No. 16 USC (8-2 overall, 6-1 Big Ten) at USC (9-1, 6-1)
When: 12:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
TV/radio: CBS (Ch. 2)/ESPN LA 710
Line: Oregon by 9.5
NOTABLE INJURIES
USC: OUT: RB Eli Sanders (knee), CB Chasen Johnson (knee); QUESTIONABLE: RB Waymond Jordan (ankle), LB Anthony Beavers, Jr. (undisclosed), CB Prophet Brown (undisclosed), DL Jamaal Jarrett (undisclosed), OL J’Onre Reed (undisclosed), RB Harry Dalton III (undisclosed), K Caden Chittenden (undisclosed).
Oregon: OUT: WR Kyler Kasper (undisclosed), RB Makhi Hughes (redshirt), OL Bryce Boulton (undisclosed), WR Evan Stewart (knee), CB Trey McNutt (leg); QUESTIONABLE: OL Gernorris Wilson (undisclosed), RB Da’Juan Riggs (undisclosed), WR Jack Ressler (undisclosed), WR Dakorien Moore (knee), RB Jayden Limar (undisclosed), CB Sione Laulea (undisclosed), WR Dillon Gresham (undisclosed), WR Gary Bryant, Jr. (ankle), DL Tionne Gray (undisclosed).
What’s at stake? USC is again playing in what could serve as an unofficial College Football Playoff elimination game. The Trojans moved up to No. 15 in the CFP rankings after beating Iowa, dramatically improving their chances of making the CFP for the first time in program history. A win in Eugene would almost guarantee a spot in the playoffs. Conversely, a loss for the Ducks could keep them out of the playoffs. Oregon is No. 7 in the playoff rankings and poised to compete in the postseason if it beats USC and Washington to win out the season. If the Ducks lose to USC and both teams finish the season 10-2, the Trojans could have the edge if the committee looks closely at head-to-head results – especially since Oregon has only two teams currently ranked in USC and Indiana on a relatively weak schedule
Who’s better? USC has the No. 6 offense in the FBS thanks to an explosive offense that regularly manufactures big-yardage plays through the air. The Trojans could meet their match in Oregon’s defense, which allows the third-fewest yards in the country. The Ducks have the best passing defense in the Big Ten, allowing just 127.3 yards a game, and also have a conference-leading 46 pass breakups and 55 passes defended. Oregon’s other big advantage is in the run game, which is best in the Big Ten. Noah Whittington and Jordon Davison are a one-two punch in the backfield and have combined to rattle off 13 runs of 30 yards or more and 28 runs of 20 yards or more. The Trojans’ defense has started slowly in the last two games, and has been susceptible when it comes to run fits and gap integrity this season.
Matchup to watch: USC receiver Makai Lemon vs. Oregon’s secondary. There has yet to be a defense this season that can figure out how to contain the NFL-bound slot receiver due to his ability to make contested catches and gain yards after catches. The Ducks may have to opt with four defensive backs up high in an attempt to limit Lemon as well as fellow difficult-to-guard receiver Ja’Kobi Lane.
USC wins if: USC will need to play its most complete game of the season if it wants to beat Oregon. If the defense gets to work right away, especially in the trenches, the Trojans can hang with the Ducks.
Prediction: Oregon 28, USC 24. The Trojans will be able to score in this game, but won’t put up enough points to get past the Ducks’ defense.
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