We have reached the stage of back recovery where I can get in and out of bed without much pain, so we are humming right along. I have a dentist appointment today, and I wonder if they can jab some novocaine into my lower back while I’m there.
If you missed it last night, the Seattle Mariners are bringing back first baseman Josh Naylor on a five-year deal worth $90 to $100 million, which sounds about right, even without the Qualifying Offer attached. Naylor is still relatively young (28) and was very productive in 2025 (.295/.353/.462/131 wRC+, 3.1 WAR), but the price tag is a reminder of the limitations of the value of true 1B/DH-only types. That age and slash line for an average center fielder? That’s 5+ WAR and a $250 million contract, easy. For a shortstop? It’s $300 million, and probably climbing. In other words, I don’t know that Naylor’s deal is going to dictate much of the market – or even says much about it at all, except for the reminder that Pete Alonso may once again find the sledding a little tough – and I don’t know that we can characterize this as Naylor taking a big discount to stick with the Mariners. It just feels appropriate, given all the context (and feels like the Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extension, worth $500 million, was inflated significantly by his star power and theoretically offensive upside above and beyond what he’s shown (which I totally get)). It makes me wonder what would happen if the Cubs talked to Michael Busch about an extension, given that he just turned 28, but is still four seasons away from free agency. I think that team control is probably why the Cubs wouldn’t really be all that into an extension in the first place, but, if they were, it would probably be extremely modest, and mostly be geared toward guaranteeing Busch some chunk of change, and garnering reasonable team options for future seasons. (This is all an indirect reminder, too, of how extreme the value difference (both in contract terms, but also in terms of value to the team) is for someone like Moises Ballesteros if he can catch part-time, or if he cannot.) Last night’s Naylor signing was a reminder that we could see some activity in free agency even before tomorrow’s Qualifying Offer acceptance deadline and Rule 5 Draft rostering deadline, but the Mariners also gave a reminder of some of the lower-tier movement we can expect to see over the next 36 hours:The Dodgers acquired minor league RHP Tyler Gough via a trade from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for RHP Robinson Ortiz.
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