What We Learned About Craig Counsell’s Bullpen Preferences During the Wild Card Series ...Middle East

CUBS BULLPEN — I know it’s been a minute since we’ve gotten to watch Cubs playoff baseball — let alone Cubs playoff baseball with fans at Wrigley Field — but that was an unusually tense series, and it’s because both bullpens went absolutely nuts.

No, the Cubs bullpen isn’t as vaunted (or, let’s be honest, as talented) as the Padres’ electric group of relief arms, but they did one HELL of a job keeping all three games close. It genuinely felt — and wound up being true — that whichever team hit 3 runs first was going to win each game.

We don’t have a ton of turnaround time before the National League Division Series between the Cubs and Brewers begins (just over 24 hours!), but I did want to take a beat to look back on that series with the San Diego Padres, specifically at Craig Counsell’s bullpen usage and what we might’ve learned ahead of the next round.

So let’s look back at how that played out and start talking about roles ahead of the series with Milwaukee.

Cubs Bullpen: Wild Card Performance

Cubs Bullpen Game 1: 4.2 IP, 0H, 0ER, 0BB, 4K (literally 4.2 perfect innings)

In game one, we saw the seeds of Craig Counsell’s overarching pitching plan (for a do-or-die short series) coming together, with Daniel Palencia set up to be the mid-game/high-leverage/best-hitters reliever for multiple innings (a role he replayed in Game 3), plus Andrew Kittredge and Brad Keller set to bring it home (again, replayed in Game 3, albeit in a different order and with different circumstances).

Daniel Palencia was the standout arm in this game, to me, averaging nearly 100 MPH on his fastball and netting five whiffs and three called strikes out of 17 pitches (47 CSW% is elite).

Daniel Palencia, 101mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/DlClMzM60H

But Brad Keller also looked sharper in Game 1 (at least sharper than Game 3 …), averaging nearly 100 MPH on his sinker and four-seamer, in what was a stressfree ninth inning: groundout to shortstop (.140 xBA), pretty deep flyout to center (.520 xBA, but with the wind blowing in hard and PCA in center, that wasn’t quite so bad), called strikeout on an absolute dart to end the game:

Brad Keller, 97mph Paint. ?️? pic.twitter.com/IXulaAzPDG

Cubs Bullpen Game 2 (After Shota Imanaga left): 4.0 IP, 2H, 0ER, 1BB, 2K

Once the opener, Andrew Kittredge, and the real “starter,” Shota Imanga, left the game, the bullpen was once again excellent, allowing almost nothing over the final four frames. But with the Padres in full-on preservation mode, riding their best relievers, the Cubs’ offense didn’t have much of a chance. So, Counsell wisely used some of his secondary arms to keep the key guys healthy for what turned out to be very critical usage in Game 3.

In a longer, five-game series against Milwaukee, we’ll probably see more of this group than we did against San Diego, even if the game is closer/more winnable (until and unless elimination is on the table, at least). It’ll just be necessary.

That said, the starters will probably be given a slightly longer leash. Again, out of necessity, if nothing else.

As for Andrew Kittredge, he certainly “looked” okay to my eye, but facing Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Arraez for the second time in as many days, he did not have as much success: Tatis ripped a single (94.6 MPH EV), Arraez did too (89.6 MPH, .600 xBA), Merrill had a hard-hit sac fly, and Xander Bogaerts’ lineout was hit HARD: 100 MPH exit velocity, .670 xBA.

Cubs Bullpen Game 3: 5.0 IP, 5H, 1ER, 1BB, 4K

This is when Counsell’s script really came together (foiled only by Keller’s mini-implosion there in the ninth).

For any pocket of lefties the Cubs may face, however talented, Caleb Thielbar and Drew Pomeranz are his go-to guys. Not only have Thielbar (2.64 ERA) and Pomeranz (2.17 ERA) been nails all season long against all types of hitters, but they’ve both been ESPECIALLY brutal on lefties: LHH vs Thielbar (.213 wOBA), vs Pomeranz (.205 wOBA).

In between, Counsell again went to Daniel Palencia for the highest leverage moments against the toughest hitters in the *middle* of the game. And I gotta tell you, if Palencia can be that guy throughout the playoffs, coming in for 1.0+ inning when trouble is lurking or a fire needs to be put out, I will really love that usage. I don’t know if he can do that quite as often as every other game, but that’s one hell of a weapon to have at your disposal.

After that, Counsell wanted to let Keller finish the game with a 2.0 innings save, but it just wasn’t going to happen. Keller uncorked a wild pitch in the 8th inning, and then had an even more troubling ninth, giving up a solo homer and then plunking not one, but TWO batters with two strikes. And, of course, he was also seemingly bailed out on his first out by the home plate umpire, who called (what should have been ball four) strike three on a pitch below the zone shown on TV.

So instead, Andrew Kittredge came in and immediately got a groundout and a flyout to end the game.

Overarching Thoughts on the Cubs Bullpen

Bottom line, if you can take anything away from the Craig Counsell and the Cubs bullpen usage this series:

Beyond those five guys, I don’t think there’s much of a defined role. In other words, I don’t really know if we’ll see any of Mike Soroka, or Colin Rea, or Aaron Civale, or Taylor Rogers, or Javier Assad, in any *BIG TIME* moments. They may come in out of necessity, but I think Counsell’s trust tree is limited to those five above, and he’ll try to lean on them as much as possible.

Now, having said all that, we’re almost completely ignoring the fact that the Cubs are down one of their critical starting pitchers, Cade Horton, while both Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd do not seem particularly locked in. So it’s equally possible that some of those long-arm righties (Soroka, Rea, Assad) could be planned piggybacks after those lefty starters exit a game before facing any key righties for the third time. It’s also possible that Colin Rea could START tomorrow’s Game 1 matchup. We just don’t know.

Nonetheless, I think Craig Counsell managed the Cubs bullpen brilliantly throughout that series, and that those guys – for the most part – absolutely delivered.

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