We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at the Stadium of Light with our Sunderland vs Newcastle prediction and preview. Who’ll come out on top on derby day?
Sunderland vs Newcastle: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer is predicting an away win in the Tyne-Wear derby, with Newcastle United given a 49.8% chance of victory over Sunderland. Sunderland are unbeaten in their last nine league games against the Magpies, winning six of them. Anthony Gordon has scored a penalty for Newcastle in each of his last three matches.The Premier League table is poised beautifully ahead of derby day in the north east of England.
Sunderland currently hold the upper hand, but Newcastle will overtake them in the standings if they win this match. There’s more than local bragging rights at stake here.
One issue for the visitors is that there are few tougher challenges than winning at the Stadium of Light. Along with Arsenal, Sunderland are one of two teams still unbeaten at home in the Premier League this season.
Their four wins and three draws mean the Black Cats have more points at the Stadium of Light this term (15) than they managed in the whole of their last top-flight campaign (14 in 2016-17). Sunderland have proven their resilience on their own patch in spades this season.
Bournemouth would’ve thought they were on track for three points when 2-0 up in Sunderland’s last home game, but they eventually lost 3-2. Before that, league leaders Arsenal conceded a late equaliser to leave with only a point.
No side have gained more points from losing positions in the Premier League than Sunderland this season (12), while no side have lost more from winning positions than Newcastle (11). Eddie Howe’s men are also having a terrible campaign away from St. James’ Park.
Granted, they won their last away league game with a 4-1 thumping of Everton, but it ended a run of nine without a win on the road (with four draws and five defeats in that sequence). They were also leading at Bayer Leverkusen in midweek until an 88th minute goal by Alejandro Grimaldo cost them two precious UEFA Champions League points.
A big part of their problem has been an inability to keep clean sheets. Being unable to select the likes of Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier and Sven Botman has clearly not helped, though the latter may return here. Joelinton is also a doubt having been substituted as a precaution on Wednesday.
Their issues at the back have contributed to Newcastle both scoring and conceding in each of their last eight Premier League games; they last had a longer such run in the top-flight between December 1960 and March 1961 (13 games).
If they are to score here, perhaps it will be thanks to Anthony Gordon setting a personal record. After a run of 22 Premier League games without a goal, he scored in both of his last two – he’s never scored in three in a row before.
Newcastle’s cause won’t be aided by Sunderland being close to full strength. Reinildo Mandava will be the main miss in terms of being a fairly regular starter, but the unavailable trio of Aji Alese, Habib Diarra (due to injury) and Luke O’Nien (suspension) have not featured too often this term.
Perhaps the ultimate issue is whether the Magpies can end the home side’s remarkable feats of defying expected goals. Only Burnley (12.3) have a lower xG total than Sunderland (13) in the Premier League this season, with the Black Cats below Wolves in Opta’s expected points table.
But Sunderland fans won’t have cared about that while they have been exceeding expectations this season. They certainly won’t mind if they beat Newcastle without deserving to either.
Sunderland vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Newcastle won the last meeting in the derby, triumphing 3-0 at the Stadium of Light in the third round of the FA Cup last season. However, the recent history between these clubs when both have been in the Premier League strongly favours Sunderland.
They are unbeaten in their last nine league games against Newcastle (winning six), though this will be the first such Tyne-Wear derby since a 1-1 draw at St. James’ Park in March 2016. It means Sunderland are on their longest ever unbeaten league run against their local rivals.
A word of caution, though. Newcastle have lost their last three away league games against Sunderland, more than they had in their previous 21 visits combined. They’ve never lost four in a row at the Mackems before, however.
With their most recent league meeting now almost 10 years ago, it’s time for a new chapter to be written in the head-to-head history between Sunderland and Newcastle.
Sunderland vs Newcastle Prediction
The likeliest single outcome here is that Newcastle win. However, it’s slightly more probable that they don’t.
The Opta supercomputer has run 10,000 simulations of the match and decreed the Magpies to be the victors in 49.8% of them. A Sunderland win was the outcome 26.6% of the time, with the remaining 23.6% of run-throughs ending all-square.
Will Newcastle become the first visiting team to win at the Stadium of Light in 2025-26? The supercomputer might need to flip a coin after these outcomes.
Sunderland vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups
Sunderland: Robin Roefs, Nordi Mukiele, Omar Alderete, Dan Ballard, Trai Hume, Granit Xhaka, Noah Sadiki, Arthur Masuaku, Bertrand Traoré, Enzo Le Fée, Wilson Isidor.
Head coach: Régis Le Bris
Newcastle: Aaron Ramsdale, Tino Livramento, Fabian Schär, Dan Burn, Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimarães, Jacob Ramsey, Anthony Elanga, Nick Woltemade, Anthony Gordon.
Head coach: Eddie Howe
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Sunderland vs Newcastle Prediction: Black Cats’ Unbeaten Home Run on the Line in Tyne-Wear Derby Opta Analyst.
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