Our nuclear weapons are no longer enough to keep us safe ...Middle East

Europe must prepare for war with Russia, the head of Nato has said. A conflict “on the scale of war our grandparents and great-grandparents endured” is coming, Mark Rutte warned on Thursday. “We are Russia’s next target, and we are already in harm’s way”.

Yet years of underinvestment, shrinking personnel numbers, and ageing equipment have brought into doubt just how “ready” Britain would be for this war. While the commitment to rebuild industrial capacity and expand the armed forces is significant, it could take years to deliver. But Britain does not have years, if Mark Rutte’s comments are anything to go by.

Former defence minister Tobias Ellwood, former Colonel Tim Collins and British Army Officer Levison Wood all offer their perspectives as part of The i Paper’s new opinion series: Are we ready for war?

• Ray Mears: This is the golden rule of preparing for war• ‘Little green men’ and ghost fleets: How Russia could drag us into war before 2030• Not enough people want to die for Britain – and who can blame them?• I’ve seen the state of our weaponry – helping Ukraine has left us exposed

By any measure, the storm clouds are gathering. We are not yet at war, but we are no longer at peace. For too long, we have assumed that our nuclear deterrent, and the post–Cold War complacency that large-scale conflict was improbable, would keep Britain safe.

The rules of war are being ignored, boundaries tested, and lines crossed. As a new arms race accelerates, we are struggling to keep pace with the changing character of conflict. Our conventional forces, on sea, land and air, urgently need modernisation, while the new domains of cyber and space also demand serious investment.

squareLEVISON WOODAre We Ready For War?

Not enough people want to die for Britain – and who can blame them?

What ultimately kept Britain safe during the Cold War now needs updating. For decades, our nuclear arsenal was treated as the ultimate insurance policy: a guarantee that existential threats would remain distant. At least one nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine has been on patrol at all times since 1969, ready to receive a coded message authorising a strike to pre-set coordinates – the captain left only to pull the trigger.

Yet behind the tradition lies fragility. The four Vanguard-class boats are decades old, stretched beyond their intended life. Their Dreadnought replacements will not enter service until the early 2030s. A single delay could break the chain of deterrence that has never faltered. We’ve finally decided to invest in air-delivered tactical nuclear weapons like the B61 gravity bomb. But again, no delivery until the next decade.

Meanwhile, the global framework that once restrained nuclear powers has collapsed. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty is gone, Russia has suspended the 2011 New START arms reduction treaty, and China was never bound by it. No serious arms-control dialogue remains as the nuclear club grows.

The greater danger today is not global annihilation but the use of low-yield nuclear weapons in a regional war, or by proxy through a non-state actor. Russia openly rehearses such scenarios, believing the West might blink. Once that line is crossed, escalation becomes a test of nerve, not policy.

In my time as a defence minister, we prepared for Armageddon. We are armed with high-yield city-busters, not tools for limited or tactical use – leaving us with almost no options between peace and the end of the world. Yet these limited nuclear scenarios are just what our adversaries are now openly planning for.

We cannot respond proportionately because our preparedness simply isn’t there. Our air and missile defences are thin. Even a limited strike could cause chaos. Civil defence planning has vanished, and the public is unprepared.

squareTIM COLLINSAre We Ready For War?

I've seen the state of our weaponry – helping Ukraine has left us exposed

To restore credibility, Britain must accelerate the Dreadnought programme along with the delivery of its tactical nuclear capability in the next five years. Nuclear doctrine must also be updated so our thresholds for response are clear and unambiguous. Without a spectrum of nuclear choices and clarity of resolve, our deterrence risks becoming a bluff.

This is not scaremongering. It’s reality. The nuclear age never ended; it only went quiet. And now, as the noise returns, Britain must decide whether it still wants to hear the siren first, or the silence after.

Tobias Ellwood served as defence minister between 2017 and 2019

Perspectives

Our nuclear weapons are no longer enough to keep us safe

Not enough people want to die for Britain – and who can blame them?

I’ve seen the state of our weaponry – helping Ukraine has left us exposed

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