Predicting winners in the postseason is a lot like throwing darts blindly across the bar. So much can go wrong.
Outside of the College Football Playoff, the college football bowl season depends only on what you make of it. Some teams will take it seriously. Some won’t. Some players will try to close out their careers with a win. Others will opt out and look ahead to what is next. The rosters could change significantly between when you read the picks below and when the games actually kick off.
Alas, let’s take a couple of shots and see what can actually hit the board. Watch your heads.
College football postseason schedule, odds, picks
With the holidays right around the corner, it’s easy to get thrown out of routine. You wake up one morning at your grandfather’s house, turn on the TV, and realize football is being played before you’ve even had your first cup of coffee. Fortunately, at SDS, we’ve got you covered with live, up-to-date college football odds and kickoff schedules for the postseason. You can find point spreads, game totals, and money line odds for every bowl game below.
LA Bowl: Boise State vs. Washington
Boise State has lost 9 straight games to power teams (Notre Dame included) dating back to the 2019 season.
Winner: Washington
Salute to Veterans Bowl: Troy vs. Jacksonville State
I’m trusting the defense more in this matchup. Troy ranks 38th nationally in allowed success rate, per Game on Paper. Jax State is 109th.
Winner: Troy
Cure Bowl: Old Dominion vs. South Florida
The Bulls will be without a chunk of their offensive staff after Alex Golesh took the Auburn job. On Wednesday, that reality cost them starting quarterback Byrum Brown. A once-promising season ends with a dud.
Winner: Old Dominion
68 Ventures Bowl: Louisiana vs. Delaware
Delaware is the better team, but Louisiana is the hotter team, having won 4 straight to qualify for the postseason. I’ll take the better team after an extended break.
Winner: Delaware
Xbox Bowl: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State
The Bears end their first FBS season in style.
Winner: Missouri State
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan
The Myrtle Beach Bowl gets a pair of conference champs in a CUSA vs. MAC matchup. The Broncos have an outstanding defense, and they’ve won 9 of their last 10 because of it. Make it 10 of 11 to close the year.
Winner: Western Michigan
Gasparilla Bowl: Memphis vs. NC State
Memphis lost 4 of its last 6 games and then lost its coach to Arkansas. NC State won 3 of 4 to get back into the postseason. The Wolfpack haven’t won a bowl game since 2017. That’ll end here. Only a couple of points separate these 2 teams, so motivation becomes a factor worth considering.
Winner: NC State
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Washington State vs. Utah State
For the second offseason in a row, Wazzu has to replace its head coach. The Cougars had several strong showings against good teams this year, but the coaching change opens the door to opt-outs and portal departures.
Winner: Utah State
Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs. Louisville
Toledo is good. The Rockets will keep this close. But I’m still rolling with Louisville.
Winner: Louisville
New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss
Another battle between stability and uncertainty. Southern Miss coach Charles Huff left to take the Memphis job. Give me the Hilltoppers.
Winner: Western Kentucky
Frisco Bowl: UNLV vs. Ohio
The UNLV defense stinks, but I don’t see Ohio slowing the offense down enough in this one.
Winner: UNLV
Hawaii Bowl: Cal vs. Hawaii
A homecoming game for Cal here. Former Hawaii coach Nick Rolovich gets to lead the Bears on an interim basis after Justin Wilcox was let go. And Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele gets to play in front of his family.
Winner: Cal
Sports Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Northwestern
The Wildcats have won 5 straight bowl games dating back to the 2016 season. Make it 6 straight.
Winner: Northwestern
Rate Bowl: New Mexico vs. Minnesota
New Mexico can make life difficult for an already-challenged Minnesota offense. I like the Lobos to deal PJ Fleck his first bowl defeat as the Gopher head coach.
Winner: New Mexico
First Responder Bowl: FIU vs. UTSA
UTSA is better, and it should be able to run on the FIU defense.
Winner: UTSA
Military Bowl: Pitt vs. East Carolina
Is Desmond Reid going to play? Is Mason Heintschel going to recapture his earlier form after several poor performances late in the year? ECU has to replace both coordinators, but the Pirates have the defense to pull off an upset here if Pitt’s run game is shorthanded.
Winner: East Carolina
Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State vs. Clemson
The Disappointment Bowl. If you’d said at the start of the season these 2 would meet in the postseason, most would have assumed it would be deep into the CFP. Instead, they’re on a baseball diamond. I expect Penn State to be hit hard by opt-outs. Dabo Swinney thinks the Tigers won’t be. I’ll take his word for it.
Winner: Clemson
Fenway Bowl: UConn vs. Army
I like the Huskies here. Their ineptitude when it comes to stopping the run is concerning, but their quarterback is excellent and that gives them the edge in what could be a “who has the ball last” kind of game.
Winner: UConn
Pop-Tarts Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. BYU
BYU has advantages all over the field. I don’t trust the Georgia Tech defense to contain LJ Martin.
Winner: BYU
Arizona Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State
Miami’s quarterback situation is a mess, and the RedHawks’ top wide receiver has already made a decision to enter the transfer portal. Too much to be concerned with on the Miami side of things; I’ll roll with the Bulldogs in the Snoop Dogg Bowl.
