ROCHESTER, N.Y. – Western New York has been locked into a prolonged period of very cold weather, and the data seems to confirm this. Over the past two weeks, every single day has come in below average for this point in the season. We have also seen occasional rounds of light snowfall, adding to the wintry feel.
So, what does this pattern tell us about the days ahead? For that, we look to the polar vortex, a term often mentioned but frequently misunderstood.
The polar vortex is not a winter storm. It is a large, stable circulation of very fast-moving winds surrounding extremely cold air high above the poles. It resides in the stratosphere, roughly 10 to 30 miles above Earth’s surface. Think of the vortex as a type of “atmospheric fence”. When it is strong and well-formed, it keeps the coldest air bottled up near the Arctic.
At times, however, this fence can weaken, stretch, or even split apart. When that happens, pockets of Arctic air can spill southward into North America. One common trigger is a sudden stratospheric warming which is a rapid temperature increase in the stratosphere over the course of a few days. These events can disrupt the polar vortex and often signal a heightened chance of bitter cold air arriving about a week or two later. Not every cold outbreak is tied directly to the vortex, but when the vortex is disturbed, the odds of extreme cold begin to rise.
Looking ahead, indications suggest that the polar vortex has recently shifted, opening the door for another push of Arctic air. Western New York may see another significant cold surge later this weekend into early next week. If this pattern holds, it could deliver some of the coldest temperatures we have experienced so far this season.
Stay tuned and be prepared for another round of deep winter chill.
First Alert Weather In-Depth: Stratospheric shift hints at renewed Arctic outbreak WHEC.com.
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