The Chicago Cubs are getting Shota Imanaga back for 2026 on a one-year, $22 million deal, per a Patrick Mooney report. As we suspected he might, Imanaga is accepting the Cubs’ Qualifying Offer, rather than risk an uncertain free agency with draft pick compensation attached.
It has been said that there is no such thing as a bad one-year deal, and that had to be some of the philosophy animating the Cubs’ willingness to extend the Qualifying Offer in the first place. They had to know Imanaga may well accept, and they therefore had to be content to have him back on that deal.
Through his first two years with the Cubs, Imanaga posted a 3.28 ERA (20% better than league average) over 54 starts and 318.0 innings. That figure was much better in 2024 than 2025, and the peripherals have generally been closer to average. The hope is that the 32-year-old lefty can get over whatever hamstring issues lingered in the second half last year (and/or impacted his mechanics/velocity), and perform close enough to the guy he was in 2024 and the first half of 2025. Do that, and the Cubs will be very happy about today’s decision.
The downside here, such as it is, would be the loss of those $22 million in funds that the Cubs could’ve directed elsewhere. We know they have a budget. We know that budget is not enormous. So this matters.
That said, if Shota Imanaga pitches reasonably well – even something between his 2024 and 2025 performances – it’s hard to imagine the Cubs finding that same level of performance on a one-year, $22 million deal anyway. So how much is actually lost in those funds?
That is all to say, the Cubs effectively added one of two starting pitchers today on a market-rate, one-year deal. They can talk trades on him, but I highly doubt they would move Imanaga. They can also talk about a multi-year deal, but my gut says both sides are going to prefer to keep this at the one-year, $22 million level right now.
I don’t think this changes the calculus on needing an impact starting pitcher at the front of the rotation one iota, it just means there’s much less impetus to add a second.
For today, the rotation lines up something like Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele (eventually), Colin Rea/Javier Assad/Ben Brown/Jordan Wicks. It’s not at all hard to see why there’s still a need there.
Meanwhile, the Cubs get Shota Imanaga back, coming off a down second half in 2025, where he’ll be heavily incentivized to figure out this offseason how he can get back on track in 2026. Whether that means getting that lost click back on his fastball, figuring out why it lost its “rise”, improving execution, or rebalancing the pitch mix. I like Imanaga as the kind of experienced veteran who can augment his performance through a little pitchability, too, especially when we all know the main thing he needs to work on: belt-level pitches that find the seats.
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