FPL Challenge GW13 Tips: Best Out-of-Possession Players to Target for Recoveries ...Middle East

In Fantasy Challenge GW13 our attention shifts to what players do out of possession, with every ball recovery worth an additional point. That opens the door for a different sort of player to shine this week. So, who should we target? As always, we consult the Opta data to find out.

Last week’s Fantasy Challenge rule tweak rewarded players for their ability on the ball, but in Gameweek 13 the spotlight turns to their defensive work, with every ball recovery earning players an extra point.

That makes understanding how Opta defines a ball recovery pretty fundamental.

A recovery is defined as when a player takes control of a loose ball – either in a situation where neither team has possession or when a player receives an uncontrolled ball from an opponent, and regains possession for their side.

It won’t surprise readers to learn that midfielders tend to post high numbers in this metric, given how frequently the ball changes hands in central areas.

But goalkeepers also feature heavily, recovering possession through claiming crosses and sweeping actions.

In fact, the top 10 players for recoveries per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season are all keepers, with Sunderland’s Robin Roefs leading the way with 10 recoveries per 90. That’s potentially 10 bonus points that he could add to his score this week, more than double the value of a clean sheet.

With that context in mind, here are our FPL GW13 picks.

Goalkeeper

Emiliano Martínez: Aston Villa vs Wolves (H)

As mentioned, goalkeepers should score well under this rule, so we’re almost guaranteed a solid haul regardless of who we pick. That lets us look at more traditional ways to score points, like clean sheet potential. Emiliano Martínez fits the bill for us here.

Martínez averages 8.7 recoveries per 90 – the eighth-highest of any Premier League player with 500+ minutes – and has a great match-up this weekend when Villa host struggling Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Rob Edwards’ side remain rooted to the bottom of the table with just two points, and (just like their points tally) they’re the only side this season yet to hit double figures for goals scored.

Wolves’ 6.2% shot conversion rate is the poorest in the league, and their expected goals average in away games this season (0.56 per game) also ranks dead last.

Villa have won six of their last seven league games, and the Opta supercomputer gives them a 72.7% chance of victory. With a strong chance of a clean sheet, plus some guaranteed recovery points, Martínez should perform well this week.

Defenders

Tyrick Mitchell: Crystal Palace vs Manchester United (H)

When it comes to defenders who make plenty of recoveries, it’s typically wing-backs and full-backs who perform the best, particularly those who get into advanced areas to pounce on loose balls.

As the above table shows, Tyrick Mitchell is one of the league leaders in this area, ranking second among all defenders for recoveries per 90 (5.59), and should offer us a reliable stream of bonus points.

Going forward, Crystal Palace channel a lot of their play down the left flank, where Mitchell leads all Palace players for crosses per 90 (2.8) and is their most creative defender (0.8 chances created per 90).

Defensively, Oliver Glasner’s side have also been excellent. Only Arsenal (6) have conceded fewer goals than the Eagles (9), and they host Manchester United this gameweek, with Ruben Amorim’s side coming into this game off the back of a limp display against Everton.

Palace are unbeaten in 12 straight Premier League home games, and given United have failed to score in each of their last four league meetings with Palace, returns at both ends look very much a possibility for Mitchell.

Midfielders

Elliot Anderson: Nottingham Forest vs Brighton (H)

There’s got to be space in our team for the ball-recovery king. Arise, Sir Elliot Anderson. Nottingham Forest’s all-action midfielder is the only outfield player in the top 19 (!) players for ball recoveries per 90, making a whopping 8.17 on average.

That output on its own could match a midfielder scoring a goal plus getting three traditional bonus points.

Of course, ball recoveries also count towards a midfielder’s defensive contribution total, and Anderson has consistently cleared the 12-point threshold in that metric. He’s hit double figures for defensive contributions (DEFCON) every game this season and has exceeded 12 points in four of his last five.

Add in his set-piece threat – Anderson has created 1.5 chances per 90, the second-most at Forest behind Callum Hudson-Odoi – and he becomes a great option for this ruleset.

Bukayo Saka: Chelsea vs Arsenal (A)

In some ways, Bukayo Saka is the perfect asset this week, combining high attacking output with underrated defensive work. Saka averages 5.7 recoveries per 90, the eighth-highest among all outfield players, giving us a decent bump on top of his threat in front of goal.

The English winger is averaging 0.56 expected goals and expected assists combined per 90 this season, which is perhaps modest given his high standards, but it’s the second-best rate among Arsenal players behind Viktor Gyökeres (0.58).

With Gyökeres still easing back from injury, Saka should once again shoulder much of Arsenal’s attacking burden at Stamford Bridge, and he’s on penalties as well.

Iliman Ndiaye: Everton vs Newcastle (H)

Iliman Ndiaye also offers value on both sides of the ball. No forward player is able to operate in a David Moyes’ side without putting in a shift off the ball and Ndiaye is no different. With 6.4 recoveries per 90, he ranks third among all outfield players.

Going forward, he is Everton’s leading goalscorer this season, and has shown on numerous occasions that he has exceptional dribbling quality to unlock defences.

Everton head into the weekend off the back of a huge win away at Manchester United, and while Newcastle enjoyed a home win against Manchester City, they came crashing down to earth in the Champions League with a 2-1 defeat at Marseille.

The Magpies are a totally different side on the road. They’re winless away from home this season and have lost four straight away in all competitions.

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Forward

Erling Haaland: Manchester City vs Leeds (H)

Erling Haaland isn’t going to rack up recovery points for us. He averages just 1.3 per 90, with only three players (all centre-forwards) posting a lower average among those to have played 500+ minutes.

But that hardly matters. City at home to Leeds is such a favourable fixture that Haaland – on the hunt for his 100th Premier League goal – remains a set-and-forget pick each gameweek.

Opta Analyst’s Team Reveal: Gameweek 13 FPL Challenge Picks

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FPL Challenge GW13 Tips: Best Out-of-Possession Players to Target for Recoveries Opta Analyst.

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