Stat, Viz, Quiz: Ange’s Agony and Man Utd’s xG Improvement ...Middle East

Stat, Viz, Quiz is the Opta Analyst football newsletter. This week’s edition looks at Nottingham Forest, Manchester United, and Champions League wins.

It felt like Ange Postecoglou spent more time fighting for his job than settling into it during his 39-day spell as Nottingham Forest boss.

The Australian’s short time at the City Ground came to an end on Saturday after Forest’s 3-0 home defeat by Chelsea, making it the second shortest reign for a permanent manager in Premier League history, while it is also the earliest in a season a Premier League club has dismissed two managers, with Nuno Espírito Santo leaving Forest in early September.

We’ll take a look at Postecoglou’s month and a bit in Nottingham in this week’s SVQ, while we will also see if there’s substance behind the form of Manchester United, who won back-to-back league games for the first time under Ruben Amorim with their victory at rivals Liverpool on Sunday.

We, of course, have our usual five-question quiz to tantalise the football section of your brain, while our Ask Opta question takes us to the Champions League.

Let’s begin in Nottingham, where change is seemingly not feared.

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STAT – Ange’s Agony

It feels like just yesterday that Ange Postecoglou was holding the Europa League trophy in his arms, taking in the adulation of being the first manager to win silverware for Tottenham Hotspur in 17 years.

Less than five months later, he was being sacked for the second time, having left Spurs at the end of last season, taken over at Nottingham Forest last month, and being dismissed after just eight games.

It might have seemed harsh to some, but Forest didn’t win any of the eight matches Postecoglou oversaw after he replaced Nuno Espírito Santo on 9 September.

A 3-0 loss at Arsenal in the Australian’s first game was followed by a chastening 3-2 defeat at Swansea City in the EFL Cup. Back-to-back draws against Burnley and Real Betis followed, before home defeats against Sunderland and Midtjylland. A 2-0 loss at Newcastle and Saturday’s 3-0 home defeat to Chelsea sealed Postecoglou’s fate.

It ended his reign at just 39 days, the second shortest for a permanent manager in Premier League history, and the shortest to be ended during a season, with the only person to be at a club for a shorter period being Sam Allardyce, who left Leeds United after relegation in 2022-23 having only signed on a short-term deal.

Postecoglou was also the first manager to see his team score only one goal in his first five Premier League matches in charge since Sean Dyche at Burnley in 2014. By some level of coincidence, Dyche was announced as Forest’s third manager of the season on Tuesday morning.

In fairness to Forest, they played quite well on Saturday, with the 3-0 scoreline somewhat flattering Chelsea. It was the first time Forest have had 2+ xG in a game and not scored in the Premier League since earning promotion in 2022.

That said, Forest have failed to score in three successive top-flight home games for the first time since October 1998.

There was also their inability to deal with set-pieces. Nottingham Forest conceded 11 set-piece goals under Postecoglou in all competitions, more than twice as many as any other Premier League club in that time.

Two goals early in the second half from Chelsea took the game away from Forest, which is another thing the former Spurs manager has struggled with. Since the start of 2023-24, no Premier League boss has seen their side concede more goals in the opening 10 minutes of the second half than Postecoglou (16).

As for Forest, it’s on to the next one, with all eyes on whether Dyche can bring back the positivity that was present through almost the entirety of last season.

VIZ – Are Manchester United Back?

Sunday felt like a big moment in the recent history of Manchester United after their 2-1 victory at Liverpool.

The excited celebrations of the fans, players and particularly Sky Sports commentator Gary Neville, were understandable after an impressive win at the home of the champions, recording their first victory at Anfield since January 2016 under Louis van Gaal, ending a run of nine league games without coming away with three points there (D5 L4).

It wasn’t just beating their old rivals, though. It was the general feeling that for the first time in a long time, consistency might be starting to creep in.

Having beaten Sunderland 2-0 before the international break, this was United’s second win in a row, making it back-to-back Premier League victories for the first time since winning their final two games of the 2023-24 season and their opening game of the 2024-25 campaign. Ruben Amorim’s men were the last of the 17 ever present sides since the start of last season to win two in a row in the top-flight.

The discourse around United is rarely balanced given the strength of feeling from all sides about one of the biggest clubs in the world, but suddenly it seems like Amorim’s so-called “stubbornness” about playing three at the back might not be the gigantic problem many made it out to be when results were poor.

