Manchester United lost at the Gtech Community Stadium last week, but will their neighbours follow suit? We look ahead to Sunday’s late kick-off in the Premier League with our Brentford vs Man City prediction and preview.
The Opta supercomputer is backing Manchester City for victory at Brentford, with Pep Guardiola’s side given a 48.9% win probability. Guardiola’s next win in the Premier League will be his 250th. In just his 350th game in the competition, he could reach that figure in 74 fewer matches than any other manager. After beating Manchester United last week, Brentford could become the first team to beat both Manchester clubs in consecutive Premier League games since Tottenham Hotspur in January 1996.Erling Haaland was not happy after Manchester City were twice pegged back in a 2-2 UEFA Champions League draw with Monaco on Wednesday, though the Norwegian did at least continue his own sparkling form in front of goal, netting twice.
Haaland now has 52 goals in 50 Champions League appearances, nine more than any other player managed in their first half-century of games in the competition, and more than nine of the 51 clubs to reach 50 games in the tournament managed in that same span.
Having also scored twice in last weekend’s 5-1 rout of Burnley, Haaland has 11 goals in eight games across all competitions this season, while his eight Premier League goals in 2025-26 are double the next-most prolific players in the division (Antoine Semenyo, Jaidon Anthony and Igor Thiago all have four).
While Haaland is firmly on course to better his exploits from 2024-25, City will likely need to improve at the back if they are to mount a serious challenge for the Premier League title.
Pep Guardiola’s side visit the Gtech Community Stadium to face Brentford in Sunday’s late kick-off, and they had better be wary of Keith Andrews’ improving Bees.
Brentford beat Manchester United 3-1 last time out, taking advantage of a catalogue of errors from Ruben Amorim’s under-fire side as Thiago netted twice and was joined on the scoresheet late on by Mathias Jensen.
They could now become only the second team to face both Manchester clubs in back-to-back Premier League fixtures and take maximum points, with Tottenham Hotspur the only side to do so, back in January 1996 (4-1 versus Man Utd, 1-0 against Man City).
The Bees have now won four of their last six Premier League home games (D1 L1), including two of three under Andrews (D1). That comes after they endured an eight-match winless run on their own turf under Thomas Frank last season, failing to score on five occasions.
Many feared for Brentford when, in addition to Frank moving to Tottenham, they lost key players Bryan Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa, Christian Nørgaard and Mark Flekken in the recent transfer window.
But after some early teething problems, Andrews has his side playing a familiar brand of direct, efficient football. Indeed, while Brentford have attempted the joint-fewest shots in the Premier League this season (51), they rank joint-sixth for goals scored (nine), with only Man City (18.4%) bettering their 17.7% shot conversion rate.
City and Brentford have also scored the joint-most goals from fast breaks in the competition this season, with three apiece, so Sunday’s game could be something of an end-to-end affair.
Brentford will have to be clinical if they are to spring another surprise, but fortunately, they have one of the Premier League’s most in-form strikers in Thiago.
The Brazilian has scored five goals from just six shots on target in all competitions this season, and in the Premier League, he has netted four times from 10 total attempts, giving him the highest shot conversion rate of any player to register 10 or more shots (40%).
At the other end, Brentford could have their hands full against Phil Foden, who has scored seven times against them in the Premier League. He has only netted more often against Brighton & Hove Albion (eight), and six of his strikes against the Bees have come at the Gtech. Foden missed out on Thomas Tuchel’s latest England squad too, so may feel he has a point to prove.
Man City did pull within five points of the Premier League summit last week thanks to Liverpool’s defeat at Crystal Palace, but they have looked more vulnerable than in recent seasons.
City are the only team in the Premier League to spend more than half their total game time in a winning position this season (55.3%). However, they have spent over two hours in front across their last two away league games – at Brighton and Arsenal – and failed to win either match (D1 L1), while they also conceded a late equaliser at Monaco in midweek.
Should the visitors emerge victorious, Guardiola will reach a Premier League landmark in record time. He is hunting his 250th win as a manager in the competition, with Sunday’s game his 349th in charge of City in the division.
Arsene Wenger holds the record for the fewest matches required to reach 250 wins as a Premier League manager, with 423, so Guardiola could pass that mark in a staggering 74 fewer games.
Brentford vs Man City Head-to-Head
Man City have only lost on one of their four previous Premier League visits to Brentford (W2 D1).
And their only defeat at the Gtech came on the final day of the 2022-23 season, when they had already secured the Premier League title and rotated their team ahead of securing the FA Cup and Champions League trophies.
That win completed a Premier League double for Brentford over City, but since then, the Bees are winless in the clubs’ last four meetings in the competition (D1 L3).
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The Opta supercomputer is backing City to make it four Premier League games unbeaten on Sunday, with the visitors assigned a 48.9% chance of victory.
That does mean Brentford have over a 50% chance of earning something from the game, though. They won 27.2% of pre-match simulations, with 23.9% drawn.
In our latest Premier League season predictions, City are assigned a 9.8% chance of winning the title, behind Liverpool at 42.5% and Arsenal at 37.2%. Guardiola’s men finish in the top four in 61.3% of scenarios.
Brentford, meanwhile, have seen their chances of relegation drop to 8.8%, which is lower than their probability of making the top six (11.2%).
Brentford v Man City Predicted Lineups
Brentford: Caoimhín Kelleher, Aaron Hickey, Sepp van den Berg, Nathan Collins, Michael Kayode, Yehor Yarmoliuk, Jordan Henderson, Dango Ouattara, Mikkel Damsgaard, Kevin Schade, Igor Thiago.
Head coach: Keith Andrews
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Nico O’Reilly, Josko Gvardiol, Rúben Dias, Matheus Nunes, Nico González, Jeremy Doku, Phil Foden, Tijjani Reijnders, Sávinho, Erling Haaland
Head coach: Pep Guardiola
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Brentford vs Man City Prediction: Can Bees Spring Another Surprise? Opta Analyst.
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