to ensure Britain can continue to function in a crisis, adding that the “price of peace is increasing”.
The defence chief will make the warning as an emergency summit takes place in Berlin to try to persuade the Trump administration to offer security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a peace deal with Russia.
Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that a new European and Kyiv-backed version of the US peace plan would include measures to prevent a repeat of Russia’s seizure of Crimea and full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Knighton’s comments, at the annual lecture for the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) on Monday, are the latest from a senior political or military figure to warn of a serious threat from full military conflict with Russia.
Last week Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte said European allies had to “be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured”, while UK Armed Forces minister Al Carns warned that “the shadow of war is knocking on Europe’s door once more”.
Their remarks followed the US downgrading Russia as a national security threat, which sent alarm bells ringing in European capitals.
In his first annual lecture at Rusi, Knighton will say that preparing for war means making the NHS, rail network and other critical infrastructure more resilient to cyber and grey zone attacks as well as boosting defence spending for military hardware and personnel.
He will say there is now an increasing probability that Russia wants to invade a Nato country, including the UK.
Knighton will say: “The war in Ukraine shows Putin’s willingness to target neighbouring states, including their civilian populations, potentially with such novel and destructive weapons, threatens the whole of Nato, including the UK.
“The Russian leadership has made clear that it wishes to challenge, limit, divide and ultimately destroy Nato, in former president [Dmitry] Medvedev’s words, aspiring to ‘the disappearance of Ukraine and the disappearance of Nato – preferably both’.
“We are heading into uncertainty, and that uncertainty is becoming more profound, both as our adversaries become more capable and unpredictable, and as unprecedented technology change manifests itself.”
The Strategic Defence Review, published in June, called for a “whole society mindset” approach to an increasingly unstable world in which the presence of grey zone or hybrid warfare, like cyber attacks and drone swarms, were typical and that the threat of a conventional conflict loomed large.
Knighton will underline this message in his speech by outlining the need for a “whole of society approach” to build “national resilience” in face of growing uncertainty and threats.
“Our Armed Forces always need to be ready to fight and win – that’s why readiness is such a priority,” he will say.
“But deterrence is also about our resilience to these threats, it’s about how we harness all our national power, from universities, to industry, the rail network to the NHS. It’s about our defence and resilience being a higher national priority for all of us. An ‘all-in’ mentality.
“And that will require people who are not soldiers, sailors or aviators to nevertheless invest their skills – and money – in innovation and problem solving on the nation’s behalf.”
The defence chief will also announce £50m for new Defence Technical Excellence Colleges, to help build skills needed to tackle the threat posed by Russia.
Defence and resilience should be part of the national conversation and “a higher national priority for all of us”, Knighton will say.
He will add: “The situation is more dangerous than I have known during my career and the response requires more than simply strengthening our Armed Forces. A new era for defence doesn’t just mean our military and government stepping up – as we are – it means our whole nation stepping up.”
Some former generals and other military experts have called for the Government to go further and faster on defence spending than the 2.5 per cent by 2027 and 3.5 per cent by 2035 pledged by Sir Keir Starmer.
But in his speech, Knighton will avoid any accusations that Britain is not spending enough by saying: “I find myself in a position that none of my predecessors during my career have faced, looking at the prospect of the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the end of the Cold War. And that is because the price of peace is increasing.”
Starmer will arrive in Berlin for the summit on Monday alongside Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff.
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The European allies hope to persuade Witkoff to accept their reworked peace plan for Ukraine, rather than the original document which cedes territory to Moscow.
Zelensky wrote on X on Sunday: “We are preparing for a meeting with the American side. There are many important details, and we are working thoroughly on every point of every draft.
“The key thing is that all the steps we agree on with partners must work in practice to deliver guaranteed security. Only reliable guarantees can deliver peace. We count on our partners to continue working constructively as well.”
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