Reform’s huge poll lead drops back as Tories gain ground after Budget ...Middle East

Reform UK has slipped back in the polls with a new poll for The i Paper suggesting the party’s lead over Labour and the Conservatives is shrinking.

Kemi Badenoch will be heartened by the poll as the Conservatives gain three points to hit their highest poll rating since March, which pollsters said could be the “first shoots of recovery”.

Nigel Farage’s party remains ahead of all its competitors, according to the post-Budget poll by BMG Research, but voters’ trust in Reform and in its leader appears to have declined.

The survey is the latest piece of evidence that Reform has reached a plateau in popular support after a rapid rise over the year following the general election.

Reform’s loss of five points from 35 per cent to 30 per cent follows a difficult few months for the party and its leader – with splits in its flagship local authority in Kent and Farage having to deny claims he made racist remarks to school friends almost 50 years ago.

No one party stands out in benefiting from Reform’s relative decline, with each of Labour, the Tories, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens getting between 12 and 22 per cent of the vote.

Farage slips back as Badenoch gains

The insurgent right-wing party holds an eight-point lead, down from 15 points in the last BMG poll in August but still enough for a Commons majority if an election were held now.

Reform is on 30 per cent with Labour second on 22 per cent, the Conservatives taking 20 per cent and the Lib Dems and Greens tied with 12 per cent each.

The Greens are the biggest winners in the polling, surging by five points after the party’s new outspoken leader Jack Polanski turned them decisively to the left.

Ed Davey’s Lib Dems remain static on 12 per cent – they have not gone higher than 14 per cent since the May election, when they won 13 per cent of the vote.

Farage’s personal ratings have slipped backwards: 33 per cent of voters are satisfied with how he is doing his job and 39 per cent are unsatisfied, for a net figure of -6 – the first time since March he has been in negative territory.

That is significantly better than Sir Keir Starmer, who is on -45 with just 18 per cent of voters backing him, but Farage is now lagging behind Kemi Badenoch who, on -3, is the most popular leader at the moment.

The improvement in her personal rating follows an improvement in her performance at PMQs, and well-received response to Rachel Reeves’s Budget.

In August, Reform was rated as the party most trusted to handle most areas of policy issues, including the economy and cost of living, but it has gone backwards on many while still holding a 15-point lead on immigration and a smaller lead on crime.

‘Remarkable’ jump for Badenoch

The Conservatives are most trusted to deal with the economy, taxation and security, with Labour preferred on the cost of living, healthcare, education and housing.

Jack Curry of BMG said: “Kemi Badenoch’s increase in popularity could reflect the first shoots of a broader Conservative recovery. Since August, the party has clawed back from the bottom of its vote intention and, crucially, overtaken Reform on several key issues for the first time since May, including pensions, the economy and taxation.

“Badenoch’s satisfaction rating has jumped remarkably, making her the most popular party leader this month. This momentum suggests that recent policy positioning and a sharper economic narrative are resonating with voters, giving the Conservatives a much-needed foothold as we head into winter.

“With the narrative cementing that Reform are favourites to win, these numbers hint that the public may be thinking more carefully about Farage and Reform, asking whether they represent a credible governing party rather than simply a vehicle for protest.”

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Reform has held a lead in every opinion poll published since the local elections in May, but there are signs of a five-way political split which could make a general election highly unpredictable.

The Greens are the latest party to surge in popularity since electing Zack Polanski as their leader in September.

“This is the first time we have had five parties over 10 per cent, reflecting the fractured landscape of British politics,” Curry said.

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