Winner: Fresno State
New Mexico Bowl: North Texas vs. San Diego State
This one is difficult to project. North Texas will be without its head coach (Eric Morris), who is getting Oklahoma State up and running, and probably hopes his star quarterback will follow. UNT also missed out on a potential CFP spot by losing to Tulane in the AAC title game. San Diego State missed out on the Mountain West title game by dropping its final game to New Mexico, then lost its defensive coordinator to Nebraska (Rob Aurich), who might also pull a couple of star SDSU defenders with him to Lincoln. If Drew Mestemaker plays, UNT wins.
Winner: North Texas
Gator Bowl: Virginia vs. Mizzou
I’m about as big a Virginia skeptic as you’ll find. Mizzou has a ton of notable names who could opt out, but if the Tigers get the bulk of their defense on the field, they’ll control the game.
Winner: Mizzou
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Texas Bowl: LSU vs. Houston
Blake Baker makes a strong first impression on his new head coach, and the Tigers end the year with some momentum to take into 2026.
Winner: LSU
Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State
A postseason rematch between Sun Belt squads. Georgia Southern took the first meeting, 25-23 on the road. The Eagles closed with 3 wins in 4 games to make a bowl. App State lost 5 of its final 6, but said yes to a bowl game anyway to fill a spot. The Mountaineers get the extra practices. The Eagles get the win.
Winner: Georgia Southern
Independence Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech
Neither team will be full-force. Coastal will be without its head coach after firing Tim Beck. Louisiana Tech can run the ball, Coastal can’t stop the run, and Tech will have a crowd edge.
Winner: Louisiana Tech
Music City Bowl: Tennessee vs. Illinois
Illinois hasn’t beaten a good team since September. While Tennessee closed the regular season with a dud, the Illini have been flat-out bad against equal or better competition for most of the season. I like the Vols.
Winner: Tennessee
Alamo Bowl: USC vs. TCU
USC has a bunch of players in the “could opt out” discussion, but I imagine this game will mean something to Lincoln Riley’s team. The Trojans are seeking what would be just their second 10-win season in the last 8 years. After a smashing success on the recruiting trail, a win here would give the Trojans a top-15 finish and some serious juice heading into 2026. That should be enough motivation for enough guys to close out the year with a win.
Winner: USC
ReliaQuest Bowl: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt
After winning 3 consecutive bowl games from 2017-19, Iowa has 1 bowl victory since — a 21-0 flattening of Kentucky in 2022. This Vanderbilt team is much better, and should be motivated to close out the best season in school history. Diego Pavia will want to go out in style.
Winner: Vanderbilt
Sun Bowl: Arizona State vs. Duke
The Blue Devils brought calamity down on the College Football Playoff selection committee by winning their last 3 games and swiping the ACC crown. Now, they get to play an Arizona State team that should be missing its top players. An at-times disappointing season ends strongly for Manny Diaz and Darian Mensah.
Winner: Duke
Citrus Bowl: Michigan vs. Texas
So. Michigan… your guess is as good as mine as to what the Wolverines’ mindset will be against Texas. Texas has transfer portal departures and opt-outs to deal with in the 2-deep, but Michigan could see an upheaval after the Sherrone Moore dismissal. No chance the team will be able to focus on this game.
Winner: Texas
Las Vegas Bowl: Nebraska vs. Utah
Nebraska was already without its top quarterback, and now it’ll be without its top running back for the bowl game. Emmett Johnson is off to the NFL. The Huskers, who have made several staff changes since the end of the regular season, will struggle to keep Utah at bay. I just don’t see a ton of points for Nebraska here. The Utes snap a 5-game bowl losing streak.
Winner: Utah
Armed Forces Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State
Give me the Bobcats by a wide margin. Texas State has a top-10 offense, according to Game on Paper, and Rice has a bottom-20 defense.
Winner: Texas State
Liberty Bowl: Navy vs. Cincinnati
Does Brendan Sorsby play? He responded to that question after the regular season by saying, “We’ll see,” which doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. Cincy closed the season with 4 straight losses, and the offense really struggled to do much of note in any of those games. In a limited-possession ballgame against the Midshipmen, that’s concerning.
Winner: Navy
Holiday Bowl: Arizona vs. SMU
As long as the 2-deeps aren’t ripped up by transfers and opt-outs, this should be one of the better games of the non-CFP postseason. I like Arizona, which closed the year by surging. The Wildcats won 5 straight, including each of the last 2 by at least 24 points.
Winner: Arizona
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State
Bad teams don’t just flip to great overnight. They give a fanbase flashes of what’s to come while tripping and face-planting on the way there. Mississippi State spent most of this season in the middle portion of a program rebuild. I think the Bulldogs are on the right track, as evidenced by uneven but competitive play throughout the year. The defense held it together before falling apart late in the season. The offense should look a little better with Kamario Taylor making another start. The last thing that comes is the week-to-week consistency. I’ll roll with the Bulldogs here in a game that could be a real springboard.
Winner: Mississippi State
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