Wonder why California homebuying runs at generational lows?
Here’s one undervalued factor: Renting appears to be a significant bargain – even if it’s also expensive.
Zillow has brought ownership expenses to the housing spotlight in a study of what it calls “hidden” ownership expenses: maintenance, property taxes and insurance. Adding those costs to already painful mortgage payments provides a more comprehensive snapshot of the financial burden of ownership. And you can see how owning is costlier than what typical renters pay their landlords.
My trusty spreadsheet broke down Zillow’s hidden cost estimates for 30 large metropolitan areas – including four in California – and contrasted those expenses with another significant monetary headache: the mortgage. These total housing costs were compared with Zillow’s estimates of rents for those metro areas to determine how much renters are ahead of buyers in terms of monthly costs.
Contemplate the median results for the four California metros.
Typical rents, according to Zillow’s count, run $2,985 a month, compared with $6,316 in monthly ownership costs – that includes a mortgage at 6.4% with a 20% down payment on a $933,000 residence. By the way, that $186,000 down payment is not included in these buyer costs.
These calculations show the standard California rental can theoretically save a household $3,331 a month compared with owning. That is a 47% discount on housing expenses.
Renter’s bounty
Just how wide is that gap?
Let’s assume California rents increase by 5% annually going forward. Meanwhile, housing costs are kept steady – a highly unlikely scenario because while the mortgage rate may be fixed, those hidden costs – taxes, insurance and maintenance – will likely inflate over time.
Still, with my ownership-friendly calculation – this rent-vs.-own gap would take 16 years to close. That’s 2041.
Ownership fans, please save the “you’re paying your landlord’s mortgage” or “what about building equity” pleadings. This is an almost unfathomable chasm.
The typical California renter, financially speaking, is making a reasonable decision.
And this is not a California quirk due to its lofty housing burdens.
The median results for the 26 metros outside of California show $1,838 monthly rent – 38% cheaper than the Golden State. Ownership costs run $3,383, 46% less than in California.
Nationally, renters save $1,545 monthly. That 55% discount would take 13 years to evaporate with my ownership-friendly math.
Locally speaking
Think about the four California metros with the same rent-vs.-buy math, ranked by how many years it might take for renters’ monthly savings to disappear …
San Francisco: The gap would take 18 years to fix. Zillow’s $3,148 monthly rent estimate – No. 2 nationally – vs. $7,470 monthly ownership costs (No. 1). Renters save $4,322 monthly, or 42%.
Los Angeles-Orange County: 18 years to fix with $3,148 rent estimate – No. 5 nationally – vs. $7,470 monthly ownership costs (No. 2). Renters save $3,450 monthly, or 46%.
San Diego: 15 years to fix with $3,016 monthly rent (No. 3) vs. $6,227 ownership costs (No. 3). Renters can save $3,211 monthly. That’s 48%.
Sacramento: 13 years to fix with $2,300 monthly rent (No. 8) vs. $4,378 monthly ownership costs (No. 8). Renters can save $2,078 monthly. That’s 53%.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
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