What the Chicago Bears’ Super Bowl Odds Look Like Entering Packers Week ...Middle East

A Chicago Bears Super Bowl odds post isn’t something I was planning on doing until I cooked up Thursday’s Bullets and learned that a bettor could turn a $50,000 wager into $3.3 million.

NFC North Standings:

1. CHICAGO BEARS: 9-32. Green Bay Packers: 8-3-13. Detroit Lions: 7-54. Minnesota Vikings: 4-8

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The Green Bay Packers beating the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving has set up their Week 14 game against the Chicago Bears to be a heavyweight bout for NFC North supremacy. Meanwhile, the Lions are set to take on a streaking Dallas Cowboys team on Thursday Night Football in a game that both teams are desperate to win. Does that mean that Bears fans will be rooting for a Matt Eberflus-coached team tonight? This feels like one of those “the enemy of the enemy is my friend” kind of moments.

NFL Playoff Picture

This is what the NFL playoff picture looks like after 13 weeks of the 2025 season:

NFL PLAYOFF PICTURE — WEEK 14? #DaBears & Pats are top dogs? The Colts are free fallin'? Chiefs playoff odds are on life supportMORE ➡️ t.co/I0p3zmuXcr pic.twitter.com/NnMv3QPzm4

Even though the Bears have shot up to the No. 1 spot in the NFC standings, the calculations from NFL media give the Green Bay Packers (89%) better odds at making the playoffs than the Bears (75%). And yet, that does not bug me the way it used to because Chicago’s football team controls its own destiny. Also, it is wild to see how much that Thanksgiving loss impacted Detroit’s playoff odds. The Lions went from having a 76 percent chance at making the postseason entering last week’s action to 43 percent as we head into Week 14.

Now, let’s take an updated look at the Chicago Bears Super Bowl odds entering their Week 13 game against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Bears Super Bowl Odds (via ESPN)

Let’s check out the latest Bears Super Bowl odds from ESPN, whose Football Power Index provides updated odds for every team to make the playoffs, win its division, make the Super Bowl and win the whole freakin’ thing.

Chicago Bears Super Bowl Odds (ESPN):

I guess bullying the defending Super Bowl champs in their building on Black Friday was helpful in boosting Chicago’s playoff and Super Bowl chances.

In case you’re curious, ESPN’s FPI has the Los Angeles Rams (13.5%) are the only team whose odds of winning the Super Bowl are north of 10 percent. Unfortunately, the Packers (9.8%) are on the threshold of crossing that 10 percent barrier. As for the Bears Super Bowl odds, they’ve gone from 1.2 percent last week to 2.6 percent this week. And when it comes to making the big game, the Bears are one of 17 teams ESPN’s FPI gives a 5 percent or better chance of reaching the Super Bowl. That speaks volumes about the blob of teams that could feasibly make a title run this year.

More Bears Super Bowl Odds:

Let the record show that ESPN isn’t the only show in town. Other sites have looks at the Bears’ Super Bowl odds. Let’s take a look at some of them.

For instance, FTN — which uses DVOA ratings to help cook up its postseason percentages — has the Bears Super Bowl odds at 1.1 percent. Hey, it’s not zero!

Here is a fun look at some Bears Super Bowl odds for particular matchups:

As for the Bears’ playoff odds, they currently sit at 69.7 percent. By FTN’s numbers, Chicago also has a 30.7 percent chance of winning the division. The Bears’ most likely entry into the postseason might be via the wild card, where FTN gives the team a 39.0 percent chance of making the postseason through that path. However, let’s not rule out the odds of keeping that No. 1 seed, which are at 8.1 percent.

Chicago Bears Playoff Odds (The Athletic):

The Athletic has also a playoff simulator that shows the Bears with a 77 percent chance to make the playoffs. Here is the breakdown:

How important is Sunday’s game against the Green Bay Packers to the Bears playoff odds?

It would be tremendously disappointing to miss the playoffs after starting December as the No. 1 seed. However, the probabilities presented by ESPN, FTN, NFL’s Next Gen Stats, and The Athletic suggest that it is more likely than not that Chicago makes its first postseason appearance sinec 2020.

So, here I am again wanting to simply allow the moment sink in and enjoy where the Bears are in the standings right now. When you’ve written about three coach firings, eight different offensive coordinators, and 10 different starting quarterbacks, you learn to appreciate the moments of sunshine when they break through the clouds. That we’re exploring the Bears Super Bowl odds in December feels significant. But the job isn’t done yet. Not even close.

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