What Do the Chicago Bears’ Playoff Odds Look Like? ...Middle East

It is never too early to talk about the Chicago Bears’ playoff odds in my world, so we’re gonna do it today, and no one will stop me.

NFC North Standings:

1. Green Bay Packers: 4-1-12. Detroit Lions: 5-23. CHICAGO BEARS: 4-24. Minnesota Vikings: 3-3

FOUR-GAME WINNING STREAK! Week 7 Recap | Grades |24-Hour Rule

For the first time in a long time, the Chicago Bears aren’t cellar dwellers in the NFC North. That spot in the standings is being held down by the Minnesota Vikings.

The further we are removed from that Week 1 collapse on Monday Night Football, the more I think about how that Bears team let one slip away. In a way, it reminds me of how it lost in Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season. I hope the Bears bounce back against the Vikings later this year in the same way they did against the Packers in 2018.

NFL Playoff Picture

This is what the NFL playoff picture looks like after seven weeks of the 2025 season:

Who are the Super Bowl favorites after Week 7? pic.twitter.com/dG5UpbMz0z

As of right now, Chicago’s football team is squarely on the bubble. The NFL’s official website currently has the Bears’ playoff probability at 26 percent. It is the second-highest percentage among teams currently on the outside looking in at the postseason picture right now. Only the Atlanta Falcons (32 percent) have better odds of making the playoffs. I imagine much of that is rooted in the Falcons’ chances at winning a wide-open NFC South.

Even still … the Bears are currently in the No. 8 spot with a wild-card berth within grasp. The idea of Chicago’s football team making a run at a playoff spot felt far-fetched in January. So I have no problem thinking about the playoff race in October, even if it is so early in the season.

Bears Playoff Odds (via ESPN)

Let’s check out the latest Bears playoff odds from ESPN, whose Football Power Index provides updated odds for every team to make the playoffs, win its division, and win the Super Bowl.

Chicago Bears Playoff Odds (ESPN):

In case you’re curious, ESPN’s FPI has the Kansas City Chiefs as the most likely Super Bowl winner, with odds of making it to the big game sitting at 26.4 percent and a 15.9 percent chance of winning it all. It is wild to think about the Chiefs winning a Super Bowl right now because K.C. is currently on the outside looking in at the playoff picture. If the season ended today, the Chiefs would be left out of the dance because the Jacksonville Jaguars own the head-to-head tiebreaker because of their win on Monday Night Football in Week 5. OPE!

As for the Bears, my big takeaway here is that they don’t have the longest odds to make the postseason dance among NFC North teams. I’m so used to seeing the Bears playoff odds painting a completely bleak picture, so this is refreshing to see.

More Bears Playoff Odds:

Let the record show that ESPN isn’t the only show in town. Other sites have looks at the Bears’ playoff odds. Let’s take a look at some of them.

For instance, FTN — which uses DVOA ratings to help cook up its postseason percentages — has the Bears playoff odds at 33 percent. By FTN’s numbers, Chicago also has a 5.3 percent chance of winning the division. The Bears’ best path to making the postseason will likely be via the wild card, where FTN gives the team a 27.9 percent chance of sliding in that way. This team hasn’t made the postseason since 2020, when it became the first NFC team to make the playoffs as a No. 7 seed. It was a mostly forgettable playoff game, so it is easy to forget that it was even a thing.

Also, The Athletic has a playoff simulator that shows the Bears with a 28 percent chance to make the playoffs. Here is the breakdown:

Chicago Bears Playoff Odds (The Athletic):

How important is Sunday’s game against the Baltimore Ravens? A win would boost the Bears playoff odds to 41 percent. That would be good. But if they lose, it would drop the team’s odds of making it into the postseason to 23 percent. Chicago’s football team would still have 10 games to make up ground in the hunt for the postseason. So this isn’t a paragraph of gloom and doom. Instead, it is a snapshot exploring how things can swing with just one game.

Let’s close this look at the 2025 Chicago Bears playoff odds with this thought: While it remains far too early to start making plans for the postseason, it is never too early to enjoy a 4-2 start. Sure, the 2024 Bears were off to a 4-2 start, too. However, this team isn’t that team. And while this team might not make the playoffs, it won’t be because of the same reasons that last year’s team missed the boat.

At a minimum, looking at Bears playoff odds now makes me feel better about not being neck deep in 2026 NFL Draft prospect fits. And it sure as heck beats drumming up interest in the NFL Tank Standings.

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