We’re at the midpoint of the 2025 college football season.
Week 7 has come and gone, and with it the margin for error for several College Football Playoff contenders. Week 8 promises to be another big week in the SEC, Big Ten and elsewhere as the best teams in the sport seek to separate themselves before the bracket is finalized in early December.
As always, this piece will seek to identify some popular narratives that have emerged from the previous week’s slate of games and see if they match up with what the underlying data is telling us. Last week, we discussed the Bill Belichick experiment coming to an end, buying low on Kansas State, backing Alabama to win the SEC, James Franklin’s likely exit from Penn State, Florida’s ongoing struggles and much more.
10 college football ideas to buy or sell after Week 7
Here’s what I’m buying or selling this week:
Selling: Georgia is a top-10 team
Georgia was dominant in the second half of its win over Auburn on Saturday night, but I wouldn’t say it was an impressive performance for the Bulldogs. They were inches away from going down 17-0 in the first half — a hole they realistically would have had a difficult time making it out of. Auburn’s complete and utter meltdown shouldn’t distract from the fact that Georgia averaged 4.3 yards per play in the win. It was yet another incredibly fortunate win for a Kirby Smart-led team who has had more close calls than usual this season.
Consider this: SEC teams who average under 4.5 yards per play in conference games since the start of the 2021 season have won those contests just 18.5% of the time. The Bulldogs could easily have 3 losses already entering Week 8 and probably should have at least 2.
Selling: Penn State’s next coach will be more successful than James Franklin
Penn State made the decision to fire James Franklin on Saturday. I certainly understand why — after years of not beating top-10 opponents, losing as a 20+ point favorite in back-to-back Big Ten games was too much for the administration to endure.
Here’s the problem: Why should Penn State think it will do any better than what Franklin accomplished over the last decade? The Nittany Lions have won 69% of their conference games since the start of the 2016 season. The only programs above Penn State in that regard are Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, Michigan and Oklahoma.
I get that Penn State thinks of itself as in that group, but the reality is Penn State has too many disadvantages to reasonably be in that neighborhood over a large sample of seasons. For one thing, resources have been a question — Franklin was tied for the 15th-highest paid coach in the country for 2025, per USA Today’s coaching salaries database. In the Big Ten alone, Ohio State, USC, Oregon and Nebraska all pay their coaches as much or more than Penn State. State College is also a much more difficult place to recruit to than what many other top programs have to offer. Penn State consistently hauled in top-15 or top-20 recruiting classes under Franklin, but rarely higher.
I don’t blame Penn State for wanting an eject button — the situation was becoming toxic and likely wasn’t salvageable. And yet, it seems unrealistic for Penn State to expect better than what it got from Franklin (6 10-win seasons and a CFP semifinal appearance last year) in its next head coach.
Buying: Mizzou is legit … but it has a fatal flaw
By some measures, Mizzou out-played Alabama on Saturday night. One metric I look to often, yards per play, gave a massive edge to Mizzou — 5.9 to 4.3. When you out-gain your opponent by that much on a yards-per-play basis, it’s very unlikely you’re going to lose. But turnovers and going 1-for-10 on third down doomed the Tigers to another disappointing loss against an elite opponent.
There’s quite a few positives to take from this game if you’re Mizzou, but almost all of them are on the defensive side of the ball. Holding Alabama to 4.3 yards per play speaks for itself — I want to address the offensive issues. Beau Pribula was really tested for the first time in his college career on Saturday and he struggled to push the ball down field. Of his 167 passing yards, 78 came on 3 plays. The rest of his 25 pass attempts netted just 3.56 yards a clip. Per PFF, on intermediate passes, Pribula was just 3-of-7 and tossed 2 interceptions. On short throws, he averaged 4.5 yards per attempt (his season-long average on those passes is 8.1 yards).
There’s a lot to like about this Mizzou team, but I left the Alabama game wondering if Pribula’s downfield deficiencies would prove to be a fatal flaw.
Buying: The end is near for Mike Norvell at Florida State
Florida State fell to 0-3 in ACC play on Saturday against Pitt. The Noles were favored by double digits and desperately needed to win to have any hope of building momentum in 2025 following losses to Virginia and Miami. Instead, the Noles have regressed to 1-10 in ACC play since the start of the 2024 season. Since Jordan Travis’s devastating leg injury against North Alabama at the end of the 2023 season, the Noles have won as many ACC titles as they have regular-season ACC games. SMU is 10-0 in the regular season against ACC opponents since joining the league, and yet the mighty Noles can’t seem to string together any measure of success at all.
All that to say, I think Florida State and Mike Norvell are headed for a separation in the not-too-distant future. Expectations are high at FSU and the standard has simply not been met under Norvell with the exception of its 13-0 regular season in 2023. If you remove that season from the equation, Florida State is 12-23 in ACC games since Norvell arrived in Tallahassee. That is unconscionable. Again, excluding the 2023 season, FSU ranks 13th out of the 14 schools who have been full-time members in every season since 2020. Only Boston College has won a smaller percentage of its games.
Buying: USC vs. Notre Dame is a Playoff eliminator
It’s somewhat surprising to see a game between USC and Notre Dame be this meaningful in the national landscape, but I think that’s where we’re at. USC’s win over Michigan last week means the Trojans are officially back in the CFP at-large hunt — at least for another week.
