Will Those Seiya Suzuki Trade Rumors Come Back This Offseason? ...Middle East

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Will Those Seiya Suzuki Trade Rumors Come Back This Offseason?

Do you remember those Seiya Suzuki trade rumors last offseason? I don’t blame you if you’ve blocked them out. They were odd and eventually fizzled out (once Cody Bellinger was dealt), but not before being addressed directly by Suzuki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, who flat out confirmed that Cubs President Jed Hoyer approached him about the possibility: “Jed has been very communicative about it,” Wolfe said via Jordan Bastian at Cubs.com. “He told me what teams they’ve been talking to. I don’t think he wants to trade Seiya, but there may be a scenario where he feels like he has a deal he can’t say, ‘no,’ to. So he’s talked to us about what teams Seiya would consider.”

At the time of the rumors, the Cubs were trying to clear some money and also, presumably, make some “room” in their lineup as they quietly approached a deal for Kyle Tucker. Now, a year later, Tucker and Bellinger are both gone, but I still wonder if the Cubs would consider dealing Shota Imanaga. I strongly do not think they should, unless they’re planning a far bigger and more aggressive offseason than anyone anticipates, but I do want to lay out some of the reasons and considerations as we approach the meaty part of the offseason.

    Will Seiya Suzuki Trade Rumors Heat Back Up?

    Consider for a second, the reasons Seiya Suzuki trade rumors might pop up organically this offseason. And do so from the perspective of (1) Suzuki/his agent, (2) the Cubs (internal), and (3) the Cubs (external).

    Again, I hope, at the end of this, we all agree that keeping Seiya Suzuki is the better option for the 2026 Chicago Cubs, but these are reasons why I could see the rumors popping back up and why the Cubs/Suzuki might consider them.

    © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

    Seiya Suzuki’s Perspective

    Seiya Suzuki just wrapped up his age-30 season and is heading into his final year under contract. That means, after 2026, he’s going to hit free agency as a 31-year-old slugger who has demonstrated a very real ability to be an impact offensive player in this league.

    Obviously, we don’t know what will happen in 2026, but if it’s anything like his first four years in Chicago, he’s going to be highly sought-after…

    2022: 118 wRC+, 14 HRs, 2.0 WAR 2023: 127 wRC+, 20 HRs, 3.1 WAR 2024: 137 wRC+, 21 HRs, 3.5 WAR 2025: 123 wRC+, 32 HRs, 2.6 WAR

    … but here’s the thing: For however much we all like his bat, he’s a significantly more valuable player when he’s playing right field than when he’s a DH exclusively. So if the Cubs once again have plans to park him primarily at DH this year, with Owen Caissie (maybe paired with someone like Rob Refsnyder?) taking the majority of starts in right field, then Suzuki’s narrative and earning power heading into free agency will be severely hampered.

    And I can tell you confidently that he and his agent will be thinking about that. If there is no chance that Suzuki is going to get a majority of starts in right field this season (debatable, for sure, because we just do not know what the plan is for Owen Caissie or Moises Ballesteros at this point), then they will be open to a trade to get him somewhere he can continue to demonstrate that he’s more than a DH.

    It’s exactly why they were open to it last offseason.

    The Cubs (Internal) Perspective

    This is the most difficult argument to craft, because I actually believe the Cubs should keep Seiya Suzuki next season. But I suppose you can imagine a world in which they think opening up right field for Owen Caissie and DH for Moises Ballesteros … combined with what you get by trading Seiya Suzuki (good players/prospects + $19M in payroll) … is better for the organization long-term.

    Maybe they just really believe in those guys’ bats. Maybe they think Seiya Suzuki’s 2025 shift from a more well-rounded skillset to a more power-centric approach won’t serve him well. Maybe they don’t WANT him playing right field for defensive reasons. Maybe they just don’t want to lose him at the end of the season for nothing.

    I think those are all pretty thin, but the Cubs don’t have a lot of positional or (sigh) financial flexibility to transform their offense this winter (which is not to say they NEED to do that), and this is one route.

    Just look at this Jordan Bastian (Cubs.com) quote from LAST offseason and you can see how it almost applies again this winter:

    “The Suzuki situation falls within Cubs’ search for ways to upgrade a Major League roster lacking positional vacancies in the starting lineup. If Hoyer and his front office team want to reorganize the lineup — creating pathways for the group of Top 100 prospects knocking on MLB’s door — the trade market is the logical route.”

    It’s basically the same story.

    © Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

    The Cubs (External) Perspective

    Now here’s a more convincing argument, one that was spurred initially by Ken Rosenthal’s mini-rumor yesterday about the Cubs and right-handed free agent outfielder Rob Refsnyder:

    “Refsnyder crushes lefties, we know that. And as I mentioned early on, the availability of right-handed hitting outfielders is not great. Refsnyder is actually one of the better ones available…”

    With all due respect to Rob Refsnyder … if he’s “one of the better” right-handed hitting outfielders available, then the Chicago Cubs have a SIGNIFICANT asset on their hands in the form of a one-year, $19M deal for Seiya Suzuki. Because that’s a relative steal.

    Sure, free agents Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger are both right fielders capable of hitting left-handed pitching, even though they are, themselves, lefties. But both guys are expected to command very significant deals: Tucker north of $350M, Bellinger north of $150M. Seiya Suzuki, then, represents a low-cost alternative, with less defensive upside, but enough offensive potential to be included in the conversation.

    Taking this one step further, one of the teams most interested in adding a free agent outfielder this offseason is the Los Angeles Dodgers. And while they have been connected to Kyle Tucker, their interest there is said to be on the sort of shorter-term, high-AAV deal he’s probably not eager to accept. And while Bellinger could also make some sense, it’s a little more difficult to imagine him returning on a monster contract. Both possible, but less likely than other landing spots in my opinion.

    But more to the point, the Dodgers were keen on Seiya Suzuki last offseason.

    It was a whole multi-day topic of conversation. And their needs (plus ability to get such a deal done) remain wholly unchanged. Moreover, you can bet Suzuki would have the Dodgers (with their cache of Japanese stars, persistent success, and geographic advantage for Japanese players looking to be a little closer to home) on his short-list of teams to which he’d accept a trade.

    ***

    Again, I haven’t seen this pop up anywhere yet, but the idea struck me as I considered the free agent outfield landscape, the previous rumors, the Cubs positional and financial rigidity, and the individual, financial incentives Seiya Suzuki may have for considering such a deal.

    I hope the Cubs just hang onto Seiya Suzuki, because I think he rocks both on and off the field, but I do wonder if this might pop up again. So keep an eye out, I guess.

    For what it’s worth, Steamer projects Suzuki to slash .254/.326/.478 (120 wRC+) with 24 HRs and 82 RBI next season.

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