Who do Americans blame for the government shutdown? ...Middle East

Whether or not it was legal – and there are doubts – President Trump’s decision to bypass Congress and shift money around in order to pay the U.S. military during the government shutdown was an adept political move.

Indeed, since the shutdown began, Democrats had used October 15th – the date troops were set to miss paychecks – as a pressure point, assuming Republicans did not want to be responsible for that happening.

Now, the GOP has sidestepped that hurdle, and Democrats remain, as Politico put it, “in a GOP shutdown vise.”

To that end, as the shutdown passes its third week, polls have begun capturing how Americans feel about the current situation, including who is to blame and who is handling it best.

Historically, the party in power tends to shoulder more of the blame, and that is true in this case, albeit with some caveats.

Roughly 4-in-10 (38%) voters blame Republicans, versus 31% blaming Democrats, and a similar 29% blaming both equally, per Quantus Insights polling.

A separate survey from Economist/YouGov pointed to similar findings, with 41% holding the GOP responsible, compared to 30% who blame Democrats, and roughly one-quarter (23%) blaming both parties.

Similarly, CBS News polling finds that by a 9-point margin (39% to 30%), Americans blamed Republicans more than Democrats

And yet, Democrats should approach these findings with caution. 

While neither party is held in high esteem right now, a multitude of other data points suggest Democrats may be on shakier grounds than their Republican colleagues.

That same CBS News survey showed that by 5-points (32% to 27%), Americans approved more of Trump’s handling of the shutdown than Congressional Democrats, while less than 3-in-10 (28%) Americans felt Democrats’ positions during the shutdown were “worth it.”

In that same vein, just 48% of Democratic voters feel that their party’s positions on healthcare subsidies is “worth a government shutdown.”

Given that AP-NORC polling indicates that a majority (54%) of U.S. adults – including 59% of Independents – believe that the shutdown is a major problem, it should worry Democrats that even their own voters are offering less than full-throated support to a growing concern for voters.

Simply put, at a time when Democrats were already struggling with dismal approval numbers and perceptions of its ineffectiveness, they can barely afford to hemorrhage support, even if both parties are taking a hit.

Further, when respondents were asked which party voters trust to steer the country, Republicans led by 7-points (44% – 37%), per the aforementioned Quantus Insights survey.

And, on the all-important issues of the economy and inflation, Democrats continue to trail Republicans.

This is the continuation of a trend where even though voters disapprove of Trump’s policies – be it on the shutdown or growing pessimism over the economy and cost of living – Democrats remain unable to provide a viable alternative.

According to reporting by Politico, one recent poll showed that the GOP has a 4-point advantage on which party voters trust more to handle the economy, even though voters were 6-points more likely to blame Republicans for the shutdown.

Likewise, another survey cited by the news outlet shows that even though voters were 11-points more likely to blame Republicans for the shutdown, those same voters gave the GOP a 2-point lead on handling inflation and the cost of living. 

These come despite overall gloom on the economy, with three-quarters of Americans believing Trump is not focused enough on lowering prices, and just 40% approving of Trump’s economic approach overall, per CBS News.

Taken together, this contradiction underscores how challenging it will be for Democrats to navigate the shutdown “blame game” and to make their case ahead of midterms and 2028’s presidential election. 

They also give the lie to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s ill-advised words that the shutdown plays better politically for Democrats “every day” it goes on.

To be sure, if the shutdown persists past November 1st, when health insurance premiums are set to spike, or cause major problems with things such as air travel, it’s possible that these numbers will change.

Yet, there is no telling the direction sentiments will head in, especially with a president who wields the bully pulpit like no other president in U.S. history. 

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Reports are that a deal could be struck to preserve the Obamacare subsidies with changes such as higher income limits, or shutting the door for new enrollments.

Ultimately however, while Democrats may be in a slightly more precarious position, until the government reopens – and throughout the course of the current shutdown – both parties have work to do.

Republicans will need to demonstrate that they can competently lead, while Democrats have a considerable challenge in trying to prove to voters that they shut down the government for a worthy cause, and that they can present a viable alternative that goes beyond opposing Trump for opposition’s sake.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant. 

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