Survivor 49 has essentially existed in two states of matter. In the first half of the game, tribe dynamics were relatively straightforward, with Tribal Councils full of easy votes that didn't rock the boat. And it's only appropriate that one of the hottest seasons on record began to liquify as it went on. Once the game became individual, we've seen power shifts, revenge-fueled blindsides, and advantage-laden showdowns.Now, only five players are left standing in the hunt for the million-dollar prize: Kristina Mills, Rizo Velovic, Sage Ahrens-Nichols, Savannah Louie, and Sophi Balerdi. Ahead of Survivor 49's three-hour finale and aftershow, airing this Wednesday, Dec. 17, here's how we gauge the chances of each of the remaining contestants to take home the title of Sole Survivor.
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Who will win Survivor 49?
5. Kristina Mills
'Survivor 49' contestant Kristina MillsRobert Voets/CBS
Kristina Mills is officially the last Hina member standing. And that puts her in good standing with the jury, as she probably has at least a few votes locked up in MC Chukwujekwu, Alex Moore, and Steven Ramm (though the latter was certainly not happy about her voting him out in the last episode). However, we got a glimpse into Kristina's "sloppy" gameplay last episode, so her strategy may not measure up to the story she would bring to a Final Tribal Council. Then there's the case of whether she even makes the Final Tribal Council. I imagine the players are spending their time in the final few days counting jury votes like grains of sand on the beach. And if they realize how well Kristina could be in good standing on Day 26, they're going to make sure she gets there, but on the other side.
4. Sophi Balerdi
'Survivor 49' contestant Sophi BalerdiRobert Voets/CBS
It's easy to look at the last episode at first glance and say that Sophi Balerdi missed her shot, perhaps a couple of times. After spending days ruminating on whether she'd turn on Savannah and Rizo, she seemed to have a change of heart at the Sanctuary, even revealing her "Knowledge is Power" advantage to them. She then tried to bring the best-kept secret in the game out in full force at Tribal Council, only to get unlucky when she discovered she had tried to steal the lone advantage that had to be played before they even arrived.Sophi is coming into the finale certainly licking her wounds, but prospects are not completely grim. As much as she fears she'll lose to the other members of "Tres Leches" in the end, she can still make the flip at the Final Five to take out Savannah (assuming she doesn't win immunity), then hope Rizo goes down in flames. And in a Final Three of her, Kristina, and Sage, she stands out for being able to overcome a 7-3 disadvantage after the merge, as well as cannibalizing her own alliance. For someone who's been to nearly every Tribal Council this season, she'd be able to make her final one a night to remember.
Related: Everything to Know About Survivor 49
3. Sage Ahrens-Nichols
'Survivor 49' contestant Sage Ahrens-NicholsRobert Voets/CBS
merge of Survivor 49 has been incredibly fluid. But Sage was able to navigate the rapidly changing waters like an expert surfer. While counted out initially as an outcast of Uli, she took control from the very first vote she cast. And, with one large exception, every episode has had Sage not only knowing where the votes were, but often dictating where they would go. And she did it all by still maintaining her emotional authenticity, collecting blindsides like blackheads in a jar.Sage has relied a lot on her feelings to dictate her gameplay. But her shot at the million dollars is going to come down to how she ultimately made others feel. That is a dicier prospect, as people like Alex, Steven, and Sophie Segreti all left the game feeling betrayed by Sage, who had built a strong strategic and personal relationship, only to suddenly turn on them. Not to mention, if she fails in her ultimate plan to get out Savannah and Rizo before the end, Final Tribal Council will be far from a gas for the fart-lover.
2. Rizo Velovic
'Survivor 49' contestant Rizo VelovicRobert Voets/CBS
It seems like a wild prospect that a 25-year-old who gives himself a persona known as the "RizGod" has been controlling this postmerge. But as Rizo Velovic showcased on the very first day he knows how to work smarter, not harder. We've seen multiple times that the salesman has successfully pitched generously-stretched truths to the competition, turning their targets away from him and his alliance. At least part of that is due to the implicit safety from his incredibly public idol. But he's been able to even weaponize that, playing a fake idol, creating Tribal Council theatrics, and stunningly having the gall to not play it through seven rounds.But perception is reality on Survivor. And while we may marvel at what Rizo has been able to do this season, the jury may not necessarily. We saw a bit of that last episode, as they seemed bewildered by him making a scene with his idol, only to not use it yet again. And Steven told Parade in his exit interview, "I didn't think it was landing with the jury the way that he thought it was. Looking over at their reactions, they were kind of rolling their eyes a little bit." What we see as playfulness and confidence, they might see as Tribal Council tomfoolery and showboating. What's more, Rizo may be seen as a favorite to win by the players left in the game. And, while he can finally use his idol at the Final Five, that leaves him vulnerable for the first time at four. If he's leaving his fate in the hands of either a challenge or a firemaking kit, he might be, as he is wont to say, "Cooked."
1. Savannah Louie
'Survivor 49' contestant Savannah LouieRobert Voets/CBS
As just mentioned, Survivor is, at its core, a social game. And, while the jury's still out on whether or not Savannah Louie is an actual "villain," the jury themselves may see her as one. Her blunt and direct way of getting information out of people may do wonders in the newsroom. But considering the adverse reaction we saw to the tactic from Kristina, it's possible the former reporter may not be able to scoop up enough votes if she gets to the Final Three.That said, it's very possible that perception is being overblown, especially given Savannah's postmerge journey. She has been far and away the most-talked-about target throughout the past six weeks, having received votes at every Tribal Council where she was not immune. But despite her name being on everybody's lips, it always fails to show up on the majority of votes. If Savannah were to make the Final Three, it would be an incredible arc to speak to, escaping a torch snuffing every single round, despite being the consensus threat of the season. In my personal opinion, regardless of the criteria, a jury member votes for who they respect the most, either as a player or a person. And if Savannah got to the end, it's a narrative that, presumably, much of the eliminated castaways would respect, given they all tried their hand at going after her. In short, if she sits in those last three chairs, she has one whopper of a million-dollar headline.
Related: 'Survivor 49's Steven Ramm Talks That Tribal Council Chaos — And Who Hurt Him the Most (Exclusive)
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