ROCHESTER, N.Y. – Ahead of an approaching low-pressure system out of Canada, mild warm air will keep Friday overnight temperatures in the mid-40s for Rochester and lower-40s for higher elevations. Clouds will start to enter the region after midnight and winds will stay out of the south/southwest around 5-10 mph. Moving into Saturday morning, the low-pressure system aloft will stall out over Western New York. Weakening is expected to occur heading into Saturday keeping us green on the Threat Tracker for the weekend. However, the center of this system may provide just enough lift for some counties to receive heavier rain and a few rumbles of thunder. Recent model runs have consistently put this system’s center, and subsequent heaviest rain, in counties west of Rochester. Counties east of Rochester will likely see lower rainfall amounts on Saturday. In general, counties west of Rochester could see around a 0.3” of rain on Saturday while counties east will see under this amount.
Along with rainfall totals, temperatures will also be split between counties west and east of Rochester on Saturday. Eastern Monroe, Ontario, Wayne and the eastern Finger Lakes may remain drier for the first part of Saturday which would allow highs to sit in the low to mid-60s, while those in Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming Counties may struggle to see past the upper-50s due to overcast skies and widespread rain. Scattered showers will linger over Western New York through Saturday night, keeping overnight temperatures in the upper-40s for most. Again, counties west of Rochester and into the westernmost portion of the Southern Tier may pick up heavier rain into the overnight hours of Saturday into Sunday. These areas may see total accumulations near 0.75” come Sunday morning.
Heading into Sunday, a Nor’easter will push up along the east coast. This will join with the previously mentioned stalled Canadian low. This Nor’easter will pull in the weaker low and provide further moisture off of the Atlantic to counties east of Rochester on Sunday.
This may deliver another batch of heavy rain, but this time to the southern Finger Lakes and further east. Cloud cover and widespread rain will keep temperatures relatively cool on Sunday near 60 degrees. Winds are expected to pick up a bit from this Nor’easter with surface winds out of the east around 15 mph. Showers will linger overnight on Sunday and temperatures are expected to stay in the mid-40s with winds continuing out the east at 10 to 15 mph.
First Alert Weather: Fall-like conditions include some weekend rain WHEC.com.
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