After a perplexing home loss to the Saints in the NFL’s Week 14, the Buccaneers hope to get back on track at home against the scuffling Falcons. We’ve got the keys, player projections and win probability for Thursday Night Football.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers: The Key Stats
The Buccaneers have a 64.3% probability of beating the Falcons, according to the Opta supercomputer. Tampa Bay won 23-20 at Atlanta in Week 1 – the fifth consecutive meeting decided by six points or fewer. This is the NFL’s longest active streak of games decided by six points or less between division opponents, and neither the Buccaneers nor Falcons has had a longer one against a division foe. Bijan Robinson is averaging 7.58 yards on inside zone runs in the last three weeks. It’s the highest average among the 30 running backs with at least 10 such carries.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in the driver’s seat to capture the NFC South title.
That seat, though, isn’t the most comfortable.
Losses in four of their last five games – including an ugly 24-20 home defeat to the then-two-win New Orleans Saints this past Sunday – have tightened things up in the division.
The Buccaneers appear to have a golden opportunity to get back on track and return to their winning ways on Thursday Night Football with a home matchup against the scuffling Atlanta Falcons. But they’re just days removed from experiencing a letdown against a seemingly overmatched opponent at home, so we shall see.
After entering their Week 9 bye at 6-2 with a two-game lead atop the NFC South, the Bucs and Carolina Panthers are now tied for first with identical 7-6 records.
Tampa Bay currently holds the tiebreaker, but that really doesn’t mean much, as the Bucs and Panthers play each other twice over the final three weeks of the season, so those outcomes will have a major role in deciding the division winner.
Despite their struggles, the Opta supercomputer still gives the Buccaneers a slight edge in outlasting the upstart Panthers, calculating their probability of winning the division at 54.4%.
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As bad as things have been going for the Bucs, things could be worse.
They could be in the Falcons’ situation.
While Tampa Bay is trying to lock down a fifth straight division title, Atlanta secured an eighth straight losing season with Sunday’s 37-9 drubbing at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks, dropping its record to 4-9.
The free-falling Falcons have lost seven of eight and veteran Kirk Cousins is finishing out the season at quarterback after Michael Penix Jr. tore his ACL.
Cousins hasn’t inspired much optimism since taking over for Penix, completing 58.0% of his passes while averaging 6.43 yards per attempt for a 74.7 passer rating. He has been far worse when throwing under duress and Tampa Bay is one of the NFL’s best teams at generating pressure.
The Bucs’ pressure rate of 50.6% is tied for sixth in the NFL and since their bye, edge rusher Yaya Diaby and nose tackle Vita Vea have intensified their pass rush.
Heading into the bye, Diaby had a pressure rate of 17.1% – ninth worst among the 43 edge rushers with at least 115 pass rushes. Since Week 10, however, his pressure rate of 27.5% ranks fifth among the 35 pass rushers with at least 70 pass rushes.
(minimum 70 pass rushes)Rotational edge rusher Anthony Nelson isn’t on the field in as many passing situations as Diaby, but he’s been registering a pressure rate of 28.3% in the last five games after being at 15.7 before the bye.
On third downs, Nelson has a pressure rate of 33.3%, while Diaby is at 30.8 – the same as Vea.
Like Diaby and Nelson, Vea also wasn’t getting to the quarterback much early, with a pressure rate of 10.8% through eight games, but has seen that number nearly double in the last five weeks, jumping to 20.4. The NFL average for pressure rate for nose tackles on the season is 14.3%.
Since Penix’s injury in Week 11, Cousins is completing 40.0% of his passes while being pressured, and his intended target is open 56.0% of the time. On the season, the NFL averages are 56.9% and 69.8%, respectively.
Cousins’ Tampa Bay counterpart, Baker Mayfield, also hasn’t done much to impress lately, averaging a paltry 4.64 yards per attempt with three touchdowns, three interceptions and a 62.5 passer rating in the last three games.
Help could be on the way, however, with Mike Evans hoping to play for the first time since breaking his clavicle in a 24-9 loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 7. Evans ranks third in the NFL among WRs with at least 150 snaps with a 95.6 route rating, which measures the ability of a pass catchers to win routes. A rating above 90 puts you in the elite category.
With de facto No. 1 receiver Emeka Egbuka struggling to come up with big plays in recent weeks – he had a potential game-tying touchdown grab go right through his hands late in the fourth quarter against the Saints and has caught just 27 of 68 targets in the last seven games (39.7%) – Mayfield would certainly welcome Evans back to help him break out of his string of subpar showings.
Cousins’ current funk, meanwhile, has been more in line with his expectations, and Tampa Bay can once again make things difficult for him with its pass rush. Of course, Cousins was spectacular in winning both matchups with the Bucs last season, completing 74.7% of his passes for 785 yards with eight touchdowns against just one interception.
Falcons’ Key to Victory vs. Buccaneers
Unless Cousins surprises everyone and somehow duplicates the performances he had against Tampa Bay last season, Atlanta’s best chance to derail the Bucs’ postseason plans falls on its workhorse running back.
Bijan Robinson ranks fourth in the NFL with 1,081 rushing yards and in the last five games, he’s averaging 97.2 rushing yards with 14 carries going for 10 or more yards – third-most in the league since Week 10.
Since Cousins took over the reins at starting QB, Atlanta is suddenly thriving at running inside zone behind Robinson and the offensive line.
Through Week 11, the Falcons’ 44 inside zone runs were the fewest in the NFL, and they averaged just 3.9 yards on those plays. However, since Week 12, they’re averaging a league-leading 6.2 yards per play on their 18 inside zone runs.
Robinson has carried the ball on 12 of those plays, averaging 7.58 yards – the highest average among the 30 running backs with at least 10 carries on inside zone runs since Week 12. This came after he averaged 3.85 yards on 27 carries on inside zone through Week 11.
(minimum 10 carries)Robinson could consider handing out some early Christmas presents to his offensive line to thank them for much of his recent success, as the unit is excelling in blocking inside zone, with Robinson averaging 5.58 yards before contact – best in the NFL since Week 12.
By that same token, however, he could’ve given them coal for his earlier struggles, as his average of 0.78 yards before contact through Week 11 was easily the worst among the 40 running backs with at least 25 carries.
While Tampa Bay has been much better at pressuring opposing quarterbacks in recent weeks, it may have come at the expense of its run defense. Since Week 10, the Bucs are allowing an average of 4.73 yards per rush – nearly a yard more than they were before their bye (3.88).
And against inside zone, they’re allowing an average of 3.4 yards before contact – tied for the third highest in the NFL.
They could have cornerback Jacob Parrish and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. ready to provide support. Winfield is ninth in the league with a 71.9 run defense rating among qualified safeties, while Parrish ranks 11th with a 71.3 rating among CBs.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The Opta supercomputer gives the Buccaneers a 64.3% probability of beating the visiting Falcons on Thursday Night Football.
Tampa Bay won 23-20 at Atlanta in the season opener, going ahead on Mayfield’s 25-yard touchdown pass to Egbuka with 59 seconds remaining. The Bucs, however, have lost the last two meetings in Tampa Bay.
Mayfield has thrown three touchdown passes in each of his last three games against the Falcons, his longest streak against any single opponent in his career.
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Falcons vs. Buccaneers Predictions: Can the NFC South Co-Leaders Avoid Another Upset in Tampa? Opta Analyst.
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