The Winter Meetings, broadly speaking, were a bust. The Chicago Cubs were far from the only club that didn’t complete any deals, and even today’s massive Pete Alonso signing by the Orioles wasn’t quite enough to salvage the week. There’s still a whole lot left of this baseball offseason, and it might be a while before it all shakes out for the Cubs and for most other teams.
There was one spicy report that dropped at the end of the day, though, and it was about that Alonso signing.
Jon Heyman says Alonso met with some other clubs before finalizing the deal with the O’s: “The Red Sox and Cubs were the other teams that met with Pete Alonso in Orlando Tuesday night. He was never spotted by media as he went through a side entrance and used a service elevator.”
The Cubs? And Pete Alonso? What?
It’s certainly interesting and useful, but I think it’s probably one of those things that is less sexy – and less telling – than it seems at first glance. Which isn’t to say it’s not interesting, because I have a whole lot of thoughts on the matter.
Let’s start by considering a hypothetical scenario. Call it the most extreme version of “this means something.”
Meeting with Alonso in person at the Winter Meetings, just before he signed with the Orioles, could’ve been the Cubs’ last-ditch attempt to sign a guy they desperately wanted. He ultimately signed a contract that, frankly, seems like it could get really ugly really quickly, so I wouldn’t blame the Cubs for bowing out shy of five years and $155 million.
In that version, we could speculate that the Cubs maybe just particularly loved Pete Alonso, and would’ve made anything work with the roster to fit him in. They could’ve had him work at first base on days Michael Busch was sitting, and otherwise occupy DH while Seiya Suzuki played in right field. At that point, the Cubs either continue to let Moises Ballesteros and Owen Caissie bounce around as bench/Triple-A guys, or could’ve used them in trade.
Maybe that’s all true. I understand if that would’ve been the most exciting version, especially because the implication would be that the Cubs really wanted to try to add a big bat at any spot, and might try again.
Set that hypothetical version of events aside, and consider its polar opposite: the most extreme version of “this means nothing.”
Consider that Alonso made the trip to Orlando the day before he ultimately signed with the Orioles. Who is to say he and Scott Boras weren’t the ones who set up the meeting with the Cubs, and not the other way around? Who is to say the idea wasn’t to have a couple prominent meetings, put on a good show, and get the Orioles to add the extra year or extra million in AAV and just get the deal done?
The Cubs, for their part, might’ve taken the meeting as a courtesy to Alonso and Boras, knowing full well that it just wasn’t a fit. Heck, maybe the Cubs were fine with it because they wanted some other player(s) or team(s) out there to believe they were seriously considering Alonso. Who knows?
In this version of events, the whole thing is kind of a nothingburger as far as implications go. Teams take meetings all the time, and if a guy is right there and wants to talk, sure, why not talk? In this version, the Cubs weren’t specifically looking at Pete Alonso, and they weren’t looking to add a huge, expensive bat at all. It’s just a thing that happened because they were asked.
Now, set that hypothetical version of events aside, and consider a middle road. Something between the two extremes. Which, for the record, is closer to where I think these things usually land.
The Cubs, we believe, have liked Pete Alonso for a while. There has never quite been a perfect time or fit, but, yeah, that’s a big-time power bat that would play well at Wrigley Field. He’s a free agent, and you never know for sure how the rest of your offseason might go, so you stay in touch. Why wouldn’t you? What if a can’t-turn-down trade offer came through that required Ballesteros and Caissie to head out for a starting pitcher? And what if the money on Alonso wound up being surprisingly light, and you decided you could coordinate everything just so?
If Boras and Alonso were getting close on a deal with the Orioles (or anyone else), then it’s possible the Cubs had earlier indicated that they’d love to hear back before any deal gets finalized, just in case they see a crazy opportunity. Obviously, with the deal he ultimately got, that wasn’t going to happen. But all sides checked in, just to be sure.
You have to remember that this Chicago Cubs front office is the ULTIMATE keep-all-options-open, wait-to-the-last-minute, just-in-case group ever. They would’ve known there was almost no chance they were going to sign Pete Alonso. But they would say, “Hey, almost no chance is not the same thing as no chance!”
So, then, my guess is something approximating that middle road played out, and, yes, the Cubs met with Alonso just to see what was what. That doesn’t mean they were ever seriously involved. Using a huge chunk of payroll on Alonso, given the other needs and the reality of the budget, was just never going to make a ton of sense. It’s why we never even talked about Alonso as a possible Cubs target.
As far as going-forward implications here, I personally don’t see many. I understand that some folks will say that this proves the Cubs are willing to spend big money on a bat this offseason, and they might allow themselves to get a little more hopeful on Alex Bregman, for example. If you want to go that way, God bless. But, because I think this was just a situation where a guy was really close to signing and there was either a final leverage-pull on the O’s and/or a final check-in-just-in-case by the Cubs, I don’t see this really saying much of anything about what the Cubs will or won’t do from here.
The Cubs, in other words, didn’t “miss out” on Pete Alonso. They don’t now have to “find someone else” instead of Pete Alonso. Fun as all that might be to ponder, I just don’t see it.
Instead, I see the Cubs’ offseason situation as more or less the same as it was before this report. The Cubs need an impact starting pitcher, and they are heavily involved in the free agent and trade markets there. The Cubs need relievers aplenty, including another late-inning guy. That has to happen.
And then, if it fits with the other moves and the budget, yes, I think it’s possible the Cubs could add a significant free agent bat like Alex Bregman. I think it’s pretty clear the Cubs like him, and have liked him for a while. That doesn’t mean they would ultimately go to the price level necessary to sign him, nor does it mean they would have a problem with Matt Shaw opening the season at third base.
Instead, it is maybe a slightly more hopeful version of the Cubs keeping their options open. Maybe things work out perfectly to add Bregman, and if that is even a possibility, they need to stay in touch. That is true regardless of what happened with Alonso, and it is true regardless of what their preferred paths are on the pitching side. Because the front office is actually right: you don’t know what might happen, so you have to just-in-case this stuff as best you can for as long as you can.
Which brings me back to Jon Heyman’s Pete Alonso report about the Cubs and Red Sox meeting with him Tuesday night.
Let’s consider one final thing: if the Cubs are competing with the Red Sox on Alex Bregman, and if the Cubs knew the Red Sox were also going after Pete Alonso … wouldn’t it behoove the Cubs to meet with Alonso and Boras this week if for no other reason than to try to find out what the Red Sox were doing? How much the Red Sox were willing to spend? What kind of financial and positional implications were there for the Red Sox? I sure as heck know I’d want to try to find out whatever I could!
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