Setting aside the injury of it – which you can’t set aside, because I’m sure it’s awful – it had to absolutely suck for Justin Steele to sit on the sidelines for almost all of 2025, watching his teammates push to the playoffs, and then come up short in Game Five of the NLDS. That is a passionate, competitive dude, and I expect that it burned him up not to be able to contribute.
But I also expect that he channeled that burning into rehabbing from the elbow procedure that cost him most of the season. So far, it’s still all so good on Justin Steele’s rehab:
pic.twitter.com/bUfRYvkU3a
— Justin Steele (@J_Steele21) October 15, 2025Justin Steele is feeling great in his rehab so far
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) October 15, 2025“In 2017, when I had my first Tommy John (surgery), they pulled the ligament out of my forearm and used that — so that was my new UCL,” Steele said, per Marquee. “I remember relearning how to throw with the new hardware that was in my arm. That was the hardest part — the mental hurdle I had the first time (This time), it’s the same hardware, and it feels the same as five months ago, when I was throwing against the Rangers. So there really hasn’t been a mental hurdle. It’s just been putting my nose down, and just doing the work every day …. The rehab process has been pretty flawless to this point. I just started throwing (plyometric balls) this week. So I’ve been ripping plyos into the wall.”
You can see that in the clip above. Looks pretty good! I also enjoyed in the Marquee piece where Steele shared that he’s not supposed to throw above 60 MPH yet, and accidentally hit 64 mph.
If all continues to go flawlessly with Steele’s rehab, an April or May return to the Cubs is on the table. There will still probably be a cautious ramp-up, but so far, this is trending toward Steele being available as an important part of the rotation again next season.
I think the Cubs cannot necessarily plan their offseason around the idea that Steele will be a front-two rotation guy right out of the gate in 2026 – it may take him a little time to settle back in, assuming he comes back as the best version of himself at all.
That said, I do think the Cubs can reasonably plan their offseason around the idea that Steele will be part of the rotation for much of 2026. That is to say, while they perhaps cannot feel assured of a specific volume or caliber of performance, I don’t think, for the purposes of offseason maneuvering, that they have to treat Steele as though he doesn’t exist at all. It’s very, very likely that he’ll throw a lot of solid innings for the Cubs in 2026, and that should be part of the calculus on how to fill out the pitching group, where to allocate funds, etc. It’s one fewer arm that you’ll need, at a minimum.
The good news? Even if Steele were 100% on day one and an immediate ace, I’d STILL think the Cubs needed to go after an impact starting pitcher this offseason. So, hey, no change there!
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