After Brandon Woodruff accepted the Brewers’ Qualifying Offer, I was texting with some friends about the state of the team’s projected payroll for 2026. I definitely wasn’t making any kind of prediction, nor was I celebrating the relative financial situations of the Brewers and Cubs, especially as the Cubs hardly act like a financial behemoth relative to the rest of the division. But I couldn’t help but note the payroll situation.
Consider that, in 2025, the Brewers’ payroll for luxury tax purposes was about $144 million, including the $20-ish million every team pays for benefits and the pre-arb bonus pool. Right now, on the books for 2026, without any other moves, the Brewers are already looking at a touch over $140 million.
Now, the Brewers did get a little extra scratch for their playoff run, but then again, they have frequently had playoff runs over the last decade, and their payroll has generally been in that $140 to $155 million range. And with the loss of the TV deal over the last two years, it’s hard for me to imagine payroll going up significantly from 2025 to 2026.
So, anyway, that is to say, without further movement that takes money off the books, it’s arguable that the Brewers can’t do much else this offseason. That’s just the numbers.
It’s now also the report, though it could very well wind up pushing the Brewers to do things that help them in the future anyway (The Athletic):
“In what has become an annual rite of autumn, the Milwaukee Brewers are fretting over their payroll, according to people briefed on their plans. The possibility exists that the team might need to subtract from their roster in order to add ….
“At a salary of $8 million, [Freddy] Peralta is attractive not just to interested clubs, but also to the Brewers. A trade of closer Trevor Megill would save Milwaukee a projected $4.2 million in arbitration, according to MLB Trade Rumors, while a trade of righty reliever Nick Mears would save $1.6 million. The Brewers likely would not trade both. And neither salary is particularly significant.
The best way to create payroll flexibility, then, might be for the Brewers to re-sign Woodruff to a multi-year contract at a lower average annual value. Such a deal also would protect the team against the expected loss of Peralta as a free agent at the end of the season.”
No surprises there, and Peralta – in his final year before free agency – has been a rumored trade candidate for a while, regardless of the financials. Trading him and/or Megill and/or Mears wouldn’t save a whole lot of payroll space, even if that were the nominal reason for trades. Instead, the trades would be more impactful in what they could bring back to the Brewers’ organization long-term.
Which, by the way, is the reason I really hope they don’t manage to make those trades. Opening up some payroll space is one thing – as the report indicates, they might be able to do that by working on Woodruff’s deal anyway – and, sure, the Brewers would be all the more concerning in 2026 if they could add. But it’s the fact that they keep on moving guys as they approach free agency, getting valuable pieces in return, and the cycle starts anew. It’s the classic small-market method, and the Brewers are making it work. I hate it. And in a backwards way, having “payroll concerns” actually helps them continue to do it! Money is tight, so we HAVE TO trade away guys who make money and get young talent back in return.
You almost wish the Cubs could somehow saw off the part of the approach that returns young talent, and yet doesn’t negatively impact the big league team. Not the saving money part, which always seems to be the focus in discussions about the Cubs’ maneuverings. I’m sure it’s something ownership would love the front office to be able to do, but without that extra push on having to move out salary, it just hasn’t been something the Cubs do. They sell off when they aren’t competitive, sure, but they don’t trade away potentially useful pieces during a competitive window. If you could do it without harming the big league team, it just seems like you shouldn’t need a financial reason to do it. You should do it because you can stay flat (or better) for the year ahead, while also improving long-term.
I suppose that’s all my way of reiterating my hate (and respect) for the Brewers, and my fear that they will indeed go off and trade Freddy Peralta and Trevor Megill (a former Cub, by the way) for significant value. They’ll use some of those funds to add a nice complementary player, and will otherwise cycle in new guys who step up and contribute in surprising ways in 2026 on the way to another 95+ wins.
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