Two-child benefit cap divides voters – but support for scrapping it is growing ...Middle East

Voters are split over whether the government should end the two-child benefit limit, indicating a softening of what was previously strong public opposition to removing the cap.

Polling, seen by The i Paper, has revealed an apparent shift in public opinion over whether ministers should scrap the policy.

The cap, imposed under the Tory government, stops parents on benefits from claiming any child welfare payments for more than two children.

Campaign groups have repeatedly argued reversing would be the most effective way to reduce child poverty – something this Labour government has pledged to do.

And the issue is hugely contentious for Sir Keir Starmer and his Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, who have resisted sustained political pressure to scrap the cap at a cost of more than £3bn.

Cap disliked by Labour MPs

It is hugely unpopular among Labour MPs are opposed to the cap – including education secretary Bridget Phillipson who earlier this month said the cap has had a “devastating impact” and there was a “real urgency” to lifting it.

It was also the subject of the first rebellion faced by the Prime Minister, who suspended seven Labour MPs who voted for an amendment to scrap the cap in July last year.

The Government has dragged its feet over the issue and the Chancellor is understood to still be looking at the policy ahead of her upcoming Budget, with no final decision taken.

No10 has always argued that, while Labour MPs may be in favour of removing the arbitrary limit, their views are out of touch with public support for keeping it.

In September, YouGov polling of just over 7500 adults revealed 59 per cent believed the cap should be kept. And this level of support for retaining the measure has been consistent across several YouGov surveys.

But a new survey of 8000 people by Survation shows net support for abolishing the limit is 33 per cent, with 34 per cent opposing the move. A further 26 per cent were neither against nor in favour of removing the limit.

It suggests that public opinion has shifted considerably.

But this latest poll, carried out on behalf of campaign group 38 Degrees, indicated a possible shift in opinion when voters were given more context.

Voters were told researchers believe abolishing the cap would be the quickest and most cost-effective way to lift children out of poverty, but others argue it would be too expensive and unfair to families without children. They were then asked whether they supported removing the limit.

Of those who said yes, a higher proportion were among those aged 25 to 44-years-old – where more than 40 per cent support removing the cap.

Some 42 per cent of Labour 2024 voters also back removing the limit, as well as 43 per cent of those planning to still vote Labour and 42 per cent of those planning to vote Green.

Abolishing the cap best way to help child poverty

Campaign group 38 Degrees said the polling calls into question the government’s belief that the public do not want to scrap the policy.

Matthew McGregor, CEO said: “This poll showing that opposition to scrapping the cap has evaporated sends a clear message to government – doing the right thing won’t come with a political price.

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“We know from our research with thousands of people since the election that the public want those in power to tackle the scourge of child poverty.”

It comes as research from progressive think tank the Resolution Foundation warned anything short of abolishing the cap entirely would undermine the government’s pledge to lower child poverty.

Some compromise measures have been mooted, such as lifting the cap only for families in work, children under school age, or introducing some kind of tapering.

But the Resolution Foundation said any option which only partially reforms the two-child limit would “still leave child poverty rates higher at the end of the forecast than in 2024-25”.

This, they said, would be inconsistent with the Government’s election promise to deliver an “ambitious child poverty strategy” – which is expected to be published in the next few weeks.

The report maintains that fully scrapping the two-child limit could lift 330,000 children out of poverty today and prevent a further 150,000 from falling into poverty by 2029-30, at a cost of £3.5 billion.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is reportedly considering scrapping the cap in next month’s Budget. To do so would cost £3.5bn a year, however, and the Chancellor is struggling to fill a financial gap of upto £30bn which is likely to mean tax rises and cuts.

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