Can Eddie Howe’s side continue their strong run in the UEFA Champions League? We look ahead to Tuesday’s clash with our Marseille vs Newcastle United prediction and preview.
Marseille vs Newcastle: The Key Stats
Newcastle managed victory in 39% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer, just ahead of Marseille’s 34.2% chance of winning. Marseille are winless in their last 12 games against English sides in Europe (D3 L9). Newcastle will be looking to win four consecutive matches for the first time in the UEFA Champions League.Newcastle United will hope Saturday’s morale-boosting victory over Manchester City can further inspire an already strong Champions League start when they travel to Marseille on Tuesday.
Eddie Howe’s side had struggled to get going in the Premier League, but their season may have been kick-started by Saturday evening’s 2-1 victory over Man City. Harvey Barnes‘ second-half double was enough to see Newcastle beat Pep Guardiola’s side at St. James’ Park.
Newcastle’s form in Europe has been far stronger than domestically. They have won their last three Champions League games, and will be aiming for four in a row in the competition for the first time in club history.
Union Saint-Gilloise, Benfica and Athletic Club have all been swept aside since their Matchday 1 defeat to Barcelona, with Newcastle’s three clean sheets in a row is already their most in the competition’s history.
At the other end of the pitch, the Magpies have scored 10 goals in four Champions League matches this term, already six more than in their previous appearance in the competition (6 in 6 games in 2023-24).
That being said, Newcastle are one of only five sides with a shot conversion rate of 20% or higher this season (20% – 10 goals from 50 shots), suggesting Howe’s men could regress in front of goal at some point.
Central to those attacking exploits has been Anthony Gordon, whose five goal involvements (4 goals, 1 assist) can only be bettered by Galatasaray’s Victor Osimhen (6) this season. Alan Shearer, who had seven in 2002-03 (6 goals, 1 assist), is the only Newcastle player with more goal involvements in a single Champions League campaign.
Bruno Guimarães has also played his role as the creator. The Brazilian has made the joint-most passes breaking the opposition’s defensive line in the league phase (9 – level with Bayern Munich’s Joshua Kimmich).
Overall, Atlético Madrid (35) are the only team with more defensive line-breaking passes than Newcastle (32) in the competition this campaign, leaving Roberto De Zerbi with questions over how to organise his Marseille backline.
De Zerbi and Howe are familiar with one another, with the Marseille head coach previously managing Brighton & Hove Albion. The pair have each won one of their previous three meetings across all competitions (D1), and if their head-to-head record is anything to go by, then expect entertainment.
The three previous fixtures between Howe and De Zerbi have seen their respective sides share 11 goals (6 for Newcastle, 5 for Brighton), at an average of 3.7 per game.
If De Zerbi is to topple Howe in another high-scoring thriller, Marseille may look to Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Igor Paixão, who have combined for three goals in the Champions League this season. With two assists by Aubameyang and one by Paixão, it is the most of any duo in this campaign.
Regardless of their attacking efforts, Marseille have just one win from four games, beating Ajax 4-0 on MD2. They have dropped six points from winning positions in the Champions League this season, more than any other side.
Marseille are also the only side to have lost multiple matches in this season’s competition in which they scored the opening goal (2). Both instances came in 2-1 defeats against Real Madrid and Sporting CP away from home.
De Zerbi’s side will head into this one full of confidence, though, having smashed Nice 5-1 on Friday to move two points behind Ligue 1 leaders Paris Saint-Germain. Mason Greenwood scored twice along with goals for Aubameyang, Timothy Weah and Paixão.
In terms of team news for Marseille, Rubén Blanco and Bilal Nadir could be nearing a return for Tuesday’s fixture, while Amine Gouiri, Nayef Aguerd and Hamed Traorè will be assessed.
Howe may have Gordon back fit for the trip, while Dan Burn could return to the starting XI after his domestic suspension. Kieran Trippier will hope to shake off a slight knock, though Will Osula and Yoane Wissa are out until next month.
Marseille vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
This pair have only met twice before in Europe, with Marseille winning 2-0 at home after a goalless first leg draw to reach the 2003-04 UEFA Cup final before defeat to Valencia, managed by future Magpies boss Rafa Benitez.
Newcastle have previously faced French sides eight times away from home in European competition, with their only victory (D3 L4) coming in a 4-0 win at Sochaux in the UEFA Cup in November 2004.
But Marseille’s record against English teams is worse, going winless in their last 12 matches in Europe (D3 L9).
Their last such win came against Chelsea back in December 2010 (1-0 in the Champions League), while they have scored just five goals across those 12 matches.
Marseille vs Newcastle Prediction
The Opta supercomputer backed Newcastle as the slight favourites, with the away side winning 39% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Marseille were afforded a healthy 34.2% chance of victory, while the draw was rated at 26.8%.
Marseille vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups
Marseille: Gerónimo Rulli, Timothy Weah, Benjamin Pavard, CJ Egan-Riley, Emerson, Ulisses Garcia, Mason Greenwood, Matt O’Riley, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Igor Paixão, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
Head coach: Roberto De Zerbi
Newcastle United: Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, Dan Burn, Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali, Joelinton, Anthony Elanga, Harvey Barnes, Nick Woltemade.
Head coach: Eddie Howe
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off in France on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Marseille vs Newcastle Prediction: Can Magpies Win Unprecedented Four in a Row? Opta Analyst.
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