With both teams chasing a spot in the top eight of the UEFA Champions League group stage, we preview Wednesday’s meeting at the BayArena with our Bayer Leverkusen vs Newcastle United prediction and preview.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Newcastle: The Key Stats
There’s not much to split the two teams, with the Opta supercomputer giving Newcastle a 41.2% chance of taking all three points, narrowly ahead of Bayer Leverkusen’s 33.8% win probability. Leverkusen have won their last two Champions League games without conceding. They’ve never previously managed to win and keep a clean sheet in three straight matches in the competition. Harvey Barnes and Anthony Gordon have both scored four times in the Champions League this season, making Newcastle the only team with two players on more than three goals.Bayer Leverkusen will be aiming for a third straight Champions League victory when they host Newcastle United at the BayArena on Wednesday.
After a 7-2 demolition at the hands of reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain on Matchday 3, Leverkusen got themselves back on track with victories over Benfica and Manchester City.
Patrik Schick converted headers in both of those matches and will emulate former towering Czech striker Jan Koller in another way if he finds the back of the net again here. It would make him only the second player from his country to score in three successive Champions League games, which Koller managed (one run of three, one run of four) while playing for Borussia Dortmund in 2002-03.
Still, difficulties in front of goal have been one of Leverkusen’s main weaknesses in the competition this season.
Only Ajax (37), Eintracht Frankfurt (37) and Pafos (43) have taken fewer than their 49 shots. And while they have scored with eight of their 16 shots on target, if Nick Pope starts they will come up against a goalkeeper with one of the best save rates (84%) in the competition – behind only Thibaut Courtois (90.9%) and David Raya (88.9%) – across the opening five matchdays.
Things could be made more difficult for the German side if Newcastle start strongly once again. Eddie Howe’s men have scored three goals in the opening 20 minutes of Champions League games this season, a total that is only surpassed by Bayern Munich (6).
Two of those early goals have come in their past two matches, too. Although they ended up succumbing to a 2-1 loss at Marseille last time out, Barnes put them ahead inside six minutes, while Dan Burn’s curling header in the 11th minute opened the scoring in a 2-0 victory over Athletic Bilbao on MD4.
The defeat at Marseille was the first time Newcastle have lost an away Champions League game in which they led, and they have now won just one of their five matches on the road in the competition since their return in 2023-24.
Only one point separates Newcastle in 11th from Leverkusen in 17th, so this meeting could have a significant impact on their hopes of finishing in the top eight and automatically qualifying for the last 16.
Alex Grimaldo, who scored in the victory over City, will face a fitness test after he sat out the 2-0 Bundesliga loss at strugglers Augsburg on Saturday. He may only be deemed fit enough to return to face Cologne in the league at the weekend.
Kasper Hjulmand could welcome teenage centre-back Axel Tape back into the squad. He has been sidelined with a thigh injury for two months.
Newcastle’s main injury concern is Pope, who has missed their past three games with a groin issue. Howe may therefore opt to keep Aaron Ramsdale in goal for the trip to Leverkusen.
Yoane Wissa made his debut off the bench in Saturday’s 2-1 victory over Burnley in the Premier League. Signed from Brentford for £55 million in the summer, Wissa will be keen to get some more minutes in his legs following his return from a knee injury.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
The teams have only met twice before. Newcastle won both meetings 3-1 in the second group stage of the 2002-03 Champions League, with the most recent match seeing Alan Shearer hit a first-half hat-trick.
However, Newcastle are winless in three European games against German sides, drawing one and losing two. Both of those defeats have come under Howe, as they lost 1-0 at home and 2-0 away against Borussia Dortmund in the 2023-24 edition of the Champions League.
Leverkusen, meanwhile, have won two of their last three Champions League games against English opponents, which is as many as they managed in their first 17 such encounters. The recent victories include a surprise 2-0 success at City on MD5 of this season.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Newcastle Prediction
Newcastle are slight favourites for this match, according to the Opta supercomputer.Howe’s side came out on top in 41.2% of our pre-match simulations, meaning that an away win is the likeliest outcome.
It is only marginal, though. Leverkusen won 33.8% of the projections and 25.0% ended in a draw, so this game is an extremely tough one to call.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups
Bayer Leverkusen: Mark Flekken, Jeanuel Belocian, Loïc Badé, Robert Andrich, Ernest Poku, Aleix García, Ibrahim Maza, Jonas Hofmann, Malik Tillman, Martin Terrier, Patrik Schick
Head Coach: Kasper Hjulmand
Newcastle: Aaron Ramsdale, Tino Livramento, Malick Thiaw, Fabian Schär, Dan Burn, Bruno Guimarães, Joe Willock, Joelinton, Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade, Anthony Elanga.
Head Coach: Eddie Howe
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night in Germany, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Bayer Leverkusen vs Newcastle Prediction: Can Leverkusen Beat Another Premier League Side? Opta Analyst.
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