The non-tender deadline is Friday evening. Teams need to decide whether they want to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible (and pre-arbitration) players. Those who are not tendered contracts are sent directly into free agency without exposing them to waivers.
As is the case each winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected salaries for the arbitration class. Some of those players have already been dropped from the roster. A few of the most obvious cuts were dropped within the first five days of the offseason as teams needed to get their offseason roster counts back to 40 without the benefit of the injured list.
Some more were designated for assignment on Tuesday as teams opened space for prospects whom they wanted to keep out of the Rule 5 draft. Those players remain in DFA limbo and are marked below with an asterisk. There’s still a scenario in which they’re tendered a contract. The club that DFA them could trade them before Friday to a team that is fine with the projected arbitration price and keeps them around. While that might happen for a player or two, the vast majority of them will just be non-tendered.
Not everyone who is tendered a contract will know their salary this week. Some players will sign “pre-tender” deals that lock in guaranteed money. Many of them are borderline non-tender candidates who will take salaries below their projection to ensure they stay on the roster at all. (A’s catcher Austin Wynns has already taken this kind of deal.) Those who don’t sign but are tendered a contract could have a few months of uncertainty. They’re free to continue negotiating with their clubs to find a mutually agreeable salary until the date of their arbitration hearing.
The collective bargaining agreement incentivizes borderline roster players to settle without a hearing even if they’re tendered a contract. Arbitration settlements are fully guaranteed. Salaries determined at a hearing (regardless of whether the arbitrator chose the club’s or player’s filing figure) are not locked in until the beginning of the regular season. If a player whose salary was determined at a hearing is released during the offseason or in Spring Training, they’re only entitled to termination pay. That’d be 30 days at their prorated salary if the release occurs more than 15 days before Opening Day and 45 days of termination pay if the release happens within 15 days of the start of the season.
As we do each offseason, we’ll take a look at arb-eligible players we believe have a realistic shot at being let go. To be clear, this is not a list of players we think are likelier than not to be non-tendered. These are players we consider to have at least a 10-20% chance of being cut — a broad group who wouldn’t strike us as completely surprising. We’re only looking at players who are eligible for arbitration. There’ll be plenty of pre-arbitration players from the back of teams’ rosters who are dropped (often to immediately re-sign on minor league deals), but those are outside the scope of this post.
Onto the list, with Matt’s projected salaries:
Catchers
Riley Adams (Nationals): $1.5MM Luis Campusano (Padres): $1MM Jonah Heim (Rangers): $6MM Alex Jackson (Orioles): $1.8MM Andrew Knizner (Giants): $1.3MM Reese McGuire (Cubs): $1.9MM Garrett Stubbs (Phillies): $925K Connor Wong (Red Sox): $1.6MMFirst Basemen
Jake Bauers (Brewers): $2MM Jake Burger (Rangers): $3.5MM Nathaniel Lowe (Red Sox): $13.5MM* Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles): $7.8MM Pavin Smith (Diamondbacks): $2.4MMSecond Basemen
Vidal Bruján (Braves): $800K Mauricio Dubón (Astros): $5.8MM Luis García Jr. (Nationals): $7MM Jonathan India (Royals): $7.4MM Gavin Lux (Reds): $5MM Michael Massey (Royals): $2MMThird Basemen
Alec Bohm (Phillies): $10.3MM Oswaldo Cabrera (Yankees): $1.2MM Ezequiel Duran (Rangers): $1.4MM Andy Ibáñez (Tigers): $1.8MM Ramón Urías (Astros): $4.4MM*Shortstops
Nick Allen (Braves): $1.5MMCenter Fielders
JJ Bleday (Athletics): $2.2MM* Derek Hill (White Sox): $1MM Jake McCarthy (Diamondbacks): $1.9MM Jack Suwinski (Pirates): $1.7MM Matt Vierling (Tigers): $3.1MMCorner Outfielders
Will Benson (Reds): $1.7MM Will Brennan (Guardians): $900K Jake Fraley (Rays): $3.6MM* Tyler Freeman (Rockies): $1.8MM Adolis García (Rangers): $12.1MM Sam Haggerty (Rangers): $1.4MM Nolan Jones (Guardians): $2MM Trevor Larnach (Twins): $4.7MM MJ Melendez (Royals): $2.65MM Christopher Morel (Rays): $2.6MM* Luke Raley (Mariners): $1.8MM Jesús Sánchez (Astros): $6.5MM Mike Tauchman (White Sox): $3.4MM Taylor Trammell (Astros): $900K Eli White (Braves): $1.2MMDesignated Hitters
David Fry (Guardians): $1.2MMStarting Pitchers
Bailey Falter (Royals): $3.3MM Ryan Feltner (Rockies): $2.3MM Jake Irvin (Nationals): $3.3MM Alek Manoah (Braves): $2.2MM Luis Medina (Athletics): $900K Andre Pallante (Cardinals): $3.4MM JP Sears (Padres): $3.5MM José Suarez (Braves): $1.5MM Ken Waldichuk (Athletics): $900K Joey Wentz (Braves): $1.1MMRight-Handed Relievers
Jason Adam (Padres): $6.8MM Jorge Alcala (Cardinals): $2.1MM* Anthony Bender (Marlins): $2.3MM Jake Bird (Yankees): $1MM Beau Brieske (Tigers): $1.3MM JT Brubaker (Giants): $2.1MM Yennier Cano (Orioles): $1.8MM Jake Cousins (Yankees): $841K Enyel De Los Santos (Astros): $2.1MM Camilo Doval (Yankees): $6.6MM Scott Effross (Yankees): $800K Matt Festa (Guardians): $1MM Jason Foley (Tigers): $3.15MM* Reed Garrett (Mets): $1.4MM Kevin Ginkel (Diamondbacks): $3MM Ian Hamilton (Yankees): $941K Colin Holderman (Pirates): $1.7MM* Kevin Kelly (Rays): $1MM Jackson Kowar (Mariners): $800K Max Kranick (Mets): $1MM Mark Leiter Jr. (Yankees): $3MM James McArthur (Royals): $800K Nick Mears (Brewers): $1.6MM Dauri Moreta (Pirates): $800K* Eli Morgan (Cubs): $1.1MM Evan Phillips (Dodgers): $6.1MM — expected to miss most or all of 2026 after undergoing elbow surgery in June Tanner Rainey (Tigers): $1.6MM* Yohan Ramírez (Pirates): $1.2MM Gregory Santos (Mariners): $800K Josh Sborz (Rangers): $1.1MM Brock Stewart (Dodgers): $1.4MM Albert Suárez (Orioles): $900K Cole Sulser (Rays): $1.2MM Ryan Thompson (Diamondbacks): $3.9MM Trent Thornton (Mariners): $2.5MM Justin Topa (Twins): $1.7MM Josh Winckowski (Red Sox): $800K*Left-Handed Relievers
Keegan Akin (Orioles): $3MM Anthony Banda (Dodgers): $1.7MM José Castillo (Mets): $1.7MM Sam Hentges (Guardians): $1.3375MM John King (Cardinals): $2.1MM Joey Lucchesi (Giants): $2MM Sam Moll (Reds): $1.2MM Andrew Nardi (Marlins): $800K A.J. Puk (Diamondbacks): $3.3MM — expected to miss most of 2026 after undergoing elbow surgery in June Tayler Saucedo (Mariners): $1.1MM** Indicates player is currently in DFA limbo
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