Two Promising Stats & Two Concerning Stats For the Undefeated Chicago Bulls ...Middle East

Just like everyone predicted, the Chicago Bulls have started the year 3-0.

Billy Donovan’s team has picked up three consecutive victories over Eastern Conference squads that many projected to finish ahead of the Bulls this year. It’s made for the organization’s best start in four years … and it’s also made many hungry fans start to believe.

Look, the last thing I’m going to do is tell anyone not to be excited about an undefeated start. The Bulls are undeniably more fun to watch right now than they have been in years. I’ll take that! At the same time, we’re only one week into the season. There is a lot of basketball left to play, so staying level-headed is key.

Let’s discuss two stats that highlight why fans should be optimistic and two stats that remind us why we still have a lot to learn about this group. We’ll start with the positive.

Two Promising Stats for the Chicago Bulls …

69.6 AST%

While I can not sit here and say that I’ve watched every second of every team this season, I feel pretty confident saying the Chicago Bulls have produced some of the best ball movement in the league. The offensive synergy has been remarkably impressive, especially when we consider the youthful nature of this group. They all seem to understand the importance of making quick decisions and moving with purpose off the basketball.

Indeed, this has led the Bulls’ offense to a 69.6 assist percentage, which is the second-highest mark among all teams. The only squad that has outperformed them in this department is the Golden State Warriors, who practically ushered in the era of ball movement we see today.

One of the main reasons the Bulls have started the year 3-0 is because of this equal opportunity play style that attacks opposing defenses from all directions. The Bulls constantly have multiple ball-handlers on the floor who can initiate action and ensure that the team remains active in transition. Obviously, Tre Jones and Josh Giddey are carrying a bulk of the workload right now, but this team benefits from having a slew of role players who are familiar with running offense. Ayo Dosunmu and Nikola Vucevic are two guys with plenty of experience setting up teammates. Heck, even Kevin Huerter has been a pretty underrated playmaker over the years, averaging roughly 3.0 assists per game during his career.

Nevertheless, this all comes down to the team’s overall buy-in to head coach Billy Donovan’s offensive identity. You have to be willing to hustle off the ball, whether the rock finds you or not. You have to be willing to sacrifice your good shot for a teammate’s great shot. The Bulls’ willingness to do this is why they have started the year with a 55.2 effective field goal percentage, which is Top 12 in the league.

41.8 Percent of Shots at the Rim

The highest percentage shot a team can create is at the rim, and the Chicago Bulls understand that. According to Cleaning the Glass, 41.8 percent of the Bulls’ field goals over their first three games have come in the restricted area. Only the Orlando Magic and San Antonio Spurs have higher marks – aka the teams that have two of the most physically imposing young players in the league (Paolo Banchero for the Magic, Victor Wembanyama with the Spurs).

This has so far led to the Bulls averaging 56.0 points in the paint per game, which is the seventh-most. It’s pretty exciting to see their rate of attempts at the rim this high when we also consider the assist percentage above. I think this speaks to the continued emphasis on attacking in transition, as well as cutting more frequently in the halfcourt. For what it’s worth, the Bulls have started the year with the seventh-highest points per possession off cuts, per NBA Stats.

This high rim rate also further underscores the sheer number of ball-handlers the Bulls have to choose from. Coby White, Josh Giddey, Ayo Dosunmu, and Tre Jones are all more than capable of attacking defenses off the bounce. Heck, even Matas Buzelis has shown increasing improvement in that department this season. The Bulls have averaged 63.3 drivers to the rim per game, which is the single-most in the NBA so far this season.

At the end of the day, you have to respect the Bulls’ versatile offense. Not only are they putting pressure on the defense by sharing the ball extremely effectively, but they are also repeatedly attacking the basket and hunting shots in the paint. Good stuff.

The Concerning Stats for the Chicago Bulls …

26.3 Opp 3P%

Opposing teams have shot only 26.3 percent from downtown against the Chicago Bulls to begin the season. At first glance, I know this may appear like a promising number, but I fear that some positive regression is right around the corner.

The Pistons and Magic were both abysmal from long range in their first two performances, combining for only a 10-48 effort from downtown. Orlando’s 3-24 night, in particular, is currently the single-worst shooting game of the season by any team. Detroit’s 7-24 performance is the 19th-worst. For reference, there have been 106 games played thus far as of writing.

Some are going to argue that the Bulls have played stiff defense and thus deserve credit for holding their opponents to this league-low number. They’ll also point out that Chicago finished with the second-lowest opponent three-point percentage last season, as well. But I genuinely struggle with that. A 26.3 percent success rate is ridiculously low, folks. The Thunder led the way last year by holding opponents to 34.2 percent from downtown. Even if the Bulls’ defense does manage to keep their opponents from lighting it up behind the arc, we’re still talking about some inevitable improvement.

I mean, Bulls opponents have shot only 27.3 percent on their wide-open attempts this season. Has Chicago at least allowed the fewest number of wide-open attempts thus far? Yes, which is somewhat encouraging. But, even then, they have played the team that has averaged the fewest 3PAs per game and the 9th-fewest 3PAs per game. It hasn’t necessarily been that hard to limit those wide-open looks.

At the end of the day, we are going to need a MUCH greater sample size before we can assume this Bulls’ defense is trending up. This feels especially true when we factor in that they’ve allowed 64.7 points in the paint per game, which is the single-most in the NBA (they were dead-last in this category last year, too). If teams begin to improve behind the arc AND the Bulls continue to allow so much action at the rim, this defense is going to look a lot more like the group we all feared.

18.7 TOVs

For all the good we have seen offensively, the turnover trouble from the preseason has remained. The Chicago Bulls have coughed up the ball 18.7 times per game, which is the second-most in the league.

Now, I think it’s worth noting that higher-paced teams are almost always going to be prone to more turnovers. With that in mind, I can live with Chicago making mistakes more frequently than other teams. I believe the ability to tire opponents out with tempo can outweigh some of the potential issues that come with turning the ball over. Nonetheless … this is still too much.

Especially as teams begin to exchange some twos for threes, the possession battle will become that much more important. It’s also not as if this “elite” Bulls defense has started the year forcing any of their own turnovers to make up for things. They have averaged just 12.0 forced turnovers in the first three games, which is 29th in the NBA and ahead of only the severely banged-up Indiana Pacers.

Again, I’m not even saying the Bulls have to be among the Top 10 teams in fewest turnovers, but not creeping closer to league average in the coming weeks could eventually catch up to them.

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