It’s not just the back-to-back wins. United’s underlying numbers suggest they’re quite a good team, now.

Even prior to Sunday, they were underperforming against their expected points. Opta’s expected points model simulates the number of goals scored in each match using the expected goals (xG) value of every shot. It then simulates the outcome (win/draw/loss) 10,000 times per match. Each team’s expected points are calculated based on how often they win, draw, or lose across those simulations.

After their latest win, United are now matching their expected points (13), but are considered to be three places below where they would be if every team also matched theirs.

However, another sign that there is substance behind the Red Devils now is their rolling xG. As you can see from this week’s viz, from the last six games of the 2024-25 season and through the first eight of 2025-26, United have been consistently putting in a greater xG for than against, after a sustained period of not doing so pretty much since the early weeks of the 2023-24 season.

Can they sustain these levels? Their next three games are at home to Brighton, away to Nottingham Forest and away to Tottenham, all winnable for a team in form.

That guy on social media who is refusing to cut his hair until United win five games in a row might be getting excited, though it would be difficult to tell. Perhaps it would just be involuntary wobbling under the weight of his barnet.

QUIZ – Mateta Magic, Haaland Heroics, and Gakpo-st

Five questions to test your ‘ball knowledge’, as the kids say. Answers at the bottom of the page.

1. After his hat-trick against Bournemouth, Jean-Philippe Mateta has 51 goal involvements in the Premier League (43 goals, 8 assists), just the third player to reach 50+ for Crystal Palace. Who are the other two?

2. With his goal at Brighton on Saturday, Nick Woltemade became the fifth player to score 4+ goals in their first five appearances for Newcastle in the Premier League. Name any of the previous four to do so for the Magpies.

3. Erling Haaland has scored 11 goals in eight Premier League games this season. How many teams in the division have scored more than him (not including Man City)?

4. After their defeat to Aston Villa on Sunday, Spurs have made their poorest start at home since 2008-09, when they earned just one point from their opening four home games. How many points do they have from four home games this season?

5. Against Man Utd, Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo became only the second player on record (since 2003-04) to hit the woodwork three or more times in a Premier League match for Liverpool, after who did so against Chelsea in January 2024 (4)?

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Ask Opta

This week’s question comes from Stephen Ellard, who asks: “Pretty sure I know the answer to this, but which team has won the most games in Champions League history?”

Do you have a stat-based question you’d like Opta to answer in a future edition of SVQ? Email us at [email protected] or message us on X @OptaAnalyst with #AskOpta and we’ll pick the best one.

Answer:

We’ll assume your assumption and say yes; Real Madrid have won the most games in Champions League history. The 15-time winners of the European Cup/Champions League have won 201 of their 333 games since the competition was rebranded in 1992-93.

Next is Bayern Munich, with 183 victories, ahead of Barcelona (176), Manchester United (125), Juventus (114) and Chelsea (102).

Should Arsenal beat Atlético Madrid on Tuesday, they will become just the seventh team to record 100 wins in the Champions League.

Quiz Answers

1. After his hat-trick against Bournemouth, Jean-Philippe Mateta has 51 goal involvements in the Premier League (43 goals, 8 assists), just the third player to reach 50+ for Crystal Palace. Who are the other two?

Wilfried Zaha (96) and Eberechi Eze (57)

2. With his goal at Brighton on Saturday, Nick Woltemade became the fifth player to score 4+ goals in their first five appearances for Newcastle in the Premier League. Name any of the previous four to do so for the Magpies.

Les Ferdinand, Michael Owen, Loïc Rémy and Callum Wilson

3. Erling Haaland has scored 11 goals in eight Premier League games this season. How many teams in the division have scored more than him (not including Man City)?

Seven

4. After their defeat to Aston Villa on Sunday, Spurs have made their poorest start at home since 2008-09, when they earned just one point from their opening four home games. How many points do they have from four home games this season?

Four

5. Against Man Utd, Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo became only the second player on record (since 2003-04) to hit the woodwork three or more times in a Premier League match for Liverpool, after who did so against Chelsea in January 2024 (4)?

Darwin Núñez

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Stat, Viz, Quiz: Ange’s Agony and Man Utd’s xG Improvement Opta Analyst.

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