The Budget watchdog has opened up fresh divisions with the Treasury in a series of coded jabs at the way Rachel Reeves tried to shift the blame for tax rises.
Richard Hughes, the chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), resigned on Monday over the leak of the Budget documents before the Chancellor’s speech last week.
His decision to step down came after Reeves had refused to back him and Sir Keir Starmer had publicly cast doubt on key OBR decision.
Speaking to the Commons Treasury committee, the remaining members of the OBR leadership raised questions about the Treasury’s communications strategy in the run-up to the Budget.
Reeves repeatedly suggested that the main reason taxes would have to go up was because of a “productivity review” carried out by the watchdog which downgraded projections of economic growth in future years – without mentioning that other factors had boosted the forecasts in a way which partially cancelled that out.
David Miles, a member of the budget responsibility committee which puts together the official forecasts, told MPs: “There was lots of information appearing in the press which wouldn’t normally be out there and this wasn’t, from our point of view, particularly helpful.”
The OBR put in a complaint to the Treasury about the apparent leaks, he added.
He also said the idea – briefed by Reeves’s team – that the Chancellor had abandoned the idea of raising income tax at the last minute because the OBR’s forecasts unexpectedly showed a big improvement was incorrect.
Professor David Miles, Member of Budget Responsibility Committee, appearing before the Treasury Committee, House of Commons/UK Parliament/PA WireMiles said there were not “funds down the back of the sofa” and the forecasts for the public finances were not “wildly fluctuating”. The claim that “good news” had suddenly appeared was a “misconception”, he insisted – adding: “I’m not sure where that came from, it didn’t exist.”
But he also said that Reeves was right to describe the Budget as “very challenging” given the “wafer thin” headroom left to her. Miles said: “A number that was plus £4bn in the pre-measures forecast is not inconsistent with the statement, the sentiment that this is a very challenging fiscal position.”
Tom Josephs, the other member left on the OBR committee, admitted there was “creative tension” between the watchdog and the Treasury, but Miles said: “I wouldn’t say we were at war with the Treasury. I mean, we have a very close relationship with the Treasury. In fact, we rely not just on the Treasury but other departments in government for analysis of many sorts of measures.”
He added: “There are lots of very good – from my point of view – economic analysts in the Treasury and we rely heavily upon them. I hope we can run a process in the future, and we’ll do everything we can, that is somewhat smoother than the process we’ve just been through.”
The pair confirmed that they had briefed Treasury officials in advance about their decision to publish a letter showing the amount of headroom in each round of OBR forecasts, which came out after the Budget and was seen by opposition politicians as evidence that Reeves had not been honest about the fiscal position.
Rachel Reeves has denied misleading the public over the OBR’s forecasts, and has been publicly backed by Keir Starmer.
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On Monday Starmer said: “There was no misleading, and I simply don’t accept, and I was receiving the numbers, that being told that the OBR productivity review means you’ve got £16 billion less than you would otherwise have had shows that you’ve got an easy starting point.
“There was a point at which we did think we would have to breach the manifesto in order to achieve what we wanted to achieve.
“Later on, it became possible to do it without the manifesto breach.”
A Downing Street spokesman denied on Tuesday that Hughes had been forced out by ministers and said the Government was committed to the independence of the OBR. The process to appoint a new chair will begin in the coming weeks, the spokesman added.
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