Two Premium Relievers Have Opted Out: Robert Suarez and Edwin Diaz ...Middle East

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Two Premium Relievers Have Opted Out: Robert Suarez and Edwin Diaz

Important insofar as these are relatively big names on the free agent market and impactful arms now available, but less so insofar as none of this is a surprise: top-tier closers Robert Suarez and Edwin Diaz have opted out of their contracts with the Padres and Mets, respectively.

Suarez, 34, had two years and $16 million remaining on his deal with the Padres, so it’s not at all a surprise that he’s opting out. He will be able to blow away that guarantee in free agency, and the Average Annual Value is going to go way up, too. Suarez posted his second straight sub-3 ERA season with the Padres in 2025, and saw his strikeout rate climb to 27.9%, with his walk rate falling to just 5.9%. He did get hit hard at times, and, paired with his age, that’s probably what suitors will use to talk his price tag down a bit. The 99 mph fastball will be the primary counterpoint.

    The Padres could make Suarez a Qualifying Offer (about $22 million for 2026), but given their financial situation, they may fear that he would accept. I tend to think he could still do better on a total guarantee in free agency, but maybe draft pick compensation would drag him down. Close call either way.

    Diaz, 31, had two years and $38 million remaining on his deal with the Mets, and it won’t be difficult for him to top that guarantee either, even if the AAV might not improve. After taking a step back in 2024 (returning from injury), Diaz resumed being an absolute monster in 2025, posting a 1.63 ERA (2.28 FIP) over 66.1 innings. He struck out 38.0% of the batters he faced, and walked just 8.0%. His 4.6% barrel rate was also excellent, and he still sits in the 97/98 mph range.

    Like Suarez, Diaz is eligible to receive a Qualifying Offer from his team, which would tie him to draft pick compensation in free agency. I tend to think Diaz is definitely going to get a QO. He will still be plenty attractive to suitors, but it’s a factor to weigh.

    As for the Cubs, well, I think you know where this goes. They absolutely could use an impact reliever at the back end of the bullpen – who couldn’t? – but, outside of an unsuccessful run at Tanner Scott last offseason, this front office simply does not pay top dollar for relievers (especially if they’re tied to a QO). And, rather than signaling a turning point in philosophy, Scott’s struggles this year with the Dodgers might simply re-harden the Cubs against that kind of pursuit going forward.

    That is all to say, I really don’t see the Cubs committing top dollar on a multi-year deal for a reliever like Suarez or Diaz, much as we might love to see them on the Cubs. I would call Diaz a “no chance” and Suarez a “pretty darn unlikely but conceivable.” There were some very speculative rumors attaching the Cubs to Suarez at midseason, though I don’t know how real those actually were. So, yeah, I still think both guys are unlikely.

    Instead, the Cubs will likely try once again to recreate the success they’ve had pretty much every year going back a decade, pairing modest veteran moves with reclamation projects and youngsters. It’s typically hard to argue with the results. They could try to get bounce-back, big-name types like Devin Williams or Ryan Helsley within that framework, for what it’s worth.

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