We look ahead to Wednesday’s Premier League game at Anfield with our Liverpool vs Sunderland prediction and preview. Can the Black Cats extend their lead over the Reds?
Liverpool vs Sunderland: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer has Liverpool as the 68.7% favourites to win this match against Sunderland. Sunderland are winless in their last 10 league meetings with the Reds and have not won any of their previous 18 at Anfield. Mohamed Salah has scored eight goals in his last seven Premier League appearances against promoted sides.Liverpool got back to winning ways with a 2-0 victory at West Ham on Sunday. It wasn’t as dramatic as Sunderland coming from 2-0 down to beat Bournemouth 3-2 the day before, but it was the routine victory Arne Slot will have been craving.
It carried echoes of other matches from the Dutchman’s tenure. The Reds opened the scoring in the 60th minute through their centre-forward before adding a second, just as they did at Ipswich in the first game of last season. When Lucas Paquetá was sent off, it was in the same minute (84th) as when Lesley Ugochukwu was dismissed in Liverpool’s 1-0 win at Burnley in September.
Slot wouldn’t mind if other elements of Reds history repeated on Wednesday night. Liverpool have won their last 12 Premier League matches against promoted clubs, while at Anfield they’ve won 26 of their last 28, including the most recent 12. The last promoted team to beat them there were Fulham in March 2021.
The Reds are also on an excellent run when playing under the lights during the week, losing just one of their last 25 midweek Premier League games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), winning 19 of them. Their last defeat in such a game was 2-0 at Everton in April 2024, while their previous midweek league loss in front of fans at Anfield was way back in 2012.
Any Premier League records for Sunderland are historic, given they spent the last eight seasons outside the top flight. Nonetheless, they failed to win any of their five midweek games in their previous Premier League campaign in 2016-17. They did well to earn a point from these matches as they failed to score in any of them.
Sunderland have also lost 13 of their 16 Premier League away games against reigning champions. Their two victories occurred at Chelsea in 2010-11 (3-0) and Manchester United in 2013-14 (1-0).
What should help Régis Le Bris’ side is that they have kept games tight on the road. Sunderland’s away Premier League matches this season have seen the fewest goals (with three for, six against); nine is the lowest total in a side’s first six away matches of a season since West Ham posted identical goal numbers at both ends in 2022-23.
The Black Cats can also look to prey on anxiety in the Anfield crowd and on the pitch. Liverpool have lost two of their last three home Premier League games, as many as in their previous 53 combined (of which 41 were won). They haven’t lost consecutive home games since a six-game losing run between January and March 2021, while in front of supporters that last happened in September 2012.
It will be fascinating to see what side Slot selects after his team delivered arguably their most controlled performance of the season last time out. They achieved it without Mohamed Salah, who was an unused substitute for the first time since a behind-closed-doors match at Everton in June 2020.
There’s an obvious reason why he should return to the lineup. Salah has scored eight goals in his last seven Premier League appearances against promoted sides. Sunderland are one of four sides he’s played without scoring against in his Premier League career. Even then, he has only faced them once as a substitute, back in his Chelsea days.
While Salah may return, there isn’t any need for Slot to make wholesale changes. His only absentees are all defenders: Conor Bradley, Jeremie Frimpong and Giovanni Leoni.
Sunderland only have two injured players at present themselves. Aji Alese and Habib Diarra are out of action but have only played 347 league minutes between them this season. Both teams will be at close to full strength.
If anything counts against Le Bris, it may be his nationality, believe it or not. French managers are winless in their last 16 Premier League meetings with the Reds since Arsène Wenger led Arsenal to a 4-1 win in April 2015.
There are a lot of long-standing records on the line here. Sunderland have the form to suggest they might break them.
Liverpool vs Sunderland Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is less relevant here than for most other Premier League fixtures because these teams haven’t met for almost nine years.
Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League games against Sunderland (winning six), since a 1-0 loss in March 2012. Their last meeting was a 2-2 draw in January 2017, with the previous Anfield encounter a 2-0 win for the Reds two months earlier.
That result continued a long running trend. Sunderland are winless in their last 18 away league games against Liverpool, drawing and losing nine each. Their last victory at Anfield was back in October 1983 (1-0).
They may not get too many better opportunities to end this win drought.
Liverpool vs Sunderland Prediction
Ignore the Premier League table. As defending champions at home against a promoted side, Liverpool are predictably favourites to take the three points. They won 67.4% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations of the match.
The next likeliest outcome is a draw, but that is only rated as a 17.9% shot. That leaves 14.7% on the side of a famous away win for Sunderland.
They won at world champions Chelsea, though, so why can’t they repeat that at Premier League champions Liverpool?
Liverpool vs Sunderland Predicted Lineups
Liverpool: Alisson Becker, Joe Gomez, Ibrahima Konaté, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, Florian Wirtz, Cody Gakpo, Alexander Isak.
Head coach: Arne Slot
Sunderland: Robin Roefs, Trai Hume, Nordi Mukiele, Dan Ballard, Lutsharel Geertruida, Reinildo Mandava, Bertrand Traoré, Granit Xhaka, Noah Sadiki, Enzo Le Fée, Wilson Isidor.
Head coach: Régis Le Bris
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday at Anfield, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Liverpool vs Sunderland Prediction: Can Reds Follow Up Weekend Success With Win at Anfield? Opta Analyst.
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