Hoerner’s Value, Keller’s Future, Mutual Options, and Other Cubs Bullets ...Middle East

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Hoerner’s Value, Keller’s Future, Mutual Options, and Other Cubs Bullets

Please tell me you watched the Bears game yesterday. That was UNREAL. One of the wildest games in years, with the Bears blowing a huge lead late – in large part because of a brutally bogus call on a should-have-been-game-ending-pick-6 – and then somehow summoning the moxy to turn it right back around into a last-minute win.

The MLB offseason has officially arrived, and this is the slate of dates and deadlines if you missed it or want to brush up. The first wave of deadlines comes on Thursday, when free agents can start signing with new teams, when most options decisions must be completed, and when Qualifying Offers must be submitted. Nico Hoerner, who ran away with the Gold Glove at second base in the NL this year, says that he was still feel the after-effects of his flexor tendon surgery for parts of this season, so he’s looking forward to getting back to “full, full strength” this offseason (Marquee). If that was Hoerner still in recovery mode, man, how good is he going to be next year? For me, it’s a reminder that Hoerner very likely could still be a plus defender at shortstop. He just happens presently to be on a team with Dansby Swanson. © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images A great read here on all that Nico Hoerner does well, and what he provides for the Cubs:

As Cubs try to reach the next level, building around Nico Hoerner is a must t.co/148j875uQu

    — Patrick Mooney (@PJ_Mooney) October 31, 2025 A reminder about Hoerner’s performance from that piece: “Statcast placed him in the 96th, 97th, 98th or 99th percentile in base-running value, fielding value, fielding range, and strikeout and whiff percentages, respectively. He finished the regular season with a .297 batting average, 178 hits and 29 stolen bases. With runners in scoring position, he hit .371, which tied for second in the majors.” Hoerner has also averaged 4.4 WAR the last four seasons. Hoerner, 28, will be a free agent after the 2026 season, an extra year of control the Cubs got by way of an extension signed ahead of the 2024 season. Trying to re-up with Hoerner this time around figures to be a very pricey proposition indeed. He’s earned it. Outgoing free agent Brad Keller reinvented himself this year as a dominant back-end reliever, and he should do well in free agency. He sends his love to Chicago and his teammates:

    View this post on Instagram

    A post shared by Bradley Keller (@brad_keller13)

    I have no doubt the Cubs would love to have Keller back, and I have little doubt Keller would love to stick around in a place where he had so much success and was well-appreciated. But you know the rub: Keller is likely going to get a healthy multi-year deal, and the Cubs just don’t sign guys like Keller to multi-year deals after big relief seasons. … unless the Cubs see the potential to convert Keller back into a starting pitcher. He wouldn’t be the first former starting pitcher to kinda roam the wilderness for a bit, figure some things out in relief, and then go back to starting with some new tools in the toolbox (especially since he’s only 30). I think it’s a conversation worth having, though if Keller wants to go that route, he probably will find quite a few suitors out there willing to give him a shot. And, since he comes with the fall-back of relief, I could see some teams actually getting pretty aggressive to sign him to a deal that is a touch pricey for a one-year breakout reliever, but dirt cheap if he turns a corner as a starter (maybe three years and $36 million? Clay Holmes got three years and $38 million from the Mets to do a conversion – which largely worked – and he also got an opt out after the first two years). Padres righty Michael King is a free agent after reportedly declining his half of a mutual option, which is a good opportunity for the annual reminder: mutual options are just deferred money in the form of a buyout. If the player wants the deal at that price, the team probably doesn’t. And if the team wants the player at that price, the player probably doesn’t. And even if the number is pretty darn close, the sides can just negotiate that after the buyout, which the player is going to want. You’re gonna hear about options decisions playing out over the next few days, but the mutual ones? They are not news. (Example: the Cubs and Justin Turner have a mutual option, but we already know the outcome.) The only kinda-sorta exception is where the “mutual” options aren’t actually mutual in form – i.e., the player and the team aren’t deciding on precisely matching terms. But you wouldn’t really call that a mutual option. It’s like the Cubs and Shōta Imanaga. They each have individual and distinct options decisions to make. David Laurilla’s Sunday Notes are always a fun read at FanGraphs, and I particularly appreciated this old timey bit:

    “Players born on today’s date include Dutch Zwilling, who sandwiched two strong seasons with the Federal League’s Chicago Whales between a pair of brief stints with the Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs. Zwilling put up a 141 wRC+ over 1,184 plate appearances as a Whale, while going a combined 22 for-140 with the AL and NL entities. He and Rollie Zeider are the only players to perform for all three Chicago clubs.”

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