Notre Dame has been arguably the best team in the country since picking up its second loss of the season in Week 2, but another defeat would certainly end the Irish’s hopes of reaching the Playoff again in 2025. USC only has 1 loss so far, but it’s difficult to imagine the Trojans making the Playoff at 10-2 — though admittedly not impossible. USC does have a couple of other potential ranked opponents on its schedule in Nebraska and Oregon on the road. In all likelihood, though, the loser of this game will be almost certainly out of the CFP discussion for 2025 while the winner will have excellent odds of reaching the final bracket. If you like USC to win out right in this game, then sprinkling its CFP market (+310 on DraftKings) is certainly worth a look.
Selling: LSU’s offense can still get right
I’m still not seeing any signs of revival for LSU’s offense or Garrett Nussmeier in 2025. The Tigers now rank 74th in yards per play this season and are all the way down at No. 94 in yards per carry.
Coming out of the idle week, there was some hope that Nussmeier would look healthier against South Carolina at home in Week 7. However, Nussmeier attempted only 12 passes that traveled 10+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage in that game, per PFF. For the season, only 34% of his total passes fit into that category. For context, that number was closer to 40% last year. His year-over-year average depth of target has dropped from 9.5 to 7.9.
LSU’s running game was a little better against South Carolina, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. However, 89 of LSU’s 166 rushing yards came on just 2 explosive runs from Caden Durham and Ju’Juan Johnson. Explosive plays are great, but you’d like to see a bit more down-to-down consistency as well. Still, it’s a step in the right direction for an LSU rushing offense that ranks near the bottom of the country in EPA-per-rush for the full season.
I like the under in Vanderbilt vs. LSU this week. The Tigers’ defense is legit and might be the best unit Vanderbilt has faced all season.
Pick: Under 49.5 in Vanderbilt vs. LSU (-110 on bet365)
Buying: Indiana is a threat in the postseason
I think a lot of college football fans were still not quite believing in what Curt Cignetti has been building up until the second half in Eugene on Saturday. Myself included. Last year’s run was relatively easy to dismiss given the lackluster performances in big spots against Ohio State and Notre Dame with no other big wins to speak of. But now? Indiana looks like it’s pretty obviously the second-best team in the Big Ten and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Hoosiers give the Buckeyes a game in Columbus later this year.
Indiana is up to No. 6 in Game on Paper’s adjusted EPA-per-play metric. They’re up to No. 3 in SP+, roughly 3 rating points lower than No. 1 Ohio State. Fernando Mendoza looks every bit as good as Julian Sayin, if not better. Given the state of the Big Ten and what the rest of IU’s schedule looks like, it would be surprising for IU to not at least make the conference title game. If IU does meet Ohio State for a second time this season, I bet the Hoosiers are +150 or better to win the game. I’ll buy the Hoosiers to win the Big Ten at current market prices.
Pick: Indiana to win the Big Ten (+190 at DraftKings)
Buying: Ole Miss is overrated, as evidenced by the Washington State fiasco
I wrote a couple of weeks ago that Ole Miss is being overrated by the media with its top-10 ranking. In their very next game, the Rebels only beat a struggling Washington State team by 3 points. Perhaps Ole Miss was simply caught looking ahead to a massive road game in Athens this week. It’s certainly possible — and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Ole Miss win outright on Saturday, given the long list of questions I have about the Bulldogs as well.
But I continue to be confounded by the love for this Ole Miss team. Let’s review the résumé: 7-point win over Kentucky, 6-point win over Arkansas, 5-point win over LSU and a 3-point win over Washington State plus blowouts against also-rans like Tulane and Georgia State. What part of that says “top-10 team”? Is it the win over LSU, who has its own string of underwhelming results against programs like Clemson and Florida propping it up? Those narrow victories over Kentucky, Arkansas and Wazzu certainly aren’t doing much for my confidence in the Rebels heading into Athens on Saturday night. As much as I dislike this Georgia team, I think the Bulldogs will out-class the Rebels at home.
Pick: Georgia -6.5 (-105 on BetMGM)
Buying: Texas A&M could make the SEC Championship Game
Texas A&M looks like its on track for its best season since joining the SEC and maybe its most successful campaign in 3+ decades. Texas A&M won the Big 12 just once, all the way back in 1998 when the conference was in just its third year of existence.
This year, Texas A&M is at 6-0 with 3 SEC wins and a victory over Notre Dame already on its résumé. Aside from Alabama, who is also undefeated in SEC play, I would favor Texas A&M as the second most-likely team to reach the SEC title game this season. The Aggies do have 3 tough road games remaining at LSU, Mizzou and Texas, but assuming they can win at least one of those games and take care of business at home, they should be right in the mix for an SEC Championship Game berth. Given Texas A&M’s balanced statistical profile — this is a team with very few clear weaknesses — I think there’s a good chance the Aggies end the year with an 11-1 record.
Buying: Tennessee can keep up with Alabama
I’ve been skeptical of this Tennessee team, but I like the Vols’ chances in this matchup. Alabama’s offense was sneakily pretty bad against Mizzou. If you read the Georgia section above, you’ll recall a stat about SEC teams winning conference games just 18.5% of the time when they averaged 4.5 yards per play or less. That stat applies to Alabama’s performance in Week 7 against Mizzou, too.
Tennessee’s defense got ripped to shreds again last week by Arkansas, but the Razorbacks have done that to everyone they’ve played this year except Notre Dame. I think 9.5 points is way too much credit to give to an Alabama team that will be playing its fourth-consecutive game against a ranked opponent this weekend. Hopefully the Vols get healthier at cornerback this week, but regardless, I think Tennessee has enough to beat the number.
Pick: Tennessee +9.5 (-115 on FanDuel)
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