In a high security lab in the shadow of the M25 in Surrey, the arm of a liquid handling robot tracks sideways as it carries dozens of samples of sheep and goat serum to be dipped in test fluid that will show whether the animals are infected with a disease.
These robots, and the scientists that work with them, are at the frontline of the UK’s protection against a possible future pandemic caused by “Disease X” – the term for a pathogen not currently known to science.
Just as Covid-19 five years ago and, decades before that, Bovine spongiform encephalopathy or mad cow disease, came out of the blue, another new pathogen could emerge at any time with devastating consequences for animals, humans or both.
Scientists across the world are concerned about the next Disease X because of its “unknown unknown” qualities – without previous history, there would be no existing tests or vaccines to tackle it in those crucial early days.
After Covid, which surprised scientists for spreading rapidly often without symptoms, the World Health Organisation urged global governments to prioritise research into Disease X to be better prepared for the next pandemic, including monitoring the outbreak of new viruses in animals that could make the leap to humans.
And in the UK, surveillance for Disease X is being led by the Government’s new National Biosecurity Centre, which within the next 10 years will be based at two major redeveloped campuses, one in Harlow, north London for the human side, under the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), and another in Weybridge, Surrey, for the animal side, where the existing Animal and Plant Health Agency [APHA] is situated.
The hunt for the next disease
The i Paper was this week given exclusive access to the work being carried out in Weybridge to hunt for the next Disease X.
“We use the term Disease X to describe an unknown disease or an unknown pathogen, so in our case, it may be animals that are falling ill, and we don’t yet know what the cause is,” says Dan Horton, head of APHA’s virology department.
“And it’s a particular concern because in contrast to some of the big diseases that we know about, like bird flu and foot and mouth, they are a concern of course, but we know we have tests that work and we’ve got contingency plans.
“Disease X is more of a challenge because when it arrives, we will need to work out what’s causing it and then design the tests, and implement them as quickly as possible.”
Since the pandemic, the Government has worked to establish two campuses to combat any future outbreak (Photo: Charles Krupa/AP)In this Disease X scenario, an animal showing signs of illness would be tested – using blood samples taken from those still alive, or tissue taken during post mortem for those that have died – for existing pathogens.
The APHA scientists and robots can test for around 150 existing viruses and bacteria. If all of those were eliminated, the suspicious pathogen would be a candidate for Disease X, with other agencies in government notified immediately and specialist groups of experts stepped up to prepare a response, as they were during Covid.
Scaled up testing
The liquid handling robots in the Weybridge lab, which on the day of The i Paper visit are testing for the bacteria which causes the infectious disease brucellosis in dogs, sheep and goats, could be scaled up in a Disease X outbreak scenario to carry out tests on 80,000 samples every week.
In this outbreak scenario, the APHA would also work closely with the UKHSA, which conducts its own Disease X surveillance work in respiratory wards and intensive care units in the NHS, to share any common symptoms to check if the pathogen had become zoonotic – when a virus makes the leap from animals to humans.
And by spotting cases early, tests and vaccines could be developed to protect the rest of the animal or human population.
Horton adds: “Sometimes it may be individual cases [in animals] that are unusual, so in a postmortem examination, we would use traditional techniques to try and diagnose a disease.
“The other way it might show up is we may see patterns of disease. We have a surveillance intelligence unit here at APHA which analyses data of diseases over a period of time.
“And so if there are increasing cases, particularly cases where the symptoms are shown, such as mastitis, which is inflammation or infection in the udder of ruminants…but there’s no known cause, then that would be something that should and could be investigated.”
The creation of the NBC is of high importance to protecting the UK – it was unveiled as part of Sir Keir Starmer’s National Security Strategy in June – and Chancellor Rachel Reeves committed more than £1bn to upgrading facilities in Weybridge over the course of the next spending review period.
It is also crucial to Starmer and Reeves’ holy grail of economic growth, because the UK’s food and farming sector is dependent on the health of its livestock.
‘Climate change is driving the progression of diseases’
Dr Jenny Stewart, senior science director at APHA and lead for the National Biosecurity Centre, says: “The National Biosecurity Centre is obviously a really large strategic investment that’s going to be made into the capability that we deliver out of the Weybridge site.
“And when I talk about capability…what we’re talking about is a combination of the brilliant people, the fantastic scientists, with their deep expertise, their skills and their knowledge, and then giving them the right pieces of kit … [and] the really high-tech laboratories and animal facilities that they need.
“We know that the threat of some of these diseases we do know about is increasing, because climate change is driving the progression of those diseases towards the UK and our borders.
“We also know that that threat of unknown unknowns, that Pathogen X, that disease we don’t know about, or is new, is going up alongside the risk of those that we do know about.
“And that is driven by the world that we live in with travel, and the way in which goods and products move around our global system.”
Horton says a big part of their regular work is to establish freedom from already existing diseases that can damage herds and flocks.
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He adds: “Some of the diseases we work on are a problem not just because of animal welfare and economic impact in the UK, but they also prevent our ability to trade, and that can have a huge impact.
“The UK trade in livestock and animal byproducts is worth something like £16bn, so it’s a really important thing.”
Scientists at the APHA already test for and monitor the progression of major animal and bird diseases such as avian influenza, which has spread through wild bird and poultry populations in the UK since 2022 and bluetongue, a disease affecting herds of cattle and sheep and has caused an outbreak in Britain and Europe since 2023, as well as other pathogens which could emerge in livestock and wild animals like bats.
The general public can play their part too in the hunt for Disease X.
Anyone who spots a dead bat in the wild is urged to submit it, via the Bat Conservation Trust’s website, to the APHA’s passive bat surveillance programme, which monitors cases of lyssavirus, or its close relative rabies, in bat populations in the UK.
The programme has been running since 1986, but this form of “citizen science”, where the public contributes to scientific research, has become more popular in recent years.
People can also report sightings of dead wild birds to the APHA.
Undoubtedly the popularity of the Covid dashboard, which at the height of the pandemic was viewed by Britons tens of millions of times a day, has helped the public engage with how viruses affect animal and human populations.
In fact, the APHA has been running dashboards for cases of diseases in bats, birds, pigs, cattle and sheep for the past eight years, before the pandemic.
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Horton says: “These dashboards are a way of giving information back. We recognise that sending a sample in and never hearing anything again can be frustrating, so these dashboards are an important way of demonstrating the data and showing people what’s done with it.
“I suggest that people should be alert but not alarmed. I think that’s the most important thing.
“We can try and provide some reassurance in a sense, but we can’t hide the fact that there is increasing disease threat globally.